KY: Rasmussen: Conway cuts Paul lead in half

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-10-18

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, I: 4%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

15 -> 11 -> 5 -> ?

[tpfkaw]

15 -> 11 -> 5 -> ?

Paul by 1-2 points on election day, assuming a constant rate of change.

[Oakvale]

This remains one of the most interesting races in the country. I still worry that "Aqua Buddah" - which was a hail mary, obviously - might backfire, mind you.

[Dan the Roman]

15 -> 11 -> 5 -> ?

Paul by 1-2 points on election day, assuming a constant rate of change.

Which will be the last two elections for this seat. It just wouldn't be right not being a 50.5-49.5 GOP win.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Was this poll taken before the whole Aqua Buddha scandal? I'm inclined to think the numbers may actually have changed.

[tpfkaw]

Was this poll taken before the whole Aqua Buddha scandal? I'm inclined to think the numbers may actually have changed.

That was weeks ago.

EDIT: Oh, you're referring to the ad.

[Tender Branson]

Was this poll taken before the whole Aqua Buddha scandal? I'm inclined to think the numbers may actually have changed.

The poll was done yesterday evening.

[Oakvale]

Was this poll taken before the whole Aqua Buddha scandal? I'm inclined to think the numbers may actually have changed.

That was weeks ago.

I'm guessing he means that controversial ad and debate exchange. But it's irrelevant, it was done yesterday.

[Miles]

Nice to see Rasmussen acknowledging that KY will be a close race.

I can see the Aqua Buddha ad backfiring on Conway though.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

In that case, maybe people are seeing Rand Paul as too thin skinned over this issue? Maybe the Conway ad is doing what it was supposed to do?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race and MO are gonna be close, but as we all know, there is a dead cat bounce and the most competetive races are in NV, CO, PA, and IL.

[Holmes]

Does anyone have favorables?

[Whacker77]

Over the last week, I feared the race was closing.  Conway ran a good ad with the $2000 deductable.  Paul was slow in responding to it.  Since this poll was done yesterday, I don't think we know whether the Conway ad backfired.  My sense of the local news is it may have.  Also, this is another poll which shows Conway stuck in the low 40's.  Most movement comes from Paul.

One question to ask though.  On another site, they say Paul leads among women, but trails among men in this poll.  If so, I find that very hard to believe.  Can anyone confirm that?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'm no Rand Paul fan, but that Aqua Buddha ad was probably the stupidest politcial ad I've ever seen and Paul had every right to rip Conway in the debates for it. 

On the other side, the GOP has been playing the "we are God-fearing Christians just like you" card for a couple decades now and I guess it was going to be thrown back in their face at some point. 

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe the Aqua Buddha ad is working? I mean, sometimes a hail marry pass does actually result in a touchdown.

[tpfkaw]

One question to ask though.  On another site, they say Paul leads among women, but trails among men in this poll.  If so, I find that very hard to believe.  Can anyone confirm that?

Don't look at crosstabs.

(except for weighting)

[Oakvale]

One question to ask though.  On another site, they say Paul leads among women, but trails among men in this poll.  If so, I find that very hard to believe.  Can anyone confirm that?

Don't look at crosstabs.

This. Crosstabs have been hilarious this cycle.

[Whacker77]

Maybe the Aqua Buddha ad is working? I mean, sometimes a hail marry pass does actually result in a touchdown.

I can be downer when it comes to the teams and politicians I prefer, but I don't think the ad is working.  We certainly can't tell from this ad because it happened the day the poll was taken.

[albaleman]

This might be the shocker of the night. Conway is clearly catching up, but the question is whether he has enough time left.

Still though, I'll believe he can win when I see it. It seems to me like KY Dems generally have a ceiling of about 48 or 49 percent.

[Eraserhead]

Honestly, there was always a decent chance of the ''Aqua Buddha'' thing working. It's a filthy attack but why would conservative Democrats in KY want to vote for a guy that they keep hearing isn't a Christian? Paul needs a considerable amount of those votes to win.

[Skill and Chance]

Honestly, there was always a decent chance of the ''Aqua Buddha'' thing working. It's a filthy attack but why would conservative Democrats in KY want to vote for a guy that they keep hearing isn't a Christian? Paul needs a considerable amount of those votes to win.

Well it backfired on Liddy Dole, big time.  The critical difference may be that KY doesn't have an urban corridor anywhere near the size of NC's.

[Whacker77]

Honestly, there was always a decent chance of the ''Aqua Buddha'' thing working. It's a filthy attack but why would conservative Democrats in KY want to vote for a guy that they keep hearing isn't a Christian? Paul needs a considerable amount of those votes to win.

Party registration is not important in the state.  It has been trending Republican at the federal level for 20 years.  Maybe the attack ad works, but it's well known in the state Paul attends a Presbyterian church and his wife is a deacon for the church.  That's why the ad is likely to backfire.  It will be a closer race than it should be, but Conway just can't get out of the low 40's in poll after poll.

[Eraserhead]

If it was going to backfire, we should have already seen evidence of it in this poll. We see exactly the opposite. The poll could be wrong but I wouldn't bet on it.

By the way, I'm not saying Conway will win. I think it's much more likely that he won't.

[Smash255]

Honestly, there was always a decent chance of the ''Aqua Buddha'' thing working. It's a filthy attack but why would conservative Democrats in KY want to vote for a guy that they keep hearing isn't a Christian? Paul needs a considerable amount of those votes to win.

Well it backfired on Liddy Dole, big time.  The critical difference may be that KY doesn't have an urban corridor anywhere near the size of NC's.

Agreed.  I do think it was a bad ad, and if this race was taking place in most other states including NC it would have backfired.  It might still backfire, but if an ad like this would work Kentucky is the place.

NC has had a ton of northerners move down, also add in the urban factor and the well educated factor, especially in the Triangle and Asheville, no way could that ad not backfire.  Kentucky doesn't have any of that, and perhaps the only place that may fit that category (Louisville) is already not voting for Paul for a host of other reasons, so while they might not like the ad its not going to get them to vote for Paul.