PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS

[Rowan]

Day 2

Toomey: 43%(+2)
Sestak: 43%(-1)

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/

[Rowan]

Day 3

Toomey: 43%(nc)
Sestak: 43%(nc)

[Rowan]

The magic of twitter:

"Mcall/Muhlenberg tracker poll tonight: #pasen still locked at 43percent each"

http://twitter.com/DCMorningCall/status/28366922254

[Rowan]

Day 4

Toomey: 45%(+2)
Sestak: 42%(-1)

http://twitter.com/DCMorningCall/status/28464242434

[Rowan]

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.

What makes you think is oversampling of Dems??  The Democrats have a rather large registration advantage in PA (51-37 at the end of 09).  Even if you take into consideration party id not always matching registration, and stronger GOP turnout than Democratic turnout (Muhlenberg btw asks registration not ID) I don't see how you can really say the party id in the polls is off.

DO you think that 46 % of the voters will be democrats ?

Do you think that 49% of the voters will be Republicans?

[Rowan]

Day 5 Muhlenberg Tracker

Toomey: 46%(+1)
Sestak: 43%(+1)

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/

[Rowan]

Toomey: 47%
Sestak: 42%