PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey's (R) lead down to 2 points
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:16:54 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 Senatorial Election Polls
  PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey's (R) lead down to 2 points
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey's (R) lead down to 2 points  (Read 2073 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2010, 05:03:11 AM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2010, 05:06:26 AM »

Well, the main difference between this and the PPP poll is that Sestak does much better with the base in the Quinnipiac poll (getting almost 90%), but he does much worse among Independents. PPP had him tied with Independents, while Quinnipiac shows Sestak trailing by 20.

So, itīs almost guaranteed that Sestak will get 90% of Democrats on Election Day, but I canīt say much about Independents. I can only say that he has to at least achieve a tie with them to win the race, or not lose by more than 5 points.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2010, 05:15:48 AM »

Alright, so we are officially dealing with a tied ball game here (or close enough to one anyway).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2010, 05:19:07 AM »

Yep, this race is 100% tied now.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2010, 05:31:39 AM »

All except Rasmussen who still has yet to come out with a poll. He cant now have a troll poll showing Toomey leading by nine again.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2010, 05:40:39 AM »

According to the internals here, Toomey's voters are slightly more open to the idea of changing their mind about who they support (13% to 9%).
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2010, 06:51:49 AM »

Voters want a Senator to oppose Obama by an eight point margin - 51% to 43%. 74% said they are dissatisfied or angry about the federal government. Good signs for Toomey.
Logged
tokar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 503
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.87, S: -6.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2010, 07:49:13 AM »

Just another crap university poll, right? lol...

When the Uni poll suits the republicans, its a good poll which can be analyzed well.
When the Uni poll suits the democrats, its a crap university poll.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2010, 08:28:19 AM »

The problem with getting an accurate read on Independents in PA, is that the subsample is so small that the number is bound to be innacurate. The largest Indies will make up the overal election day vote is 15% tops and it is at 7% of the absentees returned so far.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2010, 08:39:37 AM »

Soooo...is this race still comfortably Toomey's or what? Smiley
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2010, 08:53:46 AM »

Just another crap university poll, right? lol...

When the Uni poll suits the republicans, its a good poll which can be analyzed well.
When the Uni poll suits the democrats, its a crap university poll.

Well... no. Crap uni polls are crap uni polls. Most uni polls are crap ones. But Quinnnnnnipppppiaaaayyyyykkkkk is decent.
Logged
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,088


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2010, 08:56:38 AM »

Just another crap university poll, right? lol...

When the Uni poll suits the republicans, its a good poll which can be analyzed well.
When the Uni poll suits the democrats, its a crap university poll.
Quinnipiac isn't your average univ. poll. They have a pretty good reputation.

Anyway, it was obvious this race was tightening when the national Republican and Democratic parties started throwing more and more money into ads for this race.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,803
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2010, 10:09:29 AM »

I am the only one who voted that pennsylvania was going to be the closetst of senate contest. and 'll probably be right. I think Sestak wins, because 50% of people here are democrats, he only wins about 85% of their vote and about 35-40% of independent vote if turnout is not THAT republican
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2010, 12:42:31 PM »

Q is a bad pollster, like florida primaries proved it.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2010, 01:00:28 PM »

Q is great in some states, but PA is not one of them.  It's okay for PA, but not the best.  I'd go with F & M, if one comes out, for PA.

Still, I ecpect that the race is closing, maybe within MOE.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2010, 01:03:55 PM »

Q is great in some states, but PA is not one of them.  It's okay for PA, but not the best.  I'd go with F & M, if one comes out, for PA.

Still, I ecpect that the race is closing, maybe within MOE.


F&M has 40% undecided 1 week ahead of the election ... Tongue
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 14 queries.