Paul leads Conway by 5

[Whacker77]

Mason Dixon conducted this poll on the 18th and 19th.

Paul         48%
Conway   43%

http://www.kentucky.com/2010/10/20/1488287/kentucky-poll-shows-paul-with.html

[OC]

Conway will do about the same as Manchin lose by five pts.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Not bad. Has M-D polled this one before?

[N.i.K.]

This is about where I expected it to be. It's a Republican year, and it seems that even though "Aqua Buddha" has been out there, that it won't cost Paul his victory, or may even backfire. If this year was 50-50, then I think Conway would win win, but in this environment, I strongly doubt it.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

Why is everyone saying Aqua Buddha will backfire if,since that ad,the gap has become increasingly smaller?

[Whacker77]

This is the first poll from Mason Dixon in the state.  I have been in contact through email with a Republican who knows people in the Paul campaign and he told me yesterday new polling in the field right now shows Paul has benefited more than Rasmussen and Mason Dixon show.  Of course, that all hearsay though.  After having had a week to digest the news in the state, I do think Conway has suffered due to the add.

[OC]

The dems will win either WVA or Ky, neither or one of them.

[Holmes]

The dems will win either WVA or Ky, neither or one of them.

Yeah...

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The dems will win either WVA or Ky, neither or one of them.

It's pretty hard to disagree with that.

[Whacker77]

According their website, PPP is polling in Kentucky right now and likely will release their numbers tomorrow.  Nate Silver has noted what he calls a "house effect" with them since they began polling for Kos.  I wouldn't be surprised to see PPP have Conway tied or in the lead by a point or so.  I don't get the sense that's how the race stands, but I think a bit of rally the troops might be likely.  Conway held a conference call today with Wasserman-Schultz to say Paul is a misogynist.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Conway is basically running like a sleazy Republican... and apparently it's working (at least to some extent). Very funny to watch!

[Whacker77]

It could be working, but I get the sense it's not.  I admit I could be wrong.  I think I posted this, but supposedly polling going on right now, not PPP by the way, has shown Conway is hurting from the ad.  Certainly, Paul must see it as a plus because he keeps bringing it up while Conway has gone underground since early in the week.  He's still campaigning obviously, but he's not been on TV as he was earlier.  He also said it likely the Buddha as will go away at the end of the week.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

It could be working, but I get the sense it's not.  I admit I could be wrong.  I think I posted this, but supposedly polling going on right now, not PPP by the way, has shown Conway is hurting from the ad.  Certainly, Paul must see it as a plus because he keeps bringing it up while Conway has gone underground since early in the week.  He's still campaigning obviously, but he's not been on TV as he was earlier.  He also said it likely the Buddha as will go away at the end of the week.

Where'd you hear that exactly?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

It could be working, but I get the sense it's not.  I admit I could be wrong.  I think I posted this, but supposedly polling going on right now, not PPP by the way, has shown Conway is hurting from the ad.  Certainly, Paul must see it as a plus because he keeps bringing it up while Conway has gone underground since early in the week.  He's still campaigning obviously, but he's not been on TV as he was earlier.  He also said it likely the Buddha as will go away at the end of the week.

Where'd you hear that exactly?

This is the first poll from Mason Dixon in the state.  I have been in contact through email with a Republican who knows people in the Paul campaign and he told me yesterday new polling in the field right now shows Paul has benefited more than Rasmussen and Mason Dixon show.  Of course, that all hearsay though.  After having had a week to digest the news in the state, I do think Conway has suffered due to the add.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Ah, sounds like spin. I certainly don't see any reason not to trust M-D.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Guys, abandon all hope, period.

In a year like 2006 or 2008, he'd kick the s**t out of Rand. After all, McConnell was at real danger from an unknown candidate two years ago, and in 2004 unknown guy named Mongiardo comes just within an inches to unseat Bunning, and he'd do it if there were no Bush coattails.

Conway, much stronger politician than Mongiardo and Lusford, would make it, but not in 2010.

[JulioMadrid]

Guys, abandon all hope, period.

In a year like 2006 or 2008, he'd kick the s**t out of Rand. After all, McConnell was at real danger from an unknown candidate two years ago, and in 2004 unknown guy named Mongiardo comes just within an inches to unseat Bunning, and he'd do it if there were no Bush coattails.

Conway, much stronger politician than Mongiardo and Lusford, would make it, but not in 2010.

I still think conway will win. yes, I know I may sound crazy, but I really believe conway has the edge xD.

[oakvale]

From PPP's Twitter-

Started up in Kentucky last night, strong sentiment in state that 'Aqua Buddha' ad was not appropriate

The long-awaited backlash? Of course, whether feeling the ad is inappropriate translates into voting for Rand Paul is the real question.

[Whacker77]

You beat me to that PPP twitter posting.  I think Conway may, and I stress may, soon be gearing up for his re-election as AG next year.  It was a Hail Mary.

[Fuzzy]

Guys, abandon all hope, period.

In a year like 2006 or 2008, he'd kick the s**t out of Rand. After all, McConnell was at real danger from an unknown candidate two years ago, and in 2004 unknown guy named Mongiardo comes just within an inches to unseat Bunning, and he'd do it if there were no Bush coattails.

Conway, much stronger politician than Mongiardo and Lusford, would make it, but not in 2010.

It's a five point race.  In 1994, just weeks before the election, Mario Cuomo was sometimes up ten points in the polls, but he still lost.  Things can change in two weeks.

[Meeker]

Just because voters say it's inappropriate when asked as a polling question doesn't mean it's backfired and wasn't an effective ad. The media has been nailing it in to peoples' heads for the past week that this ad was inappropriate and that's how people think they "should" respond when asked whether they were offended.

Unless the margin between Paul and Conway starts increasing again (which in the end is the only thing that matters) then the ad cannot be said to have backfired.

[oakvale]

Just because voters say it's inappropriate when asked as a polling question doesn't mean it's backfired and wasn't an effective ad. The media has been nailing it in to peoples' heads for the past week that this ad was inappropriate and that's how people think they "should" respond when asked whether they were offended.

Unless the margin between Paul and Conway starts increasing again (which in the end is the only thing that matters) then the ad cannot be said to have backfired.

That's pretty much my thinking. People may well have thought it inappropriate doesn't mean that

A) It hasn't raised some doubts about Rand Paul

B) There's going to be some kind of backlash

It'll be interesting  to see the results - still a narrow Paul lead?

[Senator Sbane]

Conway is basically running like a sleazy Republican... and apparently it's working (at least to some extent). Very funny to watch!

Yeah, this is why I want Conway to win. Obviously he is running a sleazy campaign, but the Republicans should get a little taste of their medicine. Someone should also try some voter suppression among old, white voters, as is being done with Latinos currently.

[Senator Sbane]

From PPP's Twitter-

Started up in Kentucky last night, strong sentiment in state that 'Aqua Buddha' ad was not appropriate

The long-awaited backlash? Of course, whether feeling the ad is inappropriate translates into voting for Rand Paul is the real question.

Most effective attack ads would be called "innappropriate" if polling is done on them. People don't like attacks ads, but they work. Of course if this specific attack ad worked or not, who knows.

[The Vorlon]

This is the first poll from Mason Dixon in the state.  I have been in contact through email with a Republican who knows people in the Paul campaign and he told me yesterday new polling in the field right now shows Paul has benefited more than Rasmussen and Mason Dixon show.  Of course, that all hearsay though.  After having had a week to digest the news in the state, I do think Conway has suffered due to the add.

I am getting in the 6-8 range.  A bunch of undecided broke, but they broke more or less evenly.

Colorado had gotten VERY close however, Buck's people think he's down a smidgen right now.