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Author Topic: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god  (Read 6727 times)
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« on: October 18, 2010, 01:24:23 pm »
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http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/16/AZ-3/15/aYA8e

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)

Ben Quayle (R) 44
Jon Hulburd (D) 46
« Last Edit: October 18, 2010, 01:31:39 pm by Addicted to Politics »Logged
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2010, 01:39:59 pm »
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The sample is:
51% women, 49% men
52% McCain voters, 40% Obama, 9% someone else/don't remember
45% Republican, 30% Democrats, 25% Independent/Other
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2010, 01:43:03 pm »
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what
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2010, 01:44:32 pm »
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While this district is quite conservative, that doesn't mean they are eager to elect a moron who is the son of another moron who actually stated in his campaign ad "Barack Obama is the worst President in history." even if they aren't fond of Obama.
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2010, 01:44:53 pm »
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...
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2010, 01:47:15 pm »
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lol, wha
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Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2010, 01:48:38 pm »
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I don't expect this one to flip honestly, but really the GOP would've walked away with this one if they had nominated anyone besides the son of one of the biggest and most mocked jokes in American politics.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2010, 02:15:49 pm »
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That primary was another textbook case for irv or at least a runoff in primaries.

Quayle actually trailing? Not just in trouble but trailing in a poll? Lolsson.
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2010, 02:24:13 pm »
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I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever.
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S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2010, 02:30:45 pm »
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Republicans have been quite fond of shooting themselves in the foot this cycle.
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2010, 02:32:53 pm »
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I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever.
We knew Quayle was a very bad candidate right around primary time... but afterwards I heard nothing more and just figured the wave would pull him through easy. I might not have thought that in a more rural district, incidentally.

Of course, we may be drawing too much from just one poll here.
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2010, 02:41:28 pm »
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It looks like Quayle is just too wacky for some. I'm still surprised by these numbers, though.
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2010, 03:02:11 pm »
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It would be pretty hilarious to pick up this seat. While it will probably be close, I doubt we take it.
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2010, 04:37:24 pm »
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No.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2010, 05:17:38 pm »
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This poll is a shocker in all possible aspects. It has Brewer up by only 51-44 and McCain up by only 53-39.
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Social score: -7.74
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2010, 05:42:44 pm »
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Looks a little too Dem-friendly, to me. I did think Quayle would slip by without any major trouble due to the nature of the district and the year, plus Brewer/McCain coattails. Still, this is going back on my list, although I don't think Quayle will lose -- until the 2012 primary, that is.
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redcommander
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2010, 05:47:02 pm »
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I hope he loses. Can you image how much of a joke he would be on the house floor?
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victorola
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2010, 06:17:18 pm »
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If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.
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Zarn
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2010, 06:21:25 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.
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Dgov
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2010, 07:58:40 pm »
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If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.

Or (More likely) this poll is too friendly to the Democrats.

Though Qualye is the best argument for IIRV.  He won almost entirely on the strength of his family name, with like 25% of the vote against 10 candidates
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Political Matrix:  +7.1, -3.83

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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2010, 08:09:47 pm »
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I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2010, 08:27:24 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2010, 08:29:44 pm »
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I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.

I don't mean in the crosstabs, i mean in general.  Obama got 42% of the Vote here in 2008, so a 38% approval rating for him is actually really good.  The McCain numbers are also really low, considering he won the district with 57% of the vote in 2008.

An interesting bit in the poll though is that AZ-3 Hispanics oppose the immigration law by only 5 points.  Granted the Hispanics here aren't as Liberal as those in AZ-4 in South Phoenix, but those kinds of numbers suggest that Obama's attempt to use immigration to turnout Hispanic voters might not have been the best idea.
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Political Matrix:  +7.1, -3.83

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Dgov
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2010, 08:31:49 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.
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Political Matrix:  +7.1, -3.83

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2010, 08:37:29 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

Well, we'll still take it while we can have it. Tongue
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