CT: Suffolk University: Blumenthal (D) destroys McMahon

[cinyc]

The strangest thing about this poll is that in Suffolk's own hand-picked bellwether town, Plainfield, Blumenthal only leads by 4, 46-42.  I'm not sure what their bellwether sample size was, but it is totally out of line with the topline.

[cinyc]

In other words, what you're trying to tell me is that Suffolk is a crappy pollster, outside Massachusetts, maybe.

I don't think their NH polling was that bad, either.

The bellwether polling is the most interesting polling Suffolk does.  I'm surprised more pollsters don't try it.

[cinyc]

Well, Plainfield was only 54-44 for Obama.

That explains a lot.

I have it as an R+4.64 town (CTPVI, not national PVI).  Suffolk seems to have picked it based on the last midterm results, though.

There are better CT bellwethers in the D+1 to R+1 range - Rocky Hill, Willington, Wethersfield, Waterford, South Windsor and Plainville, among others.

[cinyc]

Sorry fellow GOPers, but this is not going to be that good of an election night if a terrible candidate who gave the worst debate answer in the history of debates to the simple question of "how do you create a job" is just thoroughly destroying his opponent.  If this was going to be anything approaching a "wave", "tidalwave" or "tsunami", this race would be close and go down to the wire.

Yeah, because Republicans always win Senate elections in Connecticut, especially when running against a very popular Democratic politician who has held statewide office for decades. 

This race is closer than Suffolk thinks.  We have a huge range in polling from Rasmussen (D+5) Suffolk (D+18).