Turnout in Midterm elections

[CARLHAYDEN]

Turnout In Midterm Elections, 1974-2006

Year     Turnout

2006   39.2%       (high)
2002   37.2
1998   34.1          (low)
1994   38.6
1990   35.5
1986   35.4
1982   39.9
1978   36.2
1974   36.9

http://polipundit.com/

[cinyc]

Turnout In Midterm Elections, 1974-2006

Year     Turnout

2006   39.2%       (high)
2002   37.2
1998   34.1          (low)
1994   38.6
1990   35.5
1986   35.4
1982   39.9
1978   36.2
1974   36.9

http://polipundit.com/

1982 must be the highest unless there is a typo - 39.9 is higher than 39.2.  Notice a pattern, anyone?

[minionofmidas]

Expect a new high. And thanks for the pre-94 numbers!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Turnout In Midterm Elections, 1974-2006

Year     Turnout

2006   39.2%       (high)
2002   37.2
1998   34.1          (low)
1994   38.6
1990   35.5
1986   35.4
1982   39.9
1978   36.2
1974   36.9

http://polipundit.com/

1982 must be the highest unless there is a typo - 39.9 is higher than 39.2.  Notice a pattern, anyone?

Thanks for the correction.

[tpfkaw]

Funny that 1998 and 2006 were both Democratic years (to different degrees, obviously).

[Skill and Chance]

It looks to me like high turnout favors change, and low turnout favors the status quo more or less (1982 complicates this analysis).

[Sbane]

Looks like in wave elections one side turns out in very high numbers while the other side's turnout is average or even below it. This year the difference between a 65-70 seat loss and a 45-50 seat loss for the Democrats will be determined by whether their voters turn out in average numbers or below average. I think it's going to be about average with record breaking turnout for the Republicans. They win about 50-55 seats.

[Torie]

Looks like in wave elections one side turns out in very high numbers while the other side's turnout is average or even below it. This year the difference between a 65-70 seat loss and a 45-50 seat loss for the Democrats will be determined by whether their voters turn out in average numbers or below average. I think it's going to be about average with record breaking turnout for the Republicans. They win about 50-55 seats.

That is the consensus forecast. However, there is some possibility it will be considerably higher, given the difficulty of dealing with this turnout issue by the pollsters. I suspect a considerable number of Dems have qualms about Obama's policies, and want to put on the breaks, just as independents and RINO's like myself.

[Sbane]

Looks like in wave elections one side turns out in very high numbers while the other side's turnout is average or even below it. This year the difference between a 65-70 seat loss and a 45-50 seat loss for the Democrats will be determined by whether their voters turn out in average numbers or below average. I think it's going to be about average with record breaking turnout for the Republicans. They win about 50-55 seats.

That is the consensus forecast. However, there is some possibility it will be considerably higher, given the difficulty of dealing with this turnout issue by the pollsters. I suspect a considerable number of Dems have qualms about Obama's policies, and want to put on the breaks, just as independents and RINO's like myself.

There are a lot of tossups out there. Even slight changes in the electorate or voting patterns could flip a lot of seats.

[tpfkaw]

It looks to me like high turnout favors change, and low turnout favors the status quo more or less (1982 complicates this analysis).

More like low turnout favors the president's party, while high turnout favors the opposite party of the president.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Standard mid-term motivation issues seen just about everywhere, then.

[Tender Branson]

I have calculated slightly different results, using VAP (Voting Age Population):



The turnout numbers in each year are the Presidential totals and the Mid-Term numbers are the totals for the House of Representatives elections.

This is the source for the figures:

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo

http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/c2kprof00-us.pdf

http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/NC-EST2009/NC-EST2009-02.xls

As you can see, Mid-Term elections always have about 2/3 of the turnout from the previous Presidential election.

Therefore I predict about 88.4 Mio. votes for this year in the House of Representatives, which would be 37.5% turnout among the VAP (people aged 18+).

[Dgov]

Therefore I predict about 88.4 Mio. votes for this year in the House of Representatives, which would be 37.5% turnout among the VAP (people aged 18+).

Which means that Gallup's Low-turnout Likely voter model is more accurate than it's high-turnout one.