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| | | |-+  PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS
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Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 23529 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #200 on: October 30, 2010, 10:35:23 pm »
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Nice. I'll take them.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #201 on: October 30, 2010, 10:45:54 pm »
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What?

These are new numbers?

Like I said in my post...
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Never any doubt.
Smash255
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« Reply #202 on: October 31, 2010, 12:09:55 am »
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Sample Dems + 4   (48-44)

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/muhlenberg.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #203 on: October 31, 2010, 12:12:22 am »
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Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.
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Umengus
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« Reply #204 on: October 31, 2010, 06:47:30 am »
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Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4

« Last Edit: October 31, 2010, 06:49:55 am by Umengus »Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
The Vorlon
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« Reply #205 on: October 31, 2010, 07:10:55 am »
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Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?
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No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Umengus
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« Reply #206 on: October 31, 2010, 10:59:33 am »
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Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?

no but every dems say that the PA dem party has a very strong GOTV effort. We will see...

2006: exit poll: D:43 % R: 38 % I: 19 % (D +5)

if 2010 = 2006 , where is the wave ?

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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Smash255
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« Reply #207 on: October 31, 2010, 12:50:20 pm »
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Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?


Considering its PA?  Yes.  Also the question is Party registration not party ID.  Party registration is actually Dems +14.
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mypalfish
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« Reply #208 on: October 31, 2010, 07:45:26 pm »
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Toomey up 4 in the last tracking poll....
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #209 on: October 31, 2010, 07:46:06 pm »
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Toomey - 48%

Sestak - 44%
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Umengus
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« Reply #210 on: October 31, 2010, 08:31:22 pm »
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Game over ?
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Eraserhead
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« Reply #211 on: October 31, 2010, 09:00:55 pm »
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Game over ?

Is +4 really that different from +2?

Toomey is a strong favorite but we already knew that.
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Smash255
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« Reply #212 on: November 01, 2010, 02:05:16 am »
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http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2010TrackingRelease13November1.doc.pdf

Dem +2
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #213 on: November 01, 2010, 10:33:23 am »
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Was this their final poll ?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #214 on: November 01, 2010, 10:34:22 am »
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Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #215 on: November 01, 2010, 10:51:47 am »
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Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.
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Umengus
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« Reply #216 on: November 01, 2010, 01:40:20 pm »
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Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.


thanks for your work. especially today.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
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E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #217 on: November 02, 2010, 01:18:57 am »
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Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.


thanks for your work. especially today.

No problem ... Wink
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