PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/16/AZ-3/15/aYA8e

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)

Ben Quayle (R) 44
Jon Hulburd (D) 46

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The sample is:
51% women, 49% men
52% McCain voters, 40% Obama, 9% someone else/don't remember
45% Republican, 30% Democrats, 25% Independent/Other

[Hashemite]

what

[So the Heroes Fall]

While this district is quite conservative, that doesn't mean they are eager to elect a moron who is the son of another moron who actually stated in his campaign ad "Barack Obama is the worst President in history." even if they aren't fond of Obama.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

...

[Former Moderate]

lol, wha

[So the Heroes Fall]

I don't expect this one to flip honestly, but really the GOP would've walked away with this one if they had nominated anyone besides the son of one of the biggest and most mocked jokes in American politics.

[Vasall des Midas]

That primary was another textbook case for irv or at least a runoff in primaries.

Quayle actually trailing? Not just in trouble but trailing in a poll? Lolsson.

[JulioMadrid]

I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever.

[Iosif]

Republicans have been quite fond of shooting themselves in the foot this cycle.

[Vasall des Midas]

I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever.

We knew Quayle was a very bad candidate right around primary time... but afterwards I heard nothing more and just figured the wave would pull him through easy. I might not have thought that in a more rural district, incidentally.

Of course, we may be drawing too much from just one poll here.

[Invisible Obama]

It looks like Quayle is just too wacky for some. I'm still surprised by these numbers, though.

[Lief]

It would be pretty hilarious to pick up this seat. While it will probably be close, I doubt we take it.

[Rowan]

No.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This poll is a shocker in all possible aspects. It has Brewer up by only 51-44 and McCain up by only 53-39.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks a little too Dem-friendly, to me. I did think Quayle would slip by without any major trouble due to the nature of the district and the year, plus Brewer/McCain coattails. Still, this is going back on my list, although I don't think Quayle will lose -- until the 2012 primary, that is.

[redcommander]

I hope he loses. Can you image how much of a joke he would be on the house floor?

[victorola]

If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.

[Zarn]

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

[Dgov]

If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.

Or (More likely) this poll is too friendly to the Democrats.

Though Qualye is the best argument for IIRV.  He won almost entirely on the strength of his family name, with like 25% of the vote against 10 candidates

[Invisible Obama]

I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

[Dgov]

I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.

I don't mean in the crosstabs, i mean in general.  Obama got 42% of the Vote here in 2008, so a 38% approval rating for him is actually really good.  The McCain numbers are also really low, considering he won the district with 57% of the vote in 2008.

An interesting bit in the poll though is that AZ-3 Hispanics oppose the immigration law by only 5 points.  Granted the Hispanics here aren't as Liberal as those in AZ-4 in South Phoenix, but those kinds of numbers suggest that Obama's attempt to use immigration to turnout Hispanic voters might not have been the best idea.

[Dgov]

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

Well, we'll still take it while we can have it.