What's the highest PVI district the Republicans will pick up this cycle?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

(Somewhat) noteworthy races:

D+4 - CA-18, CA-47, CO-07, PA-11, WI-03
D+5 - CA-20, CT-04, IA-01, MA-10, NJ-12, NM-01, OH-13
D+6 - AZ-07, NY-22
D+7 - IA-02, MA-06, MO-03, NM-03, PA-13
D+8 - ME-01, MA-05, NJ-06, OR-01

[Meeker]

I think PA-11 is gone, so I'll go with D+4. Some of those D+5's are possible though.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I voted greater than D+8 though I'm not entirely sure of that.

The way waves work -- rather than picking up the 40 closest seats, you usually pick off seat 1, seat 2, seat 3, seat 4, seat 6, seat 7, seat 9, seat 11, seat 24, etc.  There will be some tremendous upsets, and some surprising holds as well.

[tpfkaw]

>D+8.  MA-04.

Fwank just loaned his campaign $200K.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

D+6. AZ-07 Grijalva.

I don't know why, but I'm kind of feeling antsy that a senior democrat will go down unexpectedly.. I do think the best chance of that would be Dingell, D+13, MI-15. Don't know why but I'm scared to death of that race for some reason, even though I know there's no reason I should be.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

D+4 (PA-11)

[DrScholl]

No higher than D+4.

[Brittain33]

>D+8.  MA-04.

Fwank just loaned his campaign $200K.

I can't wrap my brain around a district with Newton, Brookline, Fall River, and New Bedford electing a Republican. Those four cities must be half the population of the district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know why, but I'm kind of feeling antsy that a senior democrat will go down unexpectedly.. I do think the best chance of that would be Dingell, D+13, MI-15. Don't know why but I'm scared to death of that race for some reason, even though I know there's no reason I should be.

The very fact that it has been mentioned in mainstream circles as a possible shocker makes it less likely to be one. Probably. The same goes for Frank, I guess.