Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2014, 04:28:49 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2010 Elections
| | |-+  2010 House Election Polls (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | | |-+  PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god  (Read 4698 times)
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1093


View Profile
« on: October 18, 2010, 01:24:23 pm »
Ignore

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/16/AZ-3/15/aYA8e

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)

Ben Quayle (R) 44
Jon Hulburd (D) 46
« Last Edit: October 18, 2010, 01:31:39 pm by Addicted to Politics »Logged
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1093


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2010, 01:39:59 pm »
Ignore

The sample is:
51% women, 49% men
52% McCain voters, 40% Obama, 9% someone else/don't remember
45% Republican, 30% Democrats, 25% Independent/Other
Logged
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31147
Pitcairn


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2010, 01:43:03 pm »
Ignore

what
Logged

A Message to the People of France:

A Message to Manuel Valls
I am stabbed by grace and slinging blood
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 70987
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2010, 01:44:32 pm »
Ignore

While this district is quite conservative, that doesn't mean they are eager to elect a moron who is the son of another moron who actually stated in his campaign ad "Barack Obama is the worst President in history." even if they aren't fond of Obama.
Logged

Famous True Leftists:

Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37906
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2010, 01:44:53 pm »
Ignore

...
Logged

truth serum
Former Moderate
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12926
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2010, 01:47:15 pm »
Ignore

lol, wha
Logged

I am stabbed by grace and slinging blood
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 70987
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2010, 01:48:38 pm »
Ignore

I don't expect this one to flip honestly, but really the GOP would've walked away with this one if they had nominated anyone besides the son of one of the biggest and most mocked jokes in American politics.
Logged

Famous True Leftists:

farewell
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58527
India


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2010, 02:15:49 pm »
Ignore

That primary was another textbook case for irv or at least a runoff in primaries.

Quayle actually trailing? Not just in trouble but trailing in a poll? Lolsson.
Logged

I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6389
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2010, 02:24:13 pm »
Ignore

I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Iosif
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1467


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2010, 02:30:45 pm »
Ignore

Republicans have been quite fond of shooting themselves in the foot this cycle.
Logged

J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.


farewell
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58527
India


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2010, 02:32:53 pm »
Ignore

I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever.
We knew Quayle was a very bad candidate right around primary time... but afterwards I heard nothing more and just figured the wave would pull him through easy. I might not have thought that in a more rural district, incidentally.

Of course, we may be drawing too much from just one poll here.
Logged

I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3215
United States



View Profile
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2010, 02:41:28 pm »
Ignore

It looks like Quayle is just too wacky for some. I'm still surprised by these numbers, though.
Logged
Lіef
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30980
Czech Republic


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2010, 03:02:11 pm »
Ignore

It would be pretty hilarious to pick up this seat. While it will probably be close, I doubt we take it.
Logged

RIP opebo
RIP the jfmtsc
RIP joshgreen
RIP King

Don't get me wrong, I love variety, and get a kick out of all these odors.
Rowan
RowanBrandon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6714


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2010, 04:37:24 pm »
Ignore

No.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3451
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2010, 05:17:38 pm »
Ignore

This poll is a shocker in all possible aspects. It has Brewer up by only 51-44 and McCain up by only 53-39.
Logged



Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6843


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2010, 05:42:44 pm »
Ignore

Looks a little too Dem-friendly, to me. I did think Quayle would slip by without any major trouble due to the nature of the district and the year, plus Brewer/McCain coattails. Still, this is going back on my list, although I don't think Quayle will lose -- until the 2012 primary, that is.
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2010, 05:47:02 pm »
Ignore

I hope he loses. Can you image how much of a joke he would be on the house floor?
Logged
victorola
Newbie
*
Posts: 8
View Profile
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2010, 06:17:18 pm »
Ignore

If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3782


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -5.91

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2010, 06:21:25 pm »
Ignore

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.
Logged
Dgov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1575
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2010, 07:58:40 pm »
Ignore

If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.

Or (More likely) this poll is too friendly to the Democrats.

Though Qualye is the best argument for IIRV.  He won almost entirely on the strength of his family name, with like 25% of the vote against 10 candidates
Logged

Political Matrix:  +7.1, -3.83

A world without sin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-NVs68X_S4
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3215
United States



View Profile
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2010, 08:09:47 pm »
Ignore

I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37906
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2010, 08:27:24 pm »
Ignore

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.
Logged

truth serum
Dgov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1575
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2010, 08:29:44 pm »
Ignore

I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.

I don't mean in the crosstabs, i mean in general.  Obama got 42% of the Vote here in 2008, so a 38% approval rating for him is actually really good.  The McCain numbers are also really low, considering he won the district with 57% of the vote in 2008.

An interesting bit in the poll though is that AZ-3 Hispanics oppose the immigration law by only 5 points.  Granted the Hispanics here aren't as Liberal as those in AZ-4 in South Phoenix, but those kinds of numbers suggest that Obama's attempt to use immigration to turnout Hispanic voters might not have been the best idea.
Logged

Political Matrix:  +7.1, -3.83

A world without sin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-NVs68X_S4
Dgov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1575
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2010, 08:31:49 pm »
Ignore

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.
Logged

Political Matrix:  +7.1, -3.83

A world without sin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-NVs68X_S4
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37906
United States


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2010, 08:37:29 pm »
Ignore

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

Well, we'll still take it while we can have it. Tongue
Logged

truth serum
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines