PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 06:42:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 Senatorial Election Polls
  PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9]
Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 102524 times)
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #200 on: October 30, 2010, 10:35:23 PM »

Nice. I'll take them.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #201 on: October 30, 2010, 10:45:54 PM »


Like I said in my post...
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #202 on: October 31, 2010, 12:09:55 AM »

Sample Dems + 4   (48-44)

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/muhlenberg.pdf
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #203 on: October 31, 2010, 12:12:22 AM »

Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,469
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #204 on: October 31, 2010, 06:47:30 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2010, 06:49:55 AM by Umengus »

Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4

Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,653


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #205 on: October 31, 2010, 07:10:55 AM »

Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,469
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #206 on: October 31, 2010, 10:59:33 AM »

Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?

no but every dems say that the PA dem party has a very strong GOTV effort. We will see...

2006: exit poll: D:43 % R: 38 % I: 19 % (D +5)

if 2010 = 2006 , where is the wave ?

Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #207 on: October 31, 2010, 12:50:20 PM »

Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?


Considering its PA?  Yes.  Also the question is Party registration not party ID.  Party registration is actually Dems +14.
Logged
mypalfish
Rookie
**
Posts: 236


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #208 on: October 31, 2010, 07:45:26 PM »

Toomey up 4 in the last tracking poll....
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #209 on: October 31, 2010, 07:46:06 PM »

Toomey - 48%

Sestak - 44%
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,469
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #210 on: October 31, 2010, 08:31:22 PM »

Game over ?
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #211 on: October 31, 2010, 09:00:55 PM »


Is +4 really that different from +2?

Toomey is a strong favorite but we already knew that.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #212 on: November 01, 2010, 02:05:16 AM »

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2010TrackingRelease13November1.doc.pdf

Dem +2
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #213 on: November 01, 2010, 10:33:23 AM »

Was this their final poll ?
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #214 on: November 01, 2010, 10:34:22 AM »


I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #215 on: November 01, 2010, 10:51:47 AM »


Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,469
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #216 on: November 01, 2010, 01:40:20 PM »


Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.


thanks for your work. especially today.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #217 on: November 02, 2010, 01:18:57 AM »


Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.


thanks for your work. especially today.

No problem ... Wink
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 14 queries.