PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god

[Dgov]

If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.

Or (More likely) this poll is too friendly to the Democrats.

Though Qualye is the best argument for IIRV.  He won almost entirely on the strength of his family name, with like 25% of the vote against 10 candidates

[Dgov]

I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.

I don't mean in the crosstabs, i mean in general.  Obama got 42% of the Vote here in 2008, so a 38% approval rating for him is actually really good.  The McCain numbers are also really low, considering he won the district with 57% of the vote in 2008.

An interesting bit in the poll though is that AZ-3 Hispanics oppose the immigration law by only 5 points.  Granted the Hispanics here aren't as Liberal as those in AZ-4 in South Phoenix, but those kinds of numbers suggest that Obama's attempt to use immigration to turnout Hispanic voters might not have been the best idea.

[Dgov]

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

[Dgov]

This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.

Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though.

Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category.

If we can hold ID-1 in 2010

Seeing as this apparent closeness is almost entirely due to Ben Qualye's unfavorables, no.