PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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  PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 102516 times)
East Coast Republican
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« Reply #125 on: October 24, 2010, 05:07:30 PM »
« edited: October 24, 2010, 05:10:15 PM by East Coast Republican »


I could really careless, I just find it rather interesting he can't do basic math.

Yeah and if we really want to be immature, I 'just find it rather interesting' that you don't know basic grammar.

You people need to learn to leave each other alone.

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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #126 on: October 24, 2010, 05:45:47 PM »


I could really careless, I just find it rather interesting he can't do basic math.

Yeah and if we really want to be immature, I 'just find it rather interesting' that you don't know basic grammar.

You people need to learn to leave each other alone.



Out of interest, will you be trolling on election night?
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J. J.
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« Reply #127 on: October 24, 2010, 06:28:47 PM »

I'd be overjoyed if this wasn't a university poll.

Whomever said Toomey 2-4 point is probably right, however.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #128 on: October 24, 2010, 09:35:44 PM »

Toomey up 47% to 42%.

And then, my friends, there were eight...
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #129 on: October 24, 2010, 10:23:20 PM »

Toomey up 47% to 42%.

And then, my friends, there were eight...

In the process of giving Sestak his due for his skilled comebacks and last minute surges, was it some how forgotten, that Toomey isn't exactly short on political skills and has himself a history of making a last minute surges also (albeit falling a tad short in the end, accounting for environment differences he did about as well as Sestak in 2010 and Obama wasn't pushing that hard for Specter like Bush was either). We shall see. Smiley
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Smash255
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« Reply #130 on: October 25, 2010, 12:08:56 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2010, 12:17:35 AM by Smash255 »

Cross tabs

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/track4.pdf

Interesting things to note.  PA registration is 51-37 in favor of the Dems, its obviously going to be more Republican that that this year, but 14% Dem advantage to 2 point Dem advantage?  Seems a bit of a high swing especially considering the registration question over party id.

Another odd thing to note, poll that showed Sestak up 3, had a McCain 49-43 sample, this poll showing Toomey up 5 has a 48-46 sample favoring Obama  The 48-46 sample favoring Obama makes sense, but weird considering its a more GOP sample and more Toomey sample than the 3 point Sestak lead.

Also the electorate is only 11% 18-39.   Obviously voters under 40 are going to see a bigger drop off than those over 40 and make up a lower % of the electorate than in 2008, but 35% to 11%??
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #131 on: October 25, 2010, 12:12:28 AM »

Hmm, I hope he doesn't fall back even more in the next one.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #132 on: October 25, 2010, 01:04:01 AM »

+2 Republican registration advantage? Yeah, not happening...
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tokar
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« Reply #133 on: October 25, 2010, 03:28:04 AM »

Cross tabs

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/track4.pdf

Interesting things to note.  PA registration is 51-37 in favor of the Dems, its obviously going to be more Republican that that this year, but 14% Dem advantage to 2 point Dem advantage?  Seems a bit of a high swing especially considering the registration question over party id.

Another odd thing to note, poll that showed Sestak up 3, had a McCain 49-43 sample, this poll showing Toomey up 5 has a 48-46 sample favoring Obama  The 48-46 sample favoring Obama makes sense, but weird considering its a more GOP sample and more Toomey sample than the 3 point Sestak lead.

Also the electorate is only 11% 18-39.   Obviously voters under 40 are going to see a bigger drop off than those over 40 and make up a lower % of the electorate than in 2008, but 35% to 11%??

As much as I like the MCall/Muhlenberg tracker, the crosstabs are a bit concerning...

2004 exit poll - 41% D, 39% R, 20% I (D+2)
2006 exit poll - 43% D, 38% R, 19% I (D+5)
2008 exit poll - 44% D, 37% R, 18% I (D+7)

Even if turnout isn't as high as 2008, or 2006, Pennsylvania should still see at least see a positive spread for Democrats statewide just based on the registration totals alone (thanks to PA being a state which lets people register by party and keeps track of the totals).

Day 1, R+5
Day 2, R+7
Day 3, R+3
Day 4, R+1
Day 5, R+3
Day 6, R+3

I'd love to see the margin if there was a democratic spread in the poll...

Day 1, leaners went to Toomey at +2 (Not sure at 84%)
Day 2, leaners went to Sestak at +8 (Not sure at 81%)
Day 3, leaners went to Sestak at +9 (Not sure at 79%)
Day 4, leaners went to Sestak at +2 (Not sure at 74%)
Day 5, leaners went to Sestak at +6 (Not sure at 73%)
Day 6, leaners went to Toomey at +11 (Not sure at 77%)

So in day 6, not only was there a 17 point flip in the leaners, but the "not sure" went back up?

Days 1 through 6, those polled aged 65+ were as low as 39% and as high as 42%
In the 2008 election, voters aged 65+ made up only 15% of voters.
In the 2006 election, voters aged 60+ made up only 29% of voters.
In the 2004 election, voters aged 60+ made up only 22% of voters.

Days 1 through 6, african americans made up 5-6%
In the 2008 election, the AA vote was 13%
In the 2006 election, the AA vote was 8%
In the 2004 election, the AA vote was 13%


I mean it is easy to be critical of polling, they aren't going to get the exact same numbers as the exit polling from previous elections dictate (obviously), just you have to be aware of the crosstabs (in any poll) before taking any of them as a gold standard.

In this particular poll, they are underestimating the African American vote (traditionally more democratic), grossly overestimating the senior vote (traditionally more republican), and they are grossly overestimating the make up of the electorate in favor of republicans.  There is a lot more you can pick out in the cross tabs, but these are the most glaring.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #134 on: October 25, 2010, 06:15:34 PM »

So its more of a trash uni poll then it was a week ago? This poll has had issues all along.


Lets also keep in mind this is in line with Rasmussen now and with regards to Toomey's numbers, the same place as Q. PPP is the odd man out now. There last poll here will be telling as to whether Sestak's surge has ground to a halt.
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tokar
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« Reply #135 on: October 25, 2010, 06:49:09 PM »

So its more of a trash uni poll then it was a week ago? This poll has had issues all along.


Lets also keep in mind this is in line with Rasmussen now and with regards to Toomey's numbers, the same place as Q. PPP is the odd man out now. There last poll here will be telling as to whether Sestak's surge has ground to a halt.

I never said they were a good poll, I just said they had a good track record.

See my post:
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #136 on: October 25, 2010, 06:53:24 PM »

So its more of a trash uni poll then it was a week ago? This poll has had issues all along.


Lets also keep in mind this is in line with Rasmussen now and with regards to Toomey's numbers, the same place as Q. PPP is the odd man out now. There last poll here will be telling as to whether Sestak's surge has ground to a halt.

I never said they were a good poll, I just said they had a good track record.

See my post:

Some post, must be very illuminating. So much so that you used invisible ink for it. Tongue

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tokar
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« Reply #137 on: October 25, 2010, 06:58:19 PM »

So its more of a trash uni poll then it was a week ago? This poll has had issues all along.


Lets also keep in mind this is in line with Rasmussen now and with regards to Toomey's numbers, the same place as Q. PPP is the odd man out now. There last poll here will be telling as to whether Sestak's surge has ground to a halt.

I never said they were a good poll, I just said they had a good track record.

See my post:

Some post, must be very illuminating. So much so that you used invisible ink for it. Tongue



There is nothing to hide, just its a long post.  I just wanted to link it as opposed to quoting it.  Click the link to the post to read it...not everything in life will be made easy...then again clicking a link is not a hard deed.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #138 on: October 25, 2010, 07:04:03 PM »

So its more of a trash uni poll then it was a week ago? This poll has had issues all along.


Lets also keep in mind this is in line with Rasmussen now and with regards to Toomey's numbers, the same place as Q. PPP is the odd man out now. There last poll here will be telling as to whether Sestak's surge has ground to a halt.

I never said they were a good poll, I just said they had a good track record.

See my post:

Some post, must be very illuminating. So much so that you used invisible ink for it. Tongue



There is nothing to hide, just its a long post.  I just wanted to link it as opposed to quoting it.  Click the link to the post to read it...not everything in life will be made easy...then again clicking a link is not a hard deed.

Why do people make assumptions like this? Roll Eyes For future reference, I often take this type of response as an insult.

As you aren't that familiar with me or my machinery I will tell you that 1) I am using dial-up), and 2) I have a software issue with my internet software. The combination of the two has been creating a bunch of issues of jamming and really slow loading. Knowing this, my desire to keep the number of pages I click on to a minimum is quite reasonable indeed.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #139 on: October 25, 2010, 09:48:29 PM »

Rather a lot of attention being paid to a University poll with a daily sample of about 100 people.
Tthey have a decent record, but still, a sample of 400 is pretty noisy - not quite investment grade information here.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #140 on: October 25, 2010, 09:50:09 PM »

Is today's out yet?
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Smash255
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« Reply #141 on: October 25, 2010, 10:10:45 PM »

Usually updated on twitter about now, but the account seems delayed.  Last night's posting appears as 8 hours ago. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #142 on: October 25, 2010, 10:16:53 PM »

Yeah, I don't know what's up tonight.  Sad
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Smash255
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« Reply #143 on: October 25, 2010, 10:25:14 PM »

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23pasen

Someone says its 48-40 Toomey in the Morning Call poll (different person that who normally has the update) someone else says 46-45 Toomey, but no mention of the poll so not sure what to think of that
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #144 on: October 25, 2010, 10:25:35 PM »

Toomey - 48%
Sestak - 40%

And then there were seven...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #145 on: October 25, 2010, 10:30:35 PM »

It's been confirmed: 48% to 40%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #146 on: October 25, 2010, 10:32:29 PM »

Well, the surge was fun while it lasted (assuming this poll is close to accurate).
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Smash255
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« Reply #147 on: October 25, 2010, 10:33:47 PM »


Any idea what the 46-45 Toomey mention vote Dems out is referring to?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #148 on: October 25, 2010, 10:38:31 PM »


Any idea what the 46-45 Toomey mention vote Dems out is referring to?

No idea. Maybe one of my fellow Republicans just trying to give us a heart attack.  Tongue  Multiple sources confirmed the 48% to 40% result though.
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cinyc
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« Reply #149 on: October 25, 2010, 10:44:58 PM »

Well, the surge was fun while it lasted (assuming this poll is close to accurate).

My guess is a lot of these Senate Democrats surged because in a desperate attempt to stay close, they released their last-minute attack ads a week or two earlier than usual.  Now, Republicans are responding and counterattacking.
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