PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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  PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 102500 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #50 on: October 21, 2010, 03:37:35 AM »

It's a mistake to think Santorum lost only because he was "too extreme" for Pennsylvania.  Moderate Republican Icon Mike DeWine lost in Neighboring Ohio by only a slightly smaller margin, and Ohio is slightly more Republican.
You must be confusing DeWine with Voinovich. DeWine was a generic bushbot. Not an ideological uberconservative like Toomey is and Santorum talked like he was (and paid a price for it), but not a moderate by any standard either.

Lifetime ACU ratings (why not?) Voinovich 70 (same as Lisa Murkowski btw), DeWine 80 (or comparable to Frank Murkowski Tongue ).
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Dgov
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« Reply #51 on: October 21, 2010, 04:23:25 AM »

It's a mistake to think Santorum lost only because he was "too extreme" for Pennsylvania.  Moderate Republican Icon Mike DeWine lost in Neighboring Ohio by only a slightly smaller margin, and Ohio is slightly more Republican.
You must be confusing DeWine with Voinovich. DeWine was a generic bushbot. Not an ideological uberconservative like Toomey is and Santorum talked like he was (and paid a price for it), but not a moderate by any standard either.

Lifetime ACU ratings (why not?) Voinovich 70 (same as Lisa Murkowski btw), DeWine 80 (or comparable to Frank Murkowski Tongue ).

You mean the guy who supports Gun Control, Raising the minimum wage, and the ANWAR drilling ban?  He got his ranking from being a Hard-core Social Conservative, and was considerably more Liberal on fiscal issues than the average Republican.

Anyway, my point still stands.  If you consider Pennsylvania to be about 6 points more Democratic than Ohio, he lost by about the same relative margin Santorum did despite playing the "moderate" card repeatedly.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #52 on: October 21, 2010, 04:39:46 AM »


...

(Oh and, the actual story here is that Bob Casey wasn't as strong a candidate as his early boosters made him out to be - which became quite apparent during the campaign - he probably would have lost to an incumbent capable of attracting crossover support, which Santorum never was, beyond the bare minimum needed to win election as an R in PA - and that a very unpopular Governor dragged DeWine down with him... which became easier because DeWine wasn't any sort of icon of any sort for anybody but basically Generic R. Perception being Reality in these things, of course.)
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Dgov
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« Reply #53 on: October 21, 2010, 05:20:59 AM »


... Yeah, he was the poster child for the SoCon wing of the Republican party.  I don't know what is so hard for you to understand; the guy was a solid Social Conservative and a "Moderate" Economic Conservative.  And he lost big to a Progressive Socialist, while Santorum lost big to a Pro-life Democrat.  That doesn't exactly scream "Ideology doomed him" like some people here think it does.

Oh, and I'd argue Ed Rendell's 21-point win in 2006 was a bigger benefit to Casey than Taft was to Brown.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #54 on: October 21, 2010, 05:32:33 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2010, 05:34:28 AM by Only the names have been changed to protect the innocent »

Indeed, ideology certainly didn't doom DeWine. Genericity did him in. (That includes an inability to make the narrative about the fact that Brown is quite liberal.)

Oh, and as to the last sentence: No. Just no. Casey vs Santorum was the big one in PA that year. Not seriously contested races like Rendell's that year do not really have coattails.
In Ohio, Taft was the big story, Ney was a big story, general Republican corruption was a big story. DeWine couldn't break that narrative. It was a perfectly unnecessary defeat, if you will.

I note from your profile that you were 15 in 2006. Tell me, did you follow those elections in any detail?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #55 on: October 21, 2010, 06:54:00 AM »

Casey wasn't strong on personality but he's always strong on name. That means a lot more here so he was clearly a strong candidate.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #56 on: October 21, 2010, 07:00:31 AM »

Casey wasn't strong on personality but he's always strong on name.
Well, yeah.

Seriously? Citation needed. Tongue
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Compared to what? To a paper candidate? Obviously. Utterly obviously. He was a "star candidate", handpicked to take out a high-profile, obviously vulnerable but not obviously doomed, incumbent, after all.
Compared to how strong he was made out to be? Not really. (Also obvious that early polls tend to be more name-dependent than final results.) Still good enough for an unendangered win in 2006's climate, of course.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2010, 07:08:56 AM »


Come on. When you're a Casey in Pennsylvania, it's like being a Kennedy in Massachusetts.

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He was strong because he gets to sit back, do nothing and always win (except 2002 when he wasn't liberal enough for the Democratic electorate) rather easily. Replace him with some stellar candidate that didn't have a great name and you'd see those big victories in many areas disappear.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #58 on: October 21, 2010, 07:21:19 AM »


Come on. When you're a Casey in Pennsylvania, it's like being a Kennedy in Massachusetts.

Probably worth more, nowadays, actually.

But hey, in Arizona it's enough to be a goddam Quayle. Compared to that PA is doing good.

(My point was about the relative benefits of a huge name in Pennsylvania as vs. other states, not about the relative size of the Casey name compared to other names. Anyways, I don't think we disagree much. Especially seeing as how my views on the race were partially shaped by your discussions with other posters. Tongue )
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« Reply #59 on: October 21, 2010, 10:59:18 AM »

I doubt anyone in Ohio cared about DeWine's supposed "moderateness". I mean he supported gun control and opposed ANWR drilling. Is that really going to win anyone over in 2006? As Lewis said, he was seen as the epitome of generic R.
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Badger
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« Reply #60 on: October 21, 2010, 11:04:04 AM »

OK, we get it guys. Someone with a 98 lifetime rating from the ACU "isn't extreme". Roll Eyes
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« Reply #61 on: October 21, 2010, 11:23:15 AM »

But hey, in Arizona it's enough to be a goddam Quayle.

Not really. Quayle entered the race as a second-tier candidate seen as having little chance. He surged after releasing an ad that consisted of not much more than him saying "Barack Obama is the worst President in history." It went viral among the nutjobs, he raised tons of money, and won a plurality in a very divided primary. Even in the primary his name clearly hurt him and he only got where he was by tapping into idiotic anti-Obama sentiment (please note that I am not saying all anti-Obama sentiment is idiotic, just what he tapped into.)
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #62 on: October 21, 2010, 08:58:42 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2010, 09:08:31 PM by The Vorlon »

Hmmmm, there seems to have been an avalanche of 'interesting' polls in the past day or so.

Everybody and their dog will be releasing a poll in the next ten days.

Colleges, Universities, Newspapers, Zoltan The Magnificent, Pete's All Beef Double Cheeseburger poll, Zogby, The Psychic Hotline....

The list of crap will get very thick and deep....



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Eraserhead
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« Reply #63 on: October 21, 2010, 09:01:22 PM »

Hmmmm, there seems to have been an avalanche of 'interesting' polls in the past day or so.

Everybody and there dog will be releasing a poll in the next ten days.

Colleges, Universities, Newspapers, Zoltan The Magnificent, Pete's All Beef Double Cheeseburger poll, Zogby, The Psychic Hotline....

The list of crap will get very thick and deep....

I can almost smell it already!



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cinyc
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« Reply #64 on: October 21, 2010, 09:48:08 PM »

Hmmmm, there seems to have been an avalanche of 'interesting' polls in the past day or so.

Everybody and there dog will be releasing a poll in the next ten days.

Colleges, Universities, Newspapers, Zoltan The Magnificent, Pete's All Beef Double Cheeseburger poll, Zogby, The Psychic Hotline....

The list of crap will get very thick and deep....





But are Zogby's polls more or less reliable than those by Zoltan The Magnificent or the Psychic Hotline?
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Rowan
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« Reply #65 on: October 21, 2010, 09:56:33 PM »

Day 3

Toomey: 43%(nc)
Sestak: 43%(nc)

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #66 on: October 21, 2010, 09:57:40 PM »

Are you sure those are new numbers? It looks like they just didn't update yet since the Gubernatorial race numbers are the same.
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Smash255
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« Reply #67 on: October 21, 2010, 09:59:56 PM »

Are you sure those are new numbers? It looks like they just didn't update yet since the Gubernatorial race numbers are the same.

And it also still says 17th to 20th.
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Rowan
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« Reply #68 on: October 21, 2010, 10:02:05 PM »

The magic of twitter:

"Mcall/Muhlenberg tracker poll tonight: #pasen still locked at 43percent each"

http://twitter.com/DCMorningCall/status/28366922254
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #69 on: October 21, 2010, 10:04:36 PM »

The magic of twitter:

"Mcall/Muhlenberg tracker poll tonight: #pasen still locked at 43percent each"

http://twitter.com/DCMorningCall/status/28366922254

Nice
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tokar
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« Reply #70 on: October 21, 2010, 11:44:06 PM »

Yeah it is updated on MCALL.com, says 18-21: http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/ (right side of the page).  I can't seem to find a link to the PDF, thoguh.

Day 3:
Sestak - 43
Toomey - 43

Onorato - 40
Corbett - 49
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #71 on: October 22, 2010, 01:03:37 AM »

I'm still shaking my head at this one. What happened here? Toomey seemed to have anywhere from a 4-10 point lead for half a year. This one seems more and more like a toss-up, where I had assumed it would be a GOP pick-up.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #72 on: October 22, 2010, 01:40:40 AM »

It is Pennsylvania.
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tokar
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« Reply #73 on: October 22, 2010, 02:28:14 AM »

I'm still shaking my head at this one. What happened here? Toomey seemed to have anywhere from a 4-10 point lead for half a year. This one seems more and more like a toss-up, where I had assumed it would be a GOP pick-up.

1) Most importantly, the PA democratic electorate is finally coming home (as is the case with everywhere in the US, and in PA dem's outnumber republicans in registration).  If the election happened on any given day in August or September, of course without people knowing, Toomey would have won handily.  Obviously no major election is unknown to the electorate, so this is completely unrealistic.  I think that most voters in PA, and every other state for that matter, aren't as engaged as the people who use DailyKos, RedState, USElectionAtlas, etc. and only start getting involved in the last month.
2) Sestak is a closer.  He showed it quite well in May with the primary.  He was down pretty big early, and had the primary happened on any given day before April, Specter would have won handily.
3) PA is very blue collar, and I think a lot of voters still use television, radio, and even newspapers as their primary source of information (where as you and others on this forum probably use liberal/conservative blogs or news websites).  I am inclined to believe the electorate in PA is a bit more influenced by the media-based advertising machine.
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Smash255
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« Reply #74 on: October 22, 2010, 02:57:08 AM »

I'm still shaking my head at this one. What happened here? Toomey seemed to have anywhere from a 4-10 point lead for half a year. This one seems more and more like a toss-up, where I had assumed it would be a GOP pick-up.

1) Most importantly, the PA democratic electorate is finally coming home (as is the case with everywhere in the US, and in PA dem's outnumber republicans in registration).  If the election happened on any given day in August or September, of course without people knowing, Toomey would have won handily.  Obviously no major election is unknown to the electorate, so this is completely unrealistic.  I think that most voters in PA, and every other state for that matter, aren't as engaged as the people who use DailyKos, RedState, USElectionAtlas, etc. and only start getting involved in the last month.
2) Sestak is a closer.  He showed it quite well in May with the primary.  He was down pretty big early, and had the primary happened on any given day before April, Specter would have won handily.
3) PA is very blue collar, and I think a lot of voters still use television, radio, and even newspapers as their primary source of information (where as you and others on this forum probably use liberal/conservative blogs or news websites).  I am inclined to believe the electorate in PA is a bit more influenced by the media-based advertising machine.


Agreed.  I never saw this race winding up as a solid Toomey win.  Quite simply the math just doesn't allow for that.  Someone as far right to the right as Toomey doesn't have a chance in hell at suburban Philly.  Without suburban Philly you don't give yourself much room for error and give yourself no chance to win anything other than a nail biter.   

The real question is can Sestak run up the margins in suburban Philly that make it virtually impossible for Toomey to overcome elsewhere in the state? or is Toomey able to hold down the margins in suburban Philly enough to give him the chance to run up the margins elsewhere to win?
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