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Author Topic: HI: Rasmussen: Inouye (D) by 13  (Read 4112 times)
redcommander
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2010, 09:15:06 pm »
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We need PPP to confirm if this is indeed true. That would be a bigger upset than Scott Brown.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2010, 12:38:06 am »
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Quote from: Darth PiT, Imperial Speaker on October 17, 2010, 09:09:58 pm
Quote from: MorningInAmerica on October 17, 2010, 06:06:55 pm
Quote from: px75 on October 17, 2010, 05:00:09 pm
Quote from: SPC on October 17, 2010, 04:57:05 pm
How is there so much disparity between the Rasmussen poll and the PPP poll?

Rasmussen is a hack, Tom Jensen is not.

Funny, I feel the exact opposite.

     There is definitely far more evidence for the latter being a hack than the former.

I think you meant the opposite.
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Dgov
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« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2010, 01:11:23 am »
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Quote from: redcommander on October 17, 2010, 09:15:06 pm
We need PPP to confirm if this is indeed true. That would be a bigger upset than Scott Brown.

I wouldn't call losing by 13 an upset . . .
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2010, 01:12:55 am »
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Quote from: redcommander on October 17, 2010, 09:15:06 pm
We need PPP to confirm if this is indeed true. That would be a bigger upset than Scott Brown.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?fips=15&class=3
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Fmr. Emperor PiT
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« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2010, 01:18:50 am »
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Quote from: px75 on October 18, 2010, 12:38:06 am
Quote from: Darth PiT, Imperial Speaker on October 17, 2010, 09:09:58 pm
Quote from: MorningInAmerica on October 17, 2010, 06:06:55 pm
Quote from: px75 on October 17, 2010, 05:00:09 pm
Quote from: SPC on October 17, 2010, 04:57:05 pm
How is there so much disparity between the Rasmussen poll and the PPP poll?

Rasmussen is a hack, Tom Jensen is not.

Funny, I feel the exact opposite.

     There is definitely far more evidence for the latter being a hack than the former.

I think you meant the opposite.

     Really, there's little evidence for either of them being a hack, not to mention they head the two best polling firms in the business. With the volume of polls Rasmussen puts out, of course there's going to be the occasional one that's wildly off.
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redcommander
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« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2010, 01:42:18 am »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on October 18, 2010, 01:12:55 am
Quote from: redcommander on October 17, 2010, 09:15:06 pm
We need PPP to confirm if this is indeed true. That would be a bigger upset than Scott Brown.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?fips=15&class=3

No not that he would win. That Inouye would get below 55% of the vote.
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« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2010, 12:24:05 pm »
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Quote from: redcommander on October 17, 2010, 09:15:06 pm
We need PPP to confirm if this is indeed true. That would be a bigger upset than Scott Brown.

It would be the greatest upset in history.
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« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2010, 01:13:51 pm »
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Quote from: I have a really long user title badabing badaboom wormyguy on October 18, 2010, 12:24:05 pm
Quote from: redcommander on October 17, 2010, 09:15:06 pm
We need PPP to confirm if this is indeed true. That would be a bigger upset than Scott Brown.

It would be the greatest upset in history.

Inouye winning by 13 would not really be an upset. It would just be a big win in a Republican election cycle.

Inouye losing would be a huge upset - he's been in Congress since Hawaii became a state in 1959, first in the House, then the Senate.  It's not going to happen, though.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2010, 02:31:35 pm »
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cavasso is a tea partier. he won't win in hawaii
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jfern
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« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2010, 03:09:39 am »
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This poll was truly an epic epic fail.

Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on October 17, 2010, 04:42:38 pm
PPP had Inouye up 65-29 while showing Abercrombie up 49-47 for Governor a couple weeks ago, so I'm going to go out on a limb and say this is an outlier, especially since Cavasso got a whopping 21% in 2004.

The best part is that the PPP poll was actually too harsh on Inouye, too.
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« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2010, 03:18:15 am »
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Presumably the decimal point on the margin of error was misplaced.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2010, 03:26:54 am »
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Nate Silver nominated this poll as the worst of the last decade.
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« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2010, 01:12:09 pm »
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lolrasmussen
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The Head Beagle
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« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2010, 01:48:44 pm »
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You mean 85-year-old Mrs. Hashimoto, who is reluctant to tell even a real live stranger over the phone who she's going to vote for, is even more reluctant to tell an automated robot voice? Shocker.
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cinyc
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« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2010, 02:30:11 pm »
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Quote from: Schroeder on November 03, 2010, 01:48:44 pm
You mean 85-year-old Mrs. Hashimoto, who is reluctant to tell even a real live stranger over the phone who she's going to vote for, is even more reluctant to tell an automated robot voice? Shocker.

Yes.  As I've said on many a Hawaii poll thread, beware of Hawaiian polls from mainland pollsters.  They simply don't get that a significant portion of the population - generally women of Japanese-Hawaiian descent - are reluctant to tell pollsters anything.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2010, 02:34:53 pm »
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Quote from: cinyc on November 03, 2010, 02:30:11 pm
Quote from: Schroeder on November 03, 2010, 01:48:44 pm
You mean 85-year-old Mrs. Hashimoto, who is reluctant to tell even a real live stranger over the phone who she's going to vote for, is even more reluctant to tell an automated robot voice? Shocker.

Yes.  As I've said on many a Hawaii poll thread, beware of Hawaiian polls from mainland pollsters.  They simply don't get that a significant portion of the population - generally women of Japanese-Hawaiian descent - are reluctant to tell pollsters anything.

Besides PPP, the other robopollsters failed miserably this season.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

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dmwestmi
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« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2010, 03:52:24 pm »
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Quote from: px75 on November 03, 2010, 03:26:54 am
Nate Silver nominated this poll as the worst of the last decade.

Underestimating the spread by over 40 points? This would be a good contender.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2010, 04:29:37 pm »
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nice job, Scott.
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« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2010, 04:33:35 pm »
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There was a poll during the 2008 Presidential Campaign which suggested that McCain would win over two-thirds of the 18-29 vote.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2010, 05:14:17 pm »
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LOL 
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