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Author Topic: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god  (Read 4836 times)
The Roose is Loose
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« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2010, 09:45:46 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink
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« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2010, 09:56:46 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead.  The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2010, 10:08:42 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead.  The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent.

Didn't he say he didn't want it after they gave it to him?
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« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2010, 11:13:43 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead.  The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent.
Stop talking about things you don't understand. Minnick could have held this seat against Ward as well.
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« Reply #29 on: October 19, 2010, 12:46:13 am »
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The DCCC should probably pour a good sum into this district to see what comes out in the end.
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« Reply #30 on: October 19, 2010, 12:47:00 am »
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Did this idiot benefit from affirmative action like his idiot daddy did?
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« Reply #31 on: October 19, 2010, 02:44:35 am »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Seeing as this apparent closeness is almost entirely due to Ben Qualye's unfavorables, no.
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« Reply #32 on: October 19, 2010, 03:07:14 am »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Seeing as this apparent closeness is almost entirely due to Ben Qualye's unfavorables, no.

And the only reason we won ID-01 at all was Bill Sali's unfavorables.
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« Reply #33 on: October 19, 2010, 03:10:05 am »
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Quayle is a mess, of course. Still favored to win because of the environment, but there's no reason why Democrats can't actually pick up this seat if they really want it.

But with Dems on their heals defending 50+ incumbents ... can they afford $500,000 here to chase after a hard-to-hold seat? Should be interesting to see what happens here.
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« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2010, 09:19:55 am »
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Okay as a person that had this race as a tossup/ lean republican well before this poll came out ill put my 2 cents in.
A) he is a horrible candidate, and he has brought this race to the point that he could lose it on nov 2nd.
B) the poll is a little off. A little off on the mccain and obama numbers but not by a lot. And by ppp's lv screening(even though that is probably less of a factor here)

My guess is that if a poll was done right in az 3 it would have quayle up 1-2%. That's it. So this ones going down to the wire.

Ill add to more close races held by gop that are on no ones radar.
MI 3 all the moderate republicans are backing the dem
NE 2 less close than the previous 2, but this economic oasis is not going to be apart of any "wave".. This race is all local.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2010, 09:27:11 am by Wonkish1 »Logged
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« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2010, 10:03:38 am »
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Quayle is a mess, of course. Still favored to win because of the environment, but there's no reason why Democrats can't actually pick up this seat if they really want it.

But with Dems on their heals defending 50+ incumbents ... can they afford $500,000 here to chase after a hard-to-hold seat? Should be interesting to see what happens here.

Quayle fils makes Quayle pere look like a most attractive candidate by comparison. He strikes me as just another dumb, spoiled, self indulgent and rich scion.
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« Reply #36 on: October 19, 2010, 10:09:34 am »
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lol
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« Reply #37 on: October 19, 2010, 11:33:11 am »
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What will the Arizona map look like after 2010, exactly? They got a nonpartisan commission and VRA-protected seats and will gain several.
Probably wouldn't save this bloke unless he turns out surprisingly good (and no Zach, Sali's loss was not due to Sali being Sali alone. Minnick was a wellknown moderate candidate.)
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« Reply #38 on: October 19, 2010, 11:47:45 am »
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What will the Arizona map look like after 2010, exactly? They got a nonpartisan commission and VRA-protected seats and will gain several.
Probably wouldn't save this bloke unless he turns out surprisingly good (and no Zach, Sali's loss was not due to Sali being Sali alone. Minnick was a wellknown moderate candidate.)

This seat will be at least as Republican as it is now. Growth in Phoenix metro area has been in the far west and the southeast. Whichever area gets the new district--probably in the southeast--this district will likely have to shift a bit in the opposite direction. Which means picking up reliably Republican areas from AZ-2 or AZ-5.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #39 on: October 19, 2010, 06:45:59 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead.  The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent.
Stop talking about things you don't understand. Minnick could have held this seat against Ward as well.

I highly doubt Ward and Labrador are the only Republicans in ID-01. Tongue

Criticizing the current nominee in a race, isn't an endorsement for his primary opponent you know. You can criticize Maes for instance and that doesn't mean you wanted McInnis instead. It could mean you wanted Penry or Suthers or someone else that is remotely acceptable that ran and dropped out or considered running and decided not to.
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« Reply #40 on: October 19, 2010, 09:59:20 pm »
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What will the Arizona map look like after 2010, exactly? They got a nonpartisan commission and VRA-protected seats and will gain several.
Probably wouldn't save this bloke unless he turns out surprisingly good (and no Zach, Sali's loss was not due to Sali being Sali alone. Minnick was a wellknown moderate candidate.)

This seat will be at least as Republican as it is now. Growth in Phoenix metro area has been in the far west and the southeast. Whichever area gets the new district--probably in the southeast--this district will likely have to shift a bit in the opposite direction. Which means picking up reliably Republican areas from AZ-2 or AZ-5.

Actually the new seat will likely be a DOJ-mandated Hispanic majority one. Arizona is over 30% Hispanic, which would "entitle" them to three seats under a 9-seat map. Drawing such a seat though on the redistricting app resulted in a map where this seat didn't change much though.
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« Reply #41 on: October 19, 2010, 11:00:20 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead.  The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent.
Stop talking about things you don't understand. Minnick could have held this seat against Ward as well.
I highly doubt Ward and Labrador are the only Republicans in ID-01. Tongue

Criticizing the current nominee in a race, isn't an endorsement for his primary opponent you know. You can criticize Maes for instance and that doesn't mean you wanted McInnis instead. It could mean you wanted Penry or Suthers or someone else that is remotely acceptable that ran and dropped out or considered running and decided not to.
Republicans in this district have an inability to nominate sane candidates, especially during years where the conservative grassroots are fired up. Two county commissioners were toppled along with around 10 GOP state senators and representatives, many of whom were already ideologues. I'm surprised that more candidates besides Labrador and Ward didn't run for this district. I suppose if they recruited a rising star like Ward that wasn't a total idiot, picking up this seat would be fairly easy. Mostly I was criticizing the other poster's statement because no one cares about the TPE.

Minnick has quickly become entrenched. 2012 will definitely be more difficult for him but if he can survive in 2k12, he'll be this district's congressman for a long time.
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« Reply #42 on: October 20, 2010, 10:47:46 am »
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Not really. He's old. Tongue
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« Reply #43 on: November 05, 2010, 07:13:55 pm »
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lol @ PPP
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« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2010, 07:26:34 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Turns out you can't Tongue
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« Reply #45 on: November 06, 2010, 11:45:33 pm »
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This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 Wink

Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead.  The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent.
Stop talking about things you don't understand. Minnick could have held this seat against Ward as well.
I highly doubt Ward and Labrador are the only Republicans in ID-01. Tongue

Criticizing the current nominee in a race, isn't an endorsement for his primary opponent you know. You can criticize Maes for instance and that doesn't mean you wanted McInnis instead. It could mean you wanted Penry or Suthers or someone else that is remotely acceptable that ran and dropped out or considered running and decided not to.
Republicans in this district have an inability to nominate sane candidates, especially during years where the conservative grassroots are fired up. Two county commissioners were toppled along with around 10 GOP state senators and representatives, many of whom were already ideologues. I'm surprised that more candidates besides Labrador and Ward didn't run for this district. I suppose if they recruited a rising star like Ward that wasn't a total idiot, picking up this seat would be fairly easy. Mostly I was criticizing the other poster's statement because no one cares about the TPE.

Minnick has quickly become entrenched. 2012 will definitely be more difficult for him but if he can survive in 2k12, he'll be this district's congressman for a long time.

Some trench? They produce the shovels in china?
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