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Author Topic: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS  (Read 13391 times)
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
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« Reply #200 on: October 30, 2010, 10:35:23 pm »
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Nice. I'll take them.
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Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #201 on: October 30, 2010, 10:45:54 pm »
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Quote from: Fmr Gov, NE Rep. Polnut on October 30, 2010, 07:39:02 pm
What?

These are new numbers?

Like I said in my post...
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Smash255
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« Reply #202 on: October 31, 2010, 12:09:55 am »
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Sample Dems + 4   (48-44)

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/muhlenberg.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #203 on: October 31, 2010, 12:12:22 am »
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Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.
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Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Umengus
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« Reply #204 on: October 31, 2010, 06:47:30 am »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on October 31, 2010, 12:12:22 am
Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4
« Last Edit: October 31, 2010, 06:49:55 am by Umengus »Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
The Vorlon
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« Reply #205 on: October 31, 2010, 07:10:55 am »
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Quote from: Umengus on October 31, 2010, 06:47:30 am
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 31, 2010, 12:12:22 am
Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?
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Umengus
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« Reply #206 on: October 31, 2010, 10:59:33 am »
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Quote from: The Vorlon on October 31, 2010, 07:10:55 am
Quote from: Umengus on October 31, 2010, 06:47:30 am
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 31, 2010, 12:12:22 am
Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?

no but every dems say that the PA dem party has a very strong GOTV effort. We will see...

2006: exit poll: D:43 % R: 38 % I: 19 % (D +5)

if 2010 = 2006 , where is the wave ?
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Smash255
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« Reply #207 on: October 31, 2010, 12:50:20 pm »
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Quote from: The Vorlon on October 31, 2010, 07:10:55 am
Quote from: Umengus on October 31, 2010, 06:47:30 am
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 31, 2010, 12:12:22 am
Okay, maybe I won't take them. Tongue

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

Wink

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4



Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?


Considering its PA?  Yes.  Also the question is Party registration not party ID.  Party registration is actually Dems +14.
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mypalfish
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« Reply #208 on: October 31, 2010, 07:45:26 pm »
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Toomey up 4 in the last tracking poll....
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #209 on: October 31, 2010, 07:46:06 pm »
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Toomey - 48%

Sestak - 44%
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Umengus
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« Reply #210 on: October 31, 2010, 08:31:22 pm »
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Game over ?
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
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« Reply #211 on: October 31, 2010, 09:00:55 pm »
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Quote from: Umengus on October 31, 2010, 08:31:22 pm
Game over ?

Is +4 really that different from +2?

Toomey is a strong favorite but we already knew that.
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Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Smash255
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« Reply #212 on: November 01, 2010, 02:05:16 am »
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http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2010TrackingRelease13November1.doc.pdf

Dem +2
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #213 on: November 01, 2010, 10:33:23 am »
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Was this their final poll ?
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All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
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« Reply #214 on: November 01, 2010, 10:34:22 am »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on November 01, 2010, 10:33:23 am
Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.
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Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Tender Branson
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E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #215 on: November 01, 2010, 10:51:47 am »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on November 01, 2010, 10:34:22 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 01, 2010, 10:33:23 am
Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.
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Umengus
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« Reply #216 on: November 01, 2010, 01:40:20 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on November 01, 2010, 10:51:47 am
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 01, 2010, 10:34:22 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 01, 2010, 10:33:23 am
Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.


thanks for your work. especially today.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

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« Reply #217 on: November 02, 2010, 01:18:57 am »
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Quote from: Umengus on November 01, 2010, 01:40:20 pm
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 01, 2010, 10:51:47 am
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 01, 2010, 10:34:22 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 01, 2010, 10:33:23 am
Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ... Tongue

Meh, so much work.


thanks for your work. especially today.

No problem ... Wink
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