PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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  PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 102517 times)
tokar
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« Reply #75 on: October 22, 2010, 04:26:56 AM »

I'm still shaking my head at this one. What happened here? Toomey seemed to have anywhere from a 4-10 point lead for half a year. This one seems more and more like a toss-up, where I had assumed it would be a GOP pick-up.

1) Most importantly, the PA democratic electorate is finally coming home (as is the case with everywhere in the US, and in PA dem's outnumber republicans in registration).  If the election happened on any given day in August or September, of course without people knowing, Toomey would have won handily.  Obviously no major election is unknown to the electorate, so this is completely unrealistic.  I think that most voters in PA, and every other state for that matter, aren't as engaged as the people who use DailyKos, RedState, USElectionAtlas, etc. and only start getting involved in the last month.
2) Sestak is a closer.  He showed it quite well in May with the primary.  He was down pretty big early, and had the primary happened on any given day before April, Specter would have won handily.
3) PA is very blue collar, and I think a lot of voters still use television, radio, and even newspapers as their primary source of information (where as you and others on this forum probably use liberal/conservative blogs or news websites).  I am inclined to believe the electorate in PA is a bit more influenced by the media-based advertising machine.


Agreed.  I never saw this race winding up as a solid Toomey win.  Quite simply the math just doesn't allow for that.  Someone as far right to the right as Toomey doesn't have a chance in hell at suburban Philly.  Without suburban Philly you don't give yourself much room for error and give yourself no chance to win anything other than a nail biter.   

The real question is can Sestak run up the margins in suburban Philly that make it virtually impossible for Toomey to overcome elsewhere in the state? or is Toomey able to hold down the margins in suburban Philly enough to give him the chance to run up the margins elsewhere to win?

Well the interesting thing is Sestak did remarkably well with conservative democratic voters in the Primary.  In the primary it was Specter who was hoping to run up the totals in the SE-PA counties, with the African American vote in particular in Philadelphia county.  There were some conspiracy theorists who believed that Anthony Williams was only on the gubernatorial primary ballot to drive up the African American vote in Philadelphia as he had no chance winning the actual primary itself (polls had him in a distant fourth behind Onorato, Wagner and even Hoeffel!).

With that said, I don't think Sestak has to run up the totals in SE-PA to be victorious.  Yes it would make things ridiculously simple for him if that were to happen, but it is interesting to note that Sestak was considered the "conservative" candidate during the primary in May, hoping to be able to overcome the vote totals in SE-PA (which he of course did).


On a quick interesting tidbit...
If you head to the PA department of state, they are testing out the returns system:
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
I was trying to figure out what I was seeing since there are vote totals, % precincts reporting, etc.  Didn't realize it until I noticed "Testing" in big red letters at the top.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #76 on: October 22, 2010, 04:33:57 AM »

This thread is pinned why?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #77 on: October 22, 2010, 05:44:12 AM »


So that not anybody creates a new thread each day.
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tokar
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« Reply #78 on: October 22, 2010, 07:42:53 AM »


Because Pennsylvania is the most important state in the Union.  Without PA there is no Philadelphia, without Philadelphia there is no Independence Hall, without Independence Hall there is no signing of the Declaration of Independence.  Simple as that... Cheesy
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #79 on: October 22, 2010, 08:35:42 AM »

I'm still shaking my head at this one. What happened here? Toomey seemed to have anywhere from a 4-10 point lead for half a year. This one seems more and more like a toss-up, where I had assumed it would be a GOP pick-up.

1) Most importantly, the PA democratic electorate is finally coming home (as is the case with everywhere in the US, and in PA dem's outnumber republicans in registration).  If the election happened on any given day in August or September, of course without people knowing, Toomey would have won handily.  Obviously no major election is unknown to the electorate, so this is completely unrealistic.  I think that most voters in PA, and every other state for that matter, aren't as engaged as the people who use DailyKos, RedState, USElectionAtlas, etc. and only start getting involved in the last month.
2) Sestak is a closer.  He showed it quite well in May with the primary.  He was down pretty big early, and had the primary happened on any given day before April, Specter would have won handily.
3) PA is very blue collar, and I think a lot of voters still use television, radio, and even newspapers as their primary source of information (where as you and others on this forum probably use liberal/conservative blogs or news websites).  I am inclined to believe the electorate in PA is a bit more influenced by the media-based advertising machine.


Agreed.  I never saw this race winding up as a solid Toomey win.  Quite simply the math just doesn't allow for that.  Someone as far right to the right as Toomey doesn't have a chance in hell at suburban Philly.  Without suburban Philly you don't give yourself much room for error and give yourself no chance to win anything other than a nail biter.   

The real question is can Sestak run up the margins in suburban Philly that make it virtually impossible for Toomey to overcome elsewhere in the state? or is Toomey able to hold down the margins in suburban Philly enough to give him the chance to run up the margins elsewhere to win?

Well the interesting thing is Sestak did remarkably well with conservative democratic voters in the Primary.

Specter has never been popular out west and in the rural areas.

 
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Polls didn't have Williams running fourth; he was running in second place for most of the race. He finished third which was surprising.

The theory that he was in it just to help Specter isn't really looney. Many respected people believe that since Williams and Specter have been very close and Williams is a big deal within the establishment.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #80 on: October 22, 2010, 09:04:48 AM »

But hey, in Arizona it's enough to be a goddam Quayle.

Not really. Quayle entered the race as a second-tier candidate seen as having little chance. He surged after releasing an ad that consisted of not much more than him saying "Barack Obama is the worst President in history." It went viral among the nutjobs, he raised tons of money, and won a plurality in a very divided primary. Even in the primary his name clearly hurt him and he only got where he was by tapping into idiotic anti-Obama sentiment (please note that I am not saying all anti-Obama sentiment is idiotic, just what he tapped into.)
Heh, don't confuse me with irrelevant detail. Grin
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #81 on: October 22, 2010, 09:13:57 AM »

So, I saw Bob Brady on Hardball yesterday and he seemed quite confident about his ability to get Philly votes in huge amounts, therefore being able to win it for Sestak.

Not that I would expect anything else from him, but I found it kind of interesting. Not sure how much of the machine is left in place/working well though.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #82 on: October 22, 2010, 09:22:34 AM »

So, I saw Bob Brady on Hardball yesterday and he seemed quite confident about his ability to get Philly votes in huge amounts, therefore being able to win it for Sestak.

I was right behind him. Good showing for Toomey, eh?  Wink

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The machine is very powerful but of course Brady is going to say he can deliver the votes. We'll see what happens on November 2nd.
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tokar
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« Reply #83 on: October 22, 2010, 09:31:36 AM »

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Frankly, second place was Wagner, regardless of what the polls said.  I voted Hoeffel (when I was registered in PA) but I believe that for those PA'ians who did not want to vote for Onorato (e.g. a very good, and very liberal friend of mine) the second choice was Wagner as it was generally believed that he had the best chance of beating Onorato (and I say "beating" since Onorato is considered to be a conservative DEM and was not first choice among liberals like myself even though he presented the best chance in beating Corbett).  And it ended up as Wagner being second by a pretty clear margin mind you.
And I know you aren't liberal, and probably aren't a registered DEM, but I think most democrats treated Hoeffel as #3 and Williams #4.  Obviously thats not how the result turned out, but most people on the DEM side (pre election day) treated Williams' entry as a the conspiracy theory mentioned earlier, i.e. expected to be last place.  If you consider a 2 point spread (final poll before the election) as a clear margin to indicate a clear #2 from a #4, then you should re-evaluate how you look at polls (final poll before the election: Quinnipiac 5/16: Onorato 39, Williams 11, Wagner 10, Hoeffel 9).  I would have considered that poll as Onorato #1, and the other three guys a distant tie for last place...lol.

I guess I did misuse the word "distant" though.  Distant behind Onorato, yes, but not too distant behind the other two guys I suppose.

I didn't say it was loony, just that it was a conspiracy theory (not all conspiracy theories are loony...a single bullet did kill three people in a car in Dallas almost 40 years ago, right?...hehe, quite relevant in this situation since we are talking about the PA Senate race here Wink ).
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #84 on: October 22, 2010, 09:38:12 AM »

So, I saw Bob Brady on Hardball yesterday and he seemed quite confident about his ability to get Philly votes in huge amounts, therefore being able to win it for Sestak.

I was right behind him. Good showing for Toomey, eh?  Wink
Yeah, can't say I expected all the Toomey signs. And your guys chant and the boos in response drowned out the panel which was pretty funny. Tongue
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tokar
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« Reply #85 on: October 22, 2010, 09:39:01 AM »

So, I saw Bob Brady on Hardball yesterday and he seemed quite confident about his ability to get Philly votes in huge amounts, therefore being able to win it for Sestak.

Not that I would expect anything else from him, but I found it kind of interesting. Not sure how much of the machine is left in place/working well though.

What did you think of Mr. Runyan? (I ask since you are in NJ) Smiley

I saw his debate bit on MSNBC last night.  Name a Supreme Court case from the last 5-10 years you disagree with.  "Hmm, Dred Scott." *laughter*.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #86 on: October 22, 2010, 09:41:45 AM »


Frankly, second place was Wagner, regardless of what the polls said.  I voted Hoeffel (when I was registered in PA) but I believe that for those PA'ians who did not want to vote for Onorato (e.g. a very good, and very liberal friend of mine) the second choice was Wagner as it was generally believed that he had the best chance of beating Onorato (and I say "beating" since Onorato is considered to be a conservative DEM and was not first choice among liberals like myself even though he presented the best chance in beating Corbett).

Wagner is far more conservative but had a better shot at beating Corbett.

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I just tend to think most people cite "conspiracy theorists" in a negative way. Either way, it isn't crazy to think that William ran for other reasons.

So, I saw Bob Brady on Hardball yesterday and he seemed quite confident about his ability to get Philly votes in huge amounts, therefore being able to win it for Sestak.

I was right behind him. Good showing for Toomey, eh?  Wink
Yeah, can't say I expected all the Toomey signs. And your guys chant and the boos in response drowned out the panel which was pretty funny. Tongue

We're very organized.  Wink
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #87 on: October 22, 2010, 09:42:26 AM »

I'm not much of a fan(I'm a Democrat though, so not really unbiased, also a Giants fan), but I don't really like Adler too much either. I think Adler will pull out a win though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #88 on: October 22, 2010, 09:45:53 AM »

Last night, wall to wall campaign ads on the local news.

All were Republican, though it is getting harder to tell.  Most were for Toomey, but perhaps one were from outside groups.
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tokar
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« Reply #89 on: October 22, 2010, 07:46:02 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2010, 07:47:36 PM by tokar »

Muhlenberg put up the PDF for day 3:
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/pdf/main/academics/polisci/2010TrackingRelease3_October22.pdf

Like day 2, there is an R+3 spread in the partisan makeup in day 3.
Sestak has gone from a +0 favorability to -4 to -3.
Toomey has gone from -2 to +1 and holding at +1.

Onorato has gone from -7 favorability to -10 to -6.
Corbett has gone from +9 to +11 to +12.


There is an interesting question in the poll process.
They ask people if they are voting for one candidate or the other if the election as held today, and if they say not sure they then ask who they are leaning towards.
For the senate, its:
Toomey - 43
Sestak - 41
Neither/Other - 4
Not sure - 12

Of the not sures:
15% Lean towards Sestak
6% Lean towards Toomey
79% Unsure

Which results in the final score of 43-43.

It is interesting to point out that on day 1 the leaners were trending towards Toomey 9% to 7%.  On day 2 that reversed and now Sestak seems to be leading quite significantly with leaners.  Day 2 was 14% to 6% and day 3 is listed above.
Sestak went from -2 to +8 to +9 now.  Its important to note that the number of undecideds in the leaners question has gone from 84 to 81 to 79 now.  So that group is shrinking by the day.
The sample size of the leaners was 52.

Side note, the governor's race is going the same way with leaners...(9%-9% day 1, 5%-10% day 2 in favor of Onorato, 3%-12% day 3 in favor of Onorato).
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Rowan
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« Reply #90 on: October 22, 2010, 09:54:26 PM »

Day 4

Toomey: 45%(+2)
Sestak: 42%(-1)

http://twitter.com/DCMorningCall/status/28464242434
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #91 on: October 22, 2010, 10:31:13 PM »

Darn. Come on, Joe!
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tokar
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« Reply #92 on: October 22, 2010, 10:35:04 PM »


In a race like this (which, at this point, mimics the primary in May), I don't think you will see a clear lead for either candidate, just flip-flopping leads and ties.
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« Reply #93 on: October 23, 2010, 04:50:53 AM »

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #94 on: October 23, 2010, 05:24:03 AM »

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.
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Umengus
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« Reply #95 on: October 23, 2010, 08:40:03 AM »

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.
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Smash255
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« Reply #96 on: October 23, 2010, 12:03:24 PM »

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.

What makes you think is oversampling of Dems??  The Democrats have a rather large registration advantage in PA (51-37 at the end of 09).  Even if you take into consideration party id not always matching registration, and stronger GOP turnout than Democratic turnout (Muhlenberg btw asks registration not ID) I don't see how you can really say the party id in the polls is off.
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Umengus
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« Reply #97 on: October 23, 2010, 01:19:32 PM »

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.

What makes you think is oversampling of Dems??  The Democrats have a rather large registration advantage in PA (51-37 at the end of 09).  Even if you take into consideration party id not always matching registration, and stronger GOP turnout than Democratic turnout (Muhlenberg btw asks registration not ID) I don't see how you can really say the party id in the polls is off.

DO you think that 46 % of the voters will be democrats ?
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Rowan
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« Reply #98 on: October 23, 2010, 03:10:06 PM »

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.

What makes you think is oversampling of Dems??  The Democrats have a rather large registration advantage in PA (51-37 at the end of 09).  Even if you take into consideration party id not always matching registration, and stronger GOP turnout than Democratic turnout (Muhlenberg btw asks registration not ID) I don't see how you can really say the party id in the polls is off.

DO you think that 46 % of the voters will be democrats ?

Do you think that 49% of the voters will be Republicans?
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Rowan
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« Reply #99 on: October 23, 2010, 08:52:20 PM »

Day 5 Muhlenberg Tracker

Toomey: 46%(+1)
Sestak: 43%(+1)

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/
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