PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

While this district is quite conservative, that doesn't mean they are eager to elect a moron who is the son of another moron who actually stated in his campaign ad "Barack Obama is the worst President in history." even if they aren't fond of Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't expect this one to flip honestly, but really the GOP would've walked away with this one if they had nominated anyone besides the son of one of the biggest and most mocked jokes in American politics.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010

Seeing as this apparent closeness is almost entirely due to Ben Qualye's unfavorables, no.

And the only reason we won ID-01 at all was Bill Sali's unfavorables.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What will the Arizona map look like after 2010, exactly? They got a nonpartisan commission and VRA-protected seats and will gain several.
Probably wouldn't save this bloke unless he turns out surprisingly good (and no Zach, Sali's loss was not due to Sali being Sali alone. Minnick was a wellknown moderate candidate.)

This seat will be at least as Republican as it is now. Growth in Phoenix metro area has been in the far west and the southeast. Whichever area gets the new district--probably in the southeast--this district will likely have to shift a bit in the opposite direction. Which means picking up reliably Republican areas from AZ-2 or AZ-5.

Actually the new seat will likely be a DOJ-mandated Hispanic majority one. Arizona is over 30% Hispanic, which would "entitle" them to three seats under a 9-seat map. Drawing such a seat though on the redistricting app resulted in a map where this seat didn't change much though.