PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS

[Tender Branson]

Great.



I wish though that they would poll 1000 likely voters, not only 400.

Another question:

How do we add these to the database ? Every day ? Or maybe every 3 days ?

[Tender Branson]

Well, I´ll add this to the database and suggest that we use this thread for every release that´s coming out now.

I think it´s OK if we add the daily results to the database, because we´ll got tons of other PA polls in between.

[Tender Branson]

Title of thread has been modified to warn people not to enter the poll again until 19th drops off - otherwise the database will become Muhlenberg-centric.

So, the next poll entry should be on Sunday, with the sample from Oct. 20-23.

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac will also have a PA Senate poll out today.

[Tender Branson]

This thread is pinned why?

So that not anybody creates a new thread each day.

[Tender Branson]

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn´t read too much into these numbers.

Sestak is still pretty competetive with Independents: his share actually increased from 35 to 44% in this releases, with Toomey fell from 55 to 48%.

(last page)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2010/PA_Muhlenberg_1026.pdf

The only really important movement has been among Democrats, where Sestak went from 76% to 72% and Toomey from 12 to 17%. If Toomey can really win 17% of Democrats on election day remains to be seen.

Also, the 5-point Republican advantage in self-identification plays a big role for this result.

[Tender Branson]

Was this their final poll ?

[Tender Branson]

Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ...

Meh, so much work.

[Tender Branson]

Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ...

Meh, so much work.

thanks for your work. especially today.

No problem ...