The Hill polls 10 House districts (Sophomores, I guess?)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-3/124903-district-by-district

AZ-05
David Schweikert (R) -  45
Harry Mitchell (D) - 42

IL-14
Randy Hultgren (R) - 43
Bill Foster (D) - 42

IL-17
Bobby Schilling (R) - 45
Phil Hare (D) - 38

MS-01
Alan Nunnelee (R) - 44
Travis Childers (D) - 39

NH-01
Frank Guinta (R) - 47
Carol Shea-Porter (D) - 42

NY-19
John Hall (D) - 43
Nan Hayworth (R) - 43

NY-24
Mike Arcuri (D) - 47
Richard Hanna (R) - 37

PA-08
Patrick J. Murphy (D) - 46
Mike Fitzpatrick (R) - 43

PA-10
Chris Carney (D) - 41
Tom Marino (R) - 41

WI-08
Reid Ribble (R) - 45
Steve Kagen (D) - 44

[Skill and Chance]

WTF Phil Hare?  Nothing else is too surprising.  Several of these seats are gone, but that was already known.  The PA incumbents are more competitive than many had feared.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Other than Phil Hare (IL-17), these are better than I expected for the Democrats.

[Badger]

Best poll results for Patrick Murphy in quite some time.

[minionofmidas]

IL-17
Bobby Schilling (R) - 45
Phil Hare (D) - 38

Egad.

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What?

Nothing else looks odd.

(And just as I was going to post, I remember to doublecheck whether that's NY-24 or 25. Seeing as it's 24... that one's odd too.)

[Skill and Chance]

I would imagine that Hare's district would be one of the more difficult ones to poll.


It takes a linear algebra professor to think that up.

[Brittain33]

(And just as I was going to post, I remember to doublecheck whether that's NY-24 or 25. Seeing as it's 24... that one's odd too.)

Is there a trend where voting against HCR insulates Democrats in swing (not overly conservative) districts? Him, Altmire... anyone else?

[Eraserhead]

I need some more polls of NY-20. I think everyone understands that NY-19 is a dead heat or close to it.

[xavier110]

I'm most interested in NY-23, now that it's a two-way race. Aside from NY-19, that race looks to be the most competitive in NY. Many Democrats, surprisingly, seem to have benefited from Paladino's collapse. I didn't think the Governor's race would affect things.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm most interested in NY-23, now that it's a two-way race. Aside from NY-19, that race looks to be the most competitive in NY. Many Democrats, surprisingly, seem to have benefited from Paladino's collapse. I didn't think the Governor's race would affect things.

Likewise Murphy and Carney could be benefiting from a late Sestak surge in PA.  Also, wasn't Kagen's seat in WI supposed to be gone, or certainly much higher on the target list than Hare's in IL?

[cinyc]

I would imagine that Hare's district would be one of the more difficult ones to poll.


It takes a linear algebra professor to think that up.

Difficult to poll?  No.  Many pollsters use a registration-based sample, anyway.  Difficult to advertise?  Yes.  It has to be in 4+ TV Markets.

[Torie]

(And just as I was going to post, I remember to doublecheck whether that's NY-24 or 25. Seeing as it's 24... that one's odd too.)

Is there a trend where voting against HCR insulates Democrats in swing (not overly conservative) districts? Him, Altmire... anyone else?

Just about all of the blue dogs who are pretty safe - Mathieson, Holden, Ross, Minnick, Barnet or whatever his name is in the Lexington, KY seat KY-6 I think it is. Barone had a piece on how a vote for HCR will be a career ender for so many Dems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is that borne out by facts or is it Barone depressing us all by just writing what he wants to be the case again?

[Brittain33]

Is that borne out by facts or is it Barone depressing us all by just writing what he wants to be the case again?

It may well be the case that every blue dog who is safe, voted against it. There are some blue dogs who voted against it, who are either going down or polling in trouble (Edwards, Childers, Taylor, Lincoln Davis), so it didn't necessarily save them.

[Sam Spade]

(And just as I was going to post, I remember to doublecheck whether that's NY-24 or 25. Seeing as it's 24... that one's odd too.)

Is there a trend where voting against HCR insulates Democrats in swing (not overly conservative) districts? Him, Altmire... anyone else?

Just about all of the blue dogs who are pretty safe - Mathieson, Holden, Ross, Minnick, Barnet or whatever his name is in the Lexington, KY seat KY-6 I think it is. Barone had a piece on how a vote for HCR will be a career ender for so many Dems.

KY-6 is the only of these that both parties have thrown a good bit of money at (and still are).

Btw, did you notice what race DCCC threw money at for the first time today?

[Brittain33]

Btw, did you notice what race DCCC threw money at for the first time today?

Which race was it?

[Sam Spade]

Btw, did you notice what race DCCC threw money at for the first time today?

Which race was it?

Torie and I talked about this one a few months ago and I told him to watch it - IA-02, 216K expended to be exact.

[Vepres]

Is that borne out by facts or is it Barone depressing us all by just writing what he wants to be the case again?

It may well be the case that every blue dog who is safe, voted against it. There are some blue dogs who voted against it, who are either going down or polling in trouble (Edwards, Childers, Taylor, Lincoln Davis), so it didn't necessarily save them.

OTOH, voting for it seems to guarantee that a blue dog will be in trouble. Markey's seat is likely gone, and Salazar is in trouble (for some perspective, most considered it likely D last spring).

Can you think of any blue dogs that voted for it that are safe or heavily favored?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Markey was gone from the moment she won. I remember arguing that at the time.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is that borne out by facts or is it Barone depressing us all by just writing what he wants to be the case again?

It may well be the case that every blue dog who is safe, voted against it. There are some blue dogs who voted against it, who are either going down or polling in trouble (Edwards, Childers, Taylor, Lincoln Davis), so it didn't necessarily save them.

OTOH, voting for it seems to guarantee that a blue dog will be in trouble. Markey's seat is likely gone, and Salazar is in trouble (for some perspective, most considered it likely D last spring).

Can you think of any blue dogs that voted for it that are safe or heavily favored?

Looking at the list from Wikipedia, there's Baca, Cooper, Cuellar, Harman, Michaud, Schiff, David Scott, and Mike Thompson. Of course, some of these are probably BDINOs.

[Brittain33]

Looking at the list from Wikipedia, there's Baca, Cooper, Cuellar, Harman, Michaud, Schiff, David Scott, and Mike Thompson. Of course, some of these are probably BDINOs.

They are all blue dogs is relatively Democratic districts.

[minionofmidas]

How much did Schiff's district get changed in 2002? The old version would certainly be a district to look at for an election day surprise (I mean, with so many seats actually talked about, you obviously have to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find potential surprises.)

[Torie]

How much did Schiff's district get changed in 2002? The old version would certainly be a district to look at for an election day surprise (I mean, with so many seats actually talked about, you obviously have to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find potential surprises.)

Rather massively. It's PVI is now D +14.  Under the old lines from the 1990's, it might be D +5 or so. The GOP ceded this seat.