PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS

[Sam Spade]

Day 5 Muhlenberg Tracker

Toomey: 46%(+1)
Sestak: 43%(+1)

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/

This can be entered in the polling database.  Nothing else until 23rd drops off.

[The Vorlon]

Hmmmm, there seems to have been an avalanche of 'interesting' polls in the past day or so.

Everybody and there dog will be releasing a poll in the next ten days.

Colleges, Universities, Newspapers, Zoltan The Magnificent, Pete's All Beef Double Cheeseburger poll, Zogby, The Psychic Hotline....

The list of crap will get very thick and deep....

But are Zogby's polls more or less reliable than those by Zoltan The Magnificent or the Psychic Hotline?

Pete's all beef Double Cheeseburger poll actually has a pretty decent record.....

[Smash255]

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.

What makes you think is oversampling of Dems??  The Democrats have a rather large registration advantage in PA (51-37 at the end of 09).  Even if you take into consideration party id not always matching registration, and stronger GOP turnout than Democratic turnout (Muhlenberg btw asks registration not ID) I don't see how you can really say the party id in the polls is off.

DO you think that 46 % of the voters will be democrats ?

Better chance of that happening than 49% Republican, considering registration is 51-37 in the favor of Democrats.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Have they released the day 4 pdf yet?

[tokar]

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Have they released the day 4 pdf yet?

I can't find it, only day 3 is on Muhlenberg's website.  It is always so hard to find them.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Probably safe to say that Toomey is up by about 2-4%. Hopefully Sestak closes well, he has before.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Have they released the day 4 pdf yet?

I can't find it, only day 3 is on Muhlenberg's website.  It is always so hard to find them.

I waisted an hour myself looking for it.

[Keystone Phil]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

[Keystone Phil]

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Have they released the day 4 pdf yet?

I can't find it, only day 3 is on Muhlenberg's website.  It is always so hard to find them.

I waisted an hour myself looking for it.

It's on the right hand side of their Politics page but it seems like their Twitter account is updated before the website.

[Smash255]

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Have they released the day 4 pdf yet?

I can't find it, only day 3 is on Muhlenberg's website.  It is always so hard to find them.

I waisted an hour myself looking for it.

It's on the right hand side of their Politics page but it seems like their Twitter account is updated before the website.

The update is on the website for the results, but they were talking about the PDF file with the cross tabs.

[Dgov]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

[Senator MaxQue]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

Rhode Island is around two-thirds Catholic.

[Smash255]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA,VT, NH, CA & NM Catholic is the largest group.

http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/news/gra/gnoreligion/flash.htm

[Dgov]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA,VT, NH, CA & NM Catholic is the largest group.

http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/news/gra/gnoreligion/flash.htm

You're not adding up the individual Protestant groups.  They add up to more than the Catholics do in New York, New Jersey, etc. (unless all the "others" are non-Protestant Christians,  which they most likely are)

[Smash255]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA,VT, NH, CA & NM Catholic is the largest group.

http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/news/gra/gnoreligion/flash.htm

You're not adding up the individual Protestant groups.  They add up to more than the Catholics do in New York, New Jersey, etc. (unless all the "others" are non-Protestant Christians,  which they most likely are)

I'm guessing you flunked Math.....

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Is it me or do the numbers for New York in that link only add up to 93%?

[Smash255]

     Is it me or do the numbers for New York in that link only add up to 93%?

It is 93%, keep in mind you have some that are less than .5% that don't show up, that brings you into the 95 or 96% range, rest could be due to rounding.  It looks like its the same in most states.

[Dgov]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA,VT, NH, CA & NM Catholic is the largest group.

http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/news/gra/gnoreligion/flash.htm

You're not adding up the individual Protestant groups.  They add up to more than the Catholics do in New York, New Jersey, etc. (unless all the "others" are non-Protestant Christians,  which they most likely are)

I'm guessing you flunked Math.....

Lets do the Math then:

100% -38% (Catholic) - 13% (Non-religious) - 5% (Jewish) - 1% (Buddist) - 2% (Islam) -2% (other--see below) = 39% (all other minor religions listed were Protestant or Christian in nature, and I'm willing to bet at least half the "other" is small protestant churches)

39%>38%.  Epic problem-solving fail on your part

[Smash255]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA,VT, NH, CA & NM Catholic is the largest group.

http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/news/gra/gnoreligion/flash.htm

You're not adding up the individual Protestant groups.  They add up to more than the Catholics do in New York, New Jersey, etc. (unless all the "others" are non-Protestant Christians,  which they most likely are)

I'm guessing you flunked Math.....

Lets do the Math then:

100% -38% (Catholic) - 13% (Non-religious) - 5% (Jewish) - 1% (Buddist) - 2% (Islam) -2% (other--see below) = 39% (all other minor religions listed were Protestant or Christian in nature, and I'm willing to bet at least half the "other" is small protestant churches)

39%>38%.  Epic problem-solving fail on your part

Others does not exactly mean Protestant, nor does simply saying Christian, nor does Non-Denominational  ,

Baptist 7%
Methodist 6%
Lutheran 2%
Presbyterian 2%
Protestant (no Denomination given) 2%
Pentecostal 2%
Anglican 2%
Assemblies of God 1%
Evangelical 1%


Thats 25%, now if you add all of Christian (4%) thats 29% and all of others,4%, that is 33%.  Rounding might bring it up slightly higher, but not higher than 38%, and not all of Christians or Others are Protestant.

[Dgov]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA,VT, NH, CA & NM Catholic is the largest group.

http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/news/gra/gnoreligion/flash.htm

You're not adding up the individual Protestant groups.  They add up to more than the Catholics do in New York, New Jersey, etc. (unless all the "others" are non-Protestant Christians,  which they most likely are)

I'm guessing you flunked Math.....

Lets do the Math then:

100% -38% (Catholic) - 13% (Non-religious) - 5% (Jewish) - 1% (Buddist) - 2% (Islam) -2% (other--see below) = 39% (all other minor religions listed were Protestant or Christian in nature, and I'm willing to bet at least half the "other" is small protestant churches)

39%>38%.  Epic problem-solving fail on your part

Others does not exactly mean Protestant, nor does simply saying Christian, nor does Non-Denominational  ,

Baptist 7%
Methodist 6%
Lutheran 2%
Presbyterian 2%
Protestant (no Denomination given) 2%
Pentecostal 2%
Anglican 2%
Assemblies of God 1%
Evangelical 1%


Thats 25%, now if you add all of Christian (4%) thats 29% and all of others,4%, that is 33%.  Rounding might bring it up slightly higher, but not higher than 38%, and not all of Christians or Others are Protestant.

So the Problem is where the extra 4-5% Comes from in the poll (which we thought was probably rounding error).  Odds are it goes heavily to the Protestants (as they have more denominations to be rounded off)

[Smash255]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

When did you hear this?  I'm pretty sure Protestants outnumber Catholics in every state in the US (Expect maybe Hawaii, but that doesn't count).  I think they even do in New Mexico given that the state has a large population of Protestant Hispanics.

NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA,VT, NH, CA & NM Catholic is the largest group.

http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/news/gra/gnoreligion/flash.htm

You're not adding up the individual Protestant groups.  They add up to more than the Catholics do in New York, New Jersey, etc. (unless all the "others" are non-Protestant Christians,  which they most likely are)

I'm guessing you flunked Math.....

Lets do the Math then:

100% -38% (Catholic) - 13% (Non-religious) - 5% (Jewish) - 1% (Buddist) - 2% (Islam) -2% (other--see below) = 39% (all other minor religions listed were Protestant or Christian in nature, and I'm willing to bet at least half the "other" is small protestant churches)

39%>38%.  Epic problem-solving fail on your part

Others does not exactly mean Protestant, nor does simply saying Christian, nor does Non-Denominational  ,

Baptist 7%
Methodist 6%
Lutheran 2%
Presbyterian 2%
Protestant (no Denomination given) 2%
Pentecostal 2%
Anglican 2%
Assemblies of God 1%
Evangelical 1%


Thats 25%, now if you add all of Christian (4%) thats 29% and all of others,4%, that is 33%.  Rounding might bring it up slightly higher, but not higher than 38%, and not all of Christians or Others are Protestant.

So the Problem is where the extra 4-5% Comes from in the poll (which we thought was probably rounding error).  Odds are it goes heavily to the Protestants (as they have more denominations to be rounded off)

Even taking that into consideration, some the rounding could also be Jewish, or Buddhist, or Muslim, or No religion, etc

[Keystone Phil]

Guys, who cares?

[Smash255]

Guys, who cares?

I could really careless, I just find it rather interesting he can't do basic math.

[Dgov]

Guys, who cares?

I could really careless, I just find it rather interesting he can't do basic math.

*Sigh.  It's like banging my head against a wall here.  Do you have any idea how much more likely .5% rounding error would make difference across 16 separate values (some of which round to Zero) rather than 5?

As for whether or not this matters, I agree it doesn't--I just find it odd that his understanding of math doesn't stretch beyond "38 is bigger than 37" and fails to understand basic logical analysis, and that he sees this as a failure on my part.

[Smash255]

Guys, who cares?

I could really careless, I just find it rather interesting he can't do basic math.

*Sigh.  It's like banging my head against a wall here.  Do you have any idea how much more likely .5% rounding error would make difference across 16 separate values (some of which round to Zero) rather than 5?

As for whether or not this matters, I agree it doesn't--I just find it odd that his understanding of math doesn't stretch beyond "38 is bigger than 37" and fails to understand basic logical analysis, and that he sees this as a failure on my part.

Assuming that every single one that said Christian, every single one that said others are Protestant as well as assuming every single rounding error works in favor of Protestant is just plain silly and irrational. 

Anyway back to the topic at hand.  Tonight and the results Tuesday Night will be interesting.  They are the days in which the days that swung to Toomey will drop off.