What's Going On In PA?!

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

As a Keystone stater, I haven't really noticed anything to account for Sestak's surge in the polls, save for Sestak's attack ads. What's going on?

[Keystone Phil]

Calm down. 

Is the race tightening? Yes. Do I really believe Sestak erased Toomey's double digit lead without something major happening? No.

[SPQR]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

[Keystone Phil]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

[Eraserhead]

I wish somebody would pay SUSA to do a poll.

[SPQR]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

[Badger]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

Well, no. Rasmussen's 10 point lead is the one of only two "double digit" leads Toomey's shown since Labor Day, the other being from almost a month ago. Rassy's poll is over week old and, as Spade correctly noted, weighted inaccurately GOP in its sample.

Excluding Rassy's week old and questionable poll, the race had been averaging a 5-9 point Toomey lead---and that was also more than 2-3 weeks ago.

Just sayin'....

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

Because there wasn't any reason for the shift. Such a major shift doesn't happen without a reason.

[Brittain33]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

Because there wasn't any reason for the shift. Such a major shift doesn't happen without a reason.

Obama rally in Philadelphia, Democrats coming home in the final weeks of the campaign, some campaign ad resonating. It could be a lot of movement among fickle undecideds rather than voters actively shifting from Toomey to Sestak.

[Eraserhead]

I love how RealClearPolitics includes Fiorina's internal poll in their average of her race and yet excludes Sestak's in his. Damned right-wing spin doctors!

[minionofmidas]

I love how RealClearPolitics includes Fiorina's internal poll in their average of her race and yet excludes Sestak's in his. Damned right-wing spin doctors!

Anybody is still taking that site seriously?

[Meeker]

Looks like the dog poop ad worked.

[Keystone Phil]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

Well, no. Rasmussen's 10 point lead is the one of only two "double digit" leads Toomey's shown since Labor Day, the other being from almost a month ago. Rassy's poll is over week old and, as Spade correctly noted, weighted inaccurately GOP in its sample.

Excluding Rassy's week old and questionable poll, the race had been averaging a 5-9 point Toomey lead---and that was also more than 2-3 weeks ago.

Just sayin'....

I said almost double digit lead and note the other polls that showed Toomey with a seven to nine point advantage and I did say that it was two weeks ago.

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

Because there wasn't any reason for the shift. Such a major shift doesn't happen without a reason.

Obama rally in Philadelphia, Democrats coming home in the final weeks of the campaign, some campaign ad resonating. It could be a lot of movement among fickle undecideds rather than voters actively shifting from Toomey to Sestak.

Those aren't big enough events to send Toomey down to the low 40% range.

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

Because there have been a flood of polls since...well...the very beginning of this race showing Toomey in the lead every time and now only two questionable polls show Sestak barely ahead.    

I said the race is narrowing but I'll wait until a third poll shows Sestak up to say it's a total toss up.

[Keystone Phil]

http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/10/20/gopers-acknowledge-problem-pennsylvania

[Torie]

Nate Silver seems to agree with Phil. PPP is not to be trusted (close ties to the Dems, and some odd little statistical noise is attending PPP's act at the moment), but rumor has it that the internals of both parties show the race "tightening."  So there you have it. I don't see Sestak winning (Obama not popular enough), and if he does, than something is really odd with all the PA CD's supposedly going to flip - maybe as many 5 and perhaps even 6 - although there is something going on for the Dems in PA-8 out of Bucks County for reasons which escape me.

[Keystone Phil]

Nate Silver seems to agree with Phil.

Imagine the laughter that would follow that comment that if it was made just two years ago. 

[Keystone Phil]

although there is something going on for the Dems in PA-8 out of Bucks County for reasons which escape me.

Pat Murphy is a hell of a campaigner with a strong organization and he remains personally popular. That one will be another close race.

We're expecting to flip four seats. Picking up five or six is a definite possibility (PA 8 is one of them).

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania voters have requested nearly 127,000 absentee ballots so far. Of that total, Republican voters made up 50 percent and Democrats made up 42 percent, according to figures collected Tuesday afternoon.

The state records show Republicans are returning their absentee ballots in greater numbers as well. The state has received about 40 percent of requested ballots, and Republican registrations outpace Democrats by 19 points, 56 percent to 37 percent, according to the state data. Absentee ballots made up 5 percent of total turnout in 2008.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/50845-1.html?ET=rollcall%3Ae8986%3A80063109a%3A&st=email

[Brittain33]

I wonder what the exact numbers were for '08 and '06. I don't trust Democratic operatives to present an objective view. From that article: "Democrats note that absentee ballot totals have favored Republicans in each of the past two cycles, although the edge was smaller than it appears to be this year. "

[Keystone Phil]

...we better be awake at 6:30 AM Eastern. That's when they'll release their numbers on the Senate race.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

...we better be awake at 6:30 AM Eastern. That's when they'll release their numbers on the Senate race.

As close as this one is getting, the networks might not call it before then.

[Progressive]

Let's talk PA Senate for a second.

What do you predict will be the outcome. I would love to see Joe Sestak elected senator but I am still skeptical.

What do you think the final numbers will be?

[Holmes]

It'll be close, but not as close as Illinois or Nevada will be. If Sestak can't get to high 40's by election day, Toomey will win.

[tmthforu94]

I think Toomey still has the edge. I'm not sure if he's been campaigning at full steam thus far, but now he will be, and will go more negative on Sestak. He also stands to benefit a little from Corbett's coattails.

[tmthforu94]

...we better be awake at 6:30 AM Eastern. That's when they'll release their numbers on the Senate race.

As close as this one is getting, the networks might not call it before then.

What? Either I'm crazy, or your crazy, because that doesn't make any sense. Are you talking about election night results? Because I think Phil was talking about a poll coming out tomorrow.