PA: PPP: Sestak +1

[Iosif]

Exit polls are also almost always wrong.

[Keystone Phil]

All that matters is that Sestak can get his share up to 85-90% among Democrats and do about as well as Toomey does with Independents and he could win.

Yeah, if only and he could win.  

Believe me, I don't think this is over but I think we all know who has the clear advantage here.

[Torie]

What was odd when I was in PA, was the singular lack of passion about this race.

[Keystone Phil]

What was odd when I was in PA, was the singular lack of passion about this race.

The Gubernatorial race is portrayed by the media as being even more of a snoozer.

[Phony Moderate]

Hmmmm....yeah.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think that the folks at PPP have earned the right to take them seriously. After all, it's not like they haven't put out there ugly numbers for the Democrats.

[Brittain33]

From twitter....

jimgeraghty
jimgeraghty
5 minutes ago
% of Democrats in exit polls in PA: 2004, 41%; 2006, 43%; 2008, 44%. Democrats in PPP PA sample today: 48%.

Well, how much of that is due to overweighting of Dems vis a vis Republicans, and how much of it is due to Indys showing up in lower numbers overall, which wouldn't have the same effect? Did Geraghty compare R numbers?

To be sure, I don't believe this poll's top line, and there may be some D oversampling; but I do think the race is closer than it has been.

[mypalfish]

 The 2004 exit poll in Pennsylvania: 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 20 percent independent.

The 2006 exit poll in Pennsylvania: 43 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 19 percent independent.

In 2008, the exit polls in this state split 44 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican, 18 percent independent.

PPP today: 48 percent Democrat, 41 percent Republican, 11 percent independent/other.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

couple of observations:

1)  Dems seem to be gaining ground in the Senate races
2)  Dems seem to be losing ground in the House races
3)  Dems are continuing to be assaulted in the generic

1 seems to be out of step with 2 & 3...also, it should be noted that the House rarely flips without the Senate also flipping, so that would seem to indicate that there is good chance 1/2/3 will end up moving together.

[tpfkaw]

I'll believe it when I see it from another pollster.  Rasmussen had it Toomey +10 a few days ago.

[Whacker77]

Well, until other polls show something like this, I'll assume it's an outlier.  Looking at all of the polls since last year, this appears to be only the second or third time Sestak has been in the lead.  That suggests Toomey is still favor to win by 4-5 points.

As for the buzz on twitter about a tightening race, I think that was more about Democrats trying to create buzz and the idea they were surging in the polls.  I didn't buy it then and I'm reluctant to buy it now.  Given how strongly the generic number favors the Republicans, given how bad the terrain is for Democrats, I would be surprised if Sestak won.  That doesn't mean he can't though.

PPP is a partisan poller who has shown a lot of bad results for Democrats this Fall.  It does seem they started to be a bit more partisan with their results a few weeks ago.

[Free Palestine]

[Tender Branson]

Starting tomorrow morning the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College begins tracking daily the Senate and governor races. That poll in May was the first indicator that Sestak was gaining and then surpassing Arlen Specter.

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/10/sestak-gaining-on-toomey.html

[Phony Moderate]

Sestak is more libertarian than Toomey.

[Oakvale]

Sestak is more libertarian than Toomey.

Yeah, but in case you haven't noticed, your average self-described "libertarian" is really just a closet Republican.

[Psychic Octopus]

Not buying it. Perhaps it is narrowing, though.

[Tender Branson]

Not buying it. Perhaps it is narrowing, though.

We should know tomorrow when the Muhlenberg tracker is released.

[Psychic Octopus]

Not buying it. Perhaps it is narrowing, though.

We should know tomorrow when the Muhlenberg tracker is released.

Good to know that comes out soon. I didn't want to wait another week or so and wait for confirmation. What are your estimates on the race? I was fairly certain that Toomey would win by about seven or eight points.

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting. Of course the race being close is more likely than it being a 10-point race as Rasmussen was showing. Otherwise the NRSC wouldn't be spending money here.

[Tender Branson]

Not buying it. Perhaps it is narrowing, though.

We should know tomorrow when the Muhlenberg tracker is released.

Good to know that comes out soon. I didn't want to wait another week or so and wait for confirmation. What are your estimates on the race? I was fairly certain that Toomey would win by about seven or eight points.

A couple of weeks ago I was also certain that Toomey would win this by about 5-10% and still think he´s somewhat ahead. I´d like to see at least 3 polls or so with a slight Sestak lead to make any conclusions. But it seems that Sestak is gaining ground with the base in recent weeks. I remember last year when all the polls had Corzine at 70% among Democrats, but on Election Day he got 86% support then. He got killed among Independents though (70-30). The main differences between New Jersey and Pennsylvania are that there are far less Independents in PA than in NJ, so it matters more for Sestak to drive home his base. Currently he gets about 75-80% of Democrats and he should get between 85-90% to have a chance against Toomey. Besides, it looks like - contrary to Corzine - that Sestak is doing much better with the Independents. This PPP poll has him tied with Toomey among Indies and the last Muhlenberg poll had him also tied. I don´t know the internals from Rasmussen, but if he ends up tied with Toomey among Indies on Election Day, he might have a good shot at winning this. Besides, you also have to remember that Sestak came from behind in the DEM primary and almost nobody thought he´d have a shot ...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Interesting. Of course the race being close is more likely than it being a 10-point race as Rasmussen was showing. Otherwise the NRSC wouldn't be spending money here.

goog point, forgot about that

[Eraserhead]

This is not actually as shocking as most people here are making it out to be.

[minionofmidas]

It wouldn't be if there'd been some movement over the past month or so.

[Shilly]

Reminder that exit polls have a margin of error.

That said, I'm more than a little skeptical about PPP's numbers here.