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| | | |-+  PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 22208 times)
mypalfish
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« on: October 19, 2010, 11:23:55 pm »
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senatus
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Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll shows Sestak up 3, 44-41
« Last Edit: October 29, 2010, 05:26:03 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2010, 11:29:21 pm »
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I predicted Toomey's demise would start in August.  Maybe the black vote in Philly is the difference? 

Either way, the GOP is losing ground in the final weeks, just like I predicted.

CA is probably gone, WA is probably gone, CO is slipping, DE is gone, PA could be slipping, KY is slipping, MO is tightening and WI may be gone.

How we doing folks?
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2010, 11:36:26 pm »
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Is Pennsylvania seriously going to vote against Toomey? Tongue
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2010, 12:43:35 am »
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PPP is once again vindicated. And if anything this poll has a Republican-friendly sample.

... and WI may be gone.


You mean it's gone for the Democrats?
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2010, 12:46:13 am »
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PPP is once again vindicated. And if anything this poll has a Republican-friendly sample.

... and WI may be gone.


You mean it's gone for the Democrats?

No, he means it could be gone for the Republicans, hilariously. He's basically the Anti-Beet. He's actually a good counterweight to have around.
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2010, 01:12:34 am »
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PPP is once again vindicated. And if anything this poll has a Republican-friendly sample.

... and WI may be gone.


You mean it's gone for the Democrats?

No, he means it could be gone for the Republicans, hilariously. He's basically the Anti-Beet. He's actually a good counterweight to have around.

He's a hopeless pessimistic fool. IMHO.
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2010, 01:31:22 am »
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PPP is once again vindicated. And if anything this poll has a Republican-friendly sample.

... and WI may be gone.


You mean it's gone for the Democrats?

No, he means it could be gone for the Republicans, hilariously. He's basically the Anti-Beet. He's actually a good counterweight to have around.

He's a hopeless pessimistic fool. IMHO.

     For someone whose first years of genuine political awareness were 2006 or 2008, the idea of Republicans actually winning may seem like a bizarre fantasy. We tend to be prejudiced towards expecting outcomes we have experienced personally, even if logic suggests other outcomes are possible or even probable.
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2010, 01:44:08 am »
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Someone check on Phil.....
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2010, 01:47:42 am »
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http://www.mcall.com/media/acrobat/2010-10/56899431.pdf
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2010, 01:57:25 am »
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Great.

Smiley

I wish though that they would poll 1000 likely voters, not only 400.

Another question:

How do we add these to the database ? Every day ? Or maybe every 3 days ?
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2010, 02:15:05 am »
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I predicted Toomey's demise would start in August.  Maybe the black vote in Philly is the difference? 

Either way, the GOP is losing ground in the final weeks, just like I predicted.

CA is probably gone, WA is probably gone, CO is slipping, DE is gone, PA could be slipping, KY is slipping, MO is tightening and WI may be gone.

How we doing folks?

HAHAHAHA.  Where shall we start?

1:  California is slipping for the Democrats.  Fiorina is closer right now than she's ever been in this race, and looks like an even chance to pull this one off.

2:  Washington is heading down to the wire.  Please give me one poll in the last 3 weeks that suggests this race is "Gone".  PPP themselves just released a poll with Murray up only 2--not a confidence builder for the Democrats.

3: Colorado is slipping towards Tossup.  Buck has gone from about a +3 average to about even.  Again, this just means a close race is going down to the wire--I don't think Buck's ever really had a big lead to begin with.

4: Delaware is gone.  But seeing as who we lost, i don't really count this as a loss for anyone but the GOP big boys.

5: Pennsylvania is again, a Tossup.  Do you think that the GOP can't win in any state that they don't lead by 10 in?

6: Kentucky is still Lean Paul, and likely to stay that way.  This race has been closer than it is now, and I don't see any reason Paul won't be able to pull this one off

7:  Missouri is going to be an R hold.  You can put money on that--A PPP poll showing him up 5 basically means he's going to win barring anything really big happening.

8:  Wisconsin is an easy GOP pickup.  Even the DSCC poll had Johnson up a few points.

Me?  I'm doing fine, thank you very much.  I happen to be busting my balls trying to make sure that first race falls the right way, rather than spending all my time whining on the internet about how major political parties don't bend over backwards to please me.
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2010, 02:15:21 am »
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Well, Ill add this to the database and suggest that we use this thread for every release thats coming out now.

I think its OK if we add the daily results to the database, because well got tons of other PA polls in between.
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2010, 02:17:53 am »
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1:  California is slipping for the Democrats.  Fiorina is closer right now than she's ever been in this race, and looks like an even chance to pull this one off.


Fiornia was in better shape a month ago.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/california

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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2010, 02:21:57 am »
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I predicted Toomey's demise would start in August.  Maybe the black vote in Philly is the difference? 

Either way, the GOP is losing ground in the final weeks, just like I predicted.

CA is probably gone, WA is probably gone, CO is slipping, DE is gone, PA could be slipping, KY is slipping, MO is tightening and WI may be gone.

How we doing folks?

HAHAHAHA.  Where shall we start?

1:  California is slipping for the Democrats.  Fiorina is closer right now than she's ever been in this race, and looks like an even chance to pull this one off.

2:  Washington is heading down to the wire.  Please give me one poll in the last 3 weeks that suggests this race is "Gone".  PPP themselves just released a poll with Murray up only 2--not a confidence builder for the Democrats.

3: Colorado is slipping towards Tossup.  Buck has gone from about a +3 average to about even.  Again, this just means a close race is going down to the wire--I don't think Buck's ever really had a big lead to begin with.

4: Delaware is gone.  But seeing as who we lost, i don't really count this as a loss for anyone but the GOP big boys.

5: Pennsylvania is again, a Tossup.  Do you think that the GOP can't win in any state that they don't lead by 10 in?

6: Kentucky is still Lean Paul, and likely to stay that way.  This race has been closer than it is now, and I don't see any reason Paul won't be able to pull this one off

7:  Missouri is going to be an R hold.  You can put money on that--A PPP poll showing him up 5 basically means he's going to win barring anything really big happening.

8:  Wisconsin is an easy GOP pickup.  Even the DSCC poll had Johnson up a few points.

Me?  I'm doing fine, thank you very much.  I happen to be busting my balls trying to make sure that first race falls the right way, rather than spending all my time whining on the internet about how major political parties don't bend over backwards to please me.

You are my new favorite member right now.
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2010, 03:44:25 am »
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Hmmmm, there seems to have been an avalanche of 'interesting' polls in the past day or so.
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2010, 03:49:57 am »
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1:  California is slipping for the Democrats.  Fiorina is closer right now than she's ever been in this race, and looks like an even chance to pull this one off.


Fiornia was in better shape a month ago.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/california


A Poll has her leading.  That's a first (I think), even if it is her own internal.
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2010, 03:50:49 am »
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You are my new favorite member right now.

uh . .  Thanks?
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2010, 06:59:41 am »
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Best part of the poll: 49% claim to have voted for McCain while only 43% voted for Obama.  Wink
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2010, 08:16:08 am »
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One thing about this race... old white voters in Pennsylvania may be swinging heavily Republican, but Toomey is a truly awful candidate for them. We've seen a lot of seniors overlook this problem with Toomey and other candidates because they want to vote against Obama, but it has always been an Achilles heel. We'll see how much it matters on election day.
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2010, 08:17:28 am »
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so, the following races are tightening up:  CA, WA, NV, CO, PA, KY, WI, WV

                  
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2010, 08:26:20 am »
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Best part of the poll: 49% claim to have voted for McCain while only 43% voted for Obama.  Wink

So Sestak could be ahead by 10 or more? Wink
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2010, 09:55:24 am »
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Considering there have been no major events that would account for such a sudden swing,  I admitt I'm confounded by the numbers.  Still, two polls in a row is saying something.  I will say this though.  I find it very hard to believe Toomey is just at 41%.
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2010, 10:40:13 am »
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IIRC this race's polls always had a surprising lot of undecideds.
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2010, 10:45:32 am »
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Wow, and I was slamming the Public Policy poll the other day..........yowza.  I wonder if the nasty ads Sestak is running are having an affect.
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2010, 11:02:33 am »
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The two debates are still to come, correct? Who is considered the strongest of the two in debates? They could decide who wins.
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