PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 01:46:00 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 Senatorial Election Polls
  PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9
Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 102508 times)
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #150 on: October 25, 2010, 10:49:12 PM »
« edited: October 25, 2010, 11:06:42 PM by Torie »

There has never been much real movement in this race. Why should there be? Toomey is a very competent, smooth and knowledgeable candidate, so it is not as if some misstep of his will distract voters when the issues are going his way, in a state where more voters dislike Obama at the moment than like him. The bounces are largely ersatz, IMO. The pollsters just change their turnout models from time to time, except Ras, yes I know. What states am I interested in?  CO (there, there might be real movement, because Buck allows himself to get off message - the message being $$$$$$), WV, CT, IL, WA (I wish, I wish, upon a star), and CA (the latter not because I really think Carly has much of a chance, but because my zip code lies within it).
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #151 on: October 25, 2010, 10:56:24 PM »

Even if this is accurate, this much more of a race than CT is.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #152 on: October 25, 2010, 11:05:40 PM »

Even if this is accurate, this much more of a race than CT is.

That is what the polls suggest, with the ersatz/ephemeral bounce creating more buzz in PA on top. But I suspect CT will be tight on election night. You just wait. Sure if I had to bet, with even odds,  it would be against my girl.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #153 on: October 25, 2010, 11:08:39 PM »

I never really posted this on the forum, except privately to Keystone Phil when he asked a couple of weeks ago.

PA is, at least historically, a pretty easy state to figure out.  My guess has long since been on this race that it'll end up having some slight (1%-5%) generic Democratic lean to the generic ballot writ large, as PA has had for many moons, b/c the candidates strike me as so generic.  Yes, they do, sorry Dems.

In other words, if the generic ballot is 10% GOP, Toomey will win by 4% to 9%, and probably closer to 4% just because there's less soft Dem swingability in PA than in other places (like OH say).

We'll see whether I'm right in a week.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #154 on: October 25, 2010, 11:17:51 PM »

Well that was fun while it lasted.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #155 on: October 25, 2010, 11:27:08 PM »

Even if this is accurate, this much more of a race than CT is.

That is what the polls suggest, with the ersatz/ephemeral bounce creating more buzz in PA on top. But I suspect CT will be tight on election night. You just wait. Sure if I had to bet, with even odds,  it would be against my girl.

What do you consider tight? I expect Blumenthal will win by 8% or more.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #156 on: October 25, 2010, 11:27:17 PM »

Also worth noting: this is a net gain of eleven points for Toomey in just one week in this poll.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,858
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #157 on: October 25, 2010, 11:32:21 PM »

I still expect this one to be down to the wire, something just tells me it will be a little while before it's called on election night.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,302


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #158 on: October 25, 2010, 11:54:11 PM »

Even if this is accurate, this much more of a race than CT is.

That is what the polls suggest, with the ersatz/ephemeral bounce creating more buzz in PA on top. But I suspect CT will be tight on election night. You just wait. Sure if I had to bet, with even odds,  it would be against my girl.

So you think CT will be closer than PA? Of course both Sestak and Linda will lose, it's just the margins that are of interest at this moment.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #159 on: October 25, 2010, 11:58:48 PM »

Even if this is accurate, this much more of a race than CT is.

That is what the polls suggest, with the ersatz/ephemeral bounce creating more buzz in PA on top. But I suspect CT will be tight on election night. You just wait. Sure if I had to bet, with even odds,  it would be against my girl.

So you think CT will be closer than PA? Of course both Sestak and Linda will lose, it's just the margins that are of interest at this moment.

Yes.  Of course, the polls contradict me. But putting aside Whitman, when it comes to my predictions, particularly in this cycle (and yes, I refuse to remember anything about the Del Senate GOP primary Tongue) ... ?  Pride commeth before the fall, and I no doubt need to be taken down a notch. ):
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #160 on: October 26, 2010, 01:33:37 AM »

Party Registration,  48% Republican, 43% Democratic


http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/track5.pdf
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #161 on: October 26, 2010, 01:34:54 AM »


Okkkkkkkkkaaaaayyyyy. Uhh...
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #162 on: October 26, 2010, 01:39:50 AM »


The gap in party id in PA is generally less than the registration gap, but even if you take that consideration and look at this as party id as opposed to party registration, GOP + 5??  Thats absurd.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #163 on: October 26, 2010, 01:41:44 AM »


The gap in party id in PA is generally less than the registration gap, but even if you take that consideration and look at this as party id as opposed to party registration, GOP + 5??  Thats absurd.

Yeah, if it looked like that on election day, I'd be pretty surprised to say the least.

Damn, I really wish SUSA would poll PA.
Logged
East Coast Republican
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #164 on: October 26, 2010, 02:06:29 AM »

You were all praising this pollster as being the most accurate in Pennsylvania and now many of you are tearing it apart because Toomey is up. 

Not pointing fingers.  Just keeping it fair and balanced.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #165 on: October 26, 2010, 02:13:21 AM »

You were all praising this pollster as being the most accurate in Pennsylvania and now many of you are tearing it apart because Toomey is up. 

Not pointing fingers.  Just keeping it fair and balanced.

I'm not exactly tearing it apart, and it has nothing to do with who is ahead.  It has to do with a party breakout which makes absolutely no sense.    The question wasn't party id, but party registration.  Dem + 14 is the statewide registration numbers, its obviously going to be more Republican than that, but GOP + 5??  Not a chance.  Even if you go by party id (though the question did not ask that), it was +7 in 2008.  Obviously going to be more Republican than that, but its not going to be GOP +5, even under the best circumstances for the GOP.  That just isn't happening, period.   

A true registration question should probably be somewhere between Dem +5 to Dem +8 taking into consideration the friendly GOP a year.  A party id based question perhaps even to Dem + 2 or 3, considering it was Dem +7 in 08 and this is obviously a more GOP year, but GOP + 5?  No way.  The 12% under age 40 is also very strange.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #166 on: October 26, 2010, 03:05:06 AM »

You were all praising this pollster as being the most accurate in Pennsylvania and now many of you are tearing it apart because Toomey is up. 

I did no such thing. Besides, I'm not necessarily saying it's wrong. I'm just saying that I would personally be surprised if that kind of breakdown ends up happening. Tongue
Logged
tokar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 503
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.87, S: -6.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #167 on: October 26, 2010, 06:03:52 AM »

You were all praising this pollster as being the most accurate in Pennsylvania and now many of you are tearing it apart because Toomey is up. 

Not pointing fingers.  Just keeping it fair and balanced.

I'm not exactly tearing it apart, and it has nothing to do with who is ahead.  It has to do with a party breakout which makes absolutely no sense.    The question wasn't party id, but party registration.  Dem + 14 is the statewide registration numbers, its obviously going to be more Republican than that, but GOP + 5??  Not a chance.  Even if you go by party id (though the question did not ask that), it was +7 in 2008.  Obviously going to be more Republican than that, but its not going to be GOP +5, even under the best circumstances for the GOP.  That just isn't happening, period.   

A true registration question should probably be somewhere between Dem +5 to Dem +8 taking into consideration the friendly GOP a year.  A party id based question perhaps even to Dem + 2 or 3, considering it was Dem +7 in 08 and this is obviously a more GOP year, but GOP + 5?  No way.  The 12% under age 40 is also very strange.

I was just thinking...it is quite possible that they are purposefully keeping the partisan makeup as R+## as they assume the turnout at the polls will be low (I mean, its not like they can't find a few extra democrats to take a phone poll in PA).  And if that is actually the case then it further substantiates the need to get out the vote (on the democratic side).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #168 on: October 26, 2010, 06:51:33 AM »

I wouldn´t read too much into these numbers.

Sestak is still pretty competetive with Independents: his share actually increased from 35 to 44% in this releases, with Toomey fell from 55 to 48%.

(last page)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2010/PA_Muhlenberg_1026.pdf

The only really important movement has been among Democrats, where Sestak went from 76% to 72% and Toomey from 12 to 17%. If Toomey can really win 17% of Democrats on election day remains to be seen.

Also, the 5-point Republican advantage in self-identification plays a big role for this result.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,653


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #169 on: October 26, 2010, 07:43:19 AM »


Sestak is still pretty competetive with Independents: his share actually increased from 35 to 44% in this releases, with Toomey fell from 55 to 48%.


Given that only 7% self identify as "independent" in the way Muhlenburg is doing this, in a sample size of a bit over 400 people, 7% translates into 30 or so interviews.

Drawing any conclusions from a subsample of 30 people is tenuous to say the very least.

Not sure I want to go into the cross tabs of this poll for any nuggets of Gold.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #170 on: October 26, 2010, 03:44:34 PM »

Well, the AP poll has them tied, so who the hell knows what's going on...
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #171 on: October 26, 2010, 09:48:45 PM »

Anything for today yet? I refuse to have anything to do with Twitter.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #172 on: October 26, 2010, 09:51:02 PM »

Anything for today yet? I refuse to have anything to do with Twitter.

Nothing yet. I keep checking Twitter and trying to find out if anyone else knows but I'm not seeing/hearing anything new.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #173 on: October 26, 2010, 09:55:40 PM »

Toomey - 46%
Sestak - 41%

Then there were six...
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #174 on: October 26, 2010, 09:59:27 PM »

Nice. Sestak +1, Toomey -2.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 14 queries.