PA-06: Monmouth: Rep. Gerlach (R) is safe

[Tender Branson]

54% Jim Gerlach (R)
44% Manan Trivedi (D)

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 642
likely voters from October 18 to 20, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.9 percent.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP37_PA06.pdf

[Senator X]

The recent Democratic surge in the state will leave him with only a 51-49% victory

[Keystone Phil]

51 or 52% of the vote, as always.

[Landslide Lyndon]

51 or 52% of the vote, as always.

What will happen to this district?

[Mr.Phips]

51 or 52% of the vote, as always.

What will happen to this district?

Cant really be made any more Republican unless Republicans want to make PA-07 unwinnable for Meehan.  Republicans face a really tough choice in the Philly suburbs in redistricting.  Its almost impossible for there not to be two Dem districts there. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

51 or 52% of the vote, as always.

What will happen to this district?

Cant really be made any more Republican unless Republicans want to make PA-07 unwinnable for Meehan.  Republicans face a really tough choice in the Philly suburbs in redistricting.  Its almost impossible for there not to be two Dem districts there. 

Maybe this will happen since Meehan will be a freshman.
Unless of course they decide to dismantle them, create a new one and then let the two of them settle it out in a primary.

[Meeker]

51 or 52% of the vote, as always.

What will happen to this district?

Cant really be made any more Republican unless Republicans want to make PA-07 unwinnable for Meehan.  Republicans face a really tough choice in the Philly suburbs in redistricting.  Its almost impossible for there not to be two Dem districts there. 

Maybe this will happen since Meehan will be a freshman.
Unless of course they decide to dismantle them, create a new one and then let the two of them settle it out in a primary.

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

[Mr.Phips]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

[Keystone Phil]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.

[Mr.Phips]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.

Well, in that case, they would likely get rid of the Montgomery section of PA-07 and part of Delaware and put them into PA-06, while grabbing Berks from PA-06.  That would help Meehan withstand a Democratic comeback in 2012. 

[muon2]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.

Well, in that case, they would likely get rid of the Montgomery section of PA-07 and part of Delaware and put them into PA-06, while grabbing Berks from PA-06.  That would help Meehan withstand a Democratic comeback in 2012. 

But then the problem is CD 8 if Fitz wins there. It's very hard to see a way to protect all three districts (6, 7, for the GOP if 2012 reverts to typical voting patterns for a Pres year. Protecting 2 of 3 isn't that hard.

[Landslide Lyndon]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

And are you sure he will survive the primary and won't suffer the fate of Castle, Norton, Crist or Murkowski?
RINO hunters will be even more emboldened in 2012.

[Keystone Phil]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

And are you sure he will survive the primary and won't suffer the fate of Castle, Norton, Crist or Murkowski?
RINO hunters will be even more emboldened in 2012.

It depends on who else (if anyone) runs in 2012.

[Sibboleth]

After O'Donnell, no 'moderate' Republican is safe in a statewide primary.

[Keystone Phil]

After O'Donnell, no 'moderate' Republican is safe in a statewide primary.

I don't believe he would be but he's not a definite loss.

[Sibboleth]

After O'Donnell, no 'moderate' Republican is safe in a statewide primary.

I don't believe he would be but he's not a definite loss.

Not definite, but the climate has changed.

[Meeker]

Duplicating what happened in Delaware and Alaska should be more difficult in a more expensive state like Pennsylvania. At least theoretically.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Duplicating what happened in Delaware and Alaska should be more difficult in a more expensive state like Pennsylvania. At least theoretically.

Well, Florida was even more expensive but that wasn't a problem for Rubio.

[Meeker]

Duplicating what happened in Delaware and Alaska should be more difficult in a more expensive state like Pennsylvania. At least theoretically.

Well, Florida was even more expensive but that wasn't a problem for Rubio.

Well sure. I was just thinking more along the lines of the massive last minute ad blitz that the TPX did in Alaska and Delaware.

[So the Heroes Fall]

How about this map for SE PA?



Since the GOP has basically given up on beating Schwartz and Holden it might work for them. Phil would probably hate it as a result if it didn't possibly put his home in PA-08.

[muon2]

How about this map for SE PA?



Since the GOP has basically given up on beating Schwartz and Holden it might work for them. Phil would probably hate it as a result if it didn't possibly put his home in PA-08.

Unless Pitts is going to retire, you've put him out of his district. According to the bio, he lives in southern Chester, just north of DE and near to Delco. It also wastes a lot of Rs in Lebanon Co if the intent is to concede 17 to Holden.

[Keystone Phil]

If that shade of purple in the NE is part of PA 8 then I am just barely in the 8th.    In fact, it looks like my precinct is the only one in my Ward which would make it out of the 13th which would be fine with me but some of the surrounding precincts would help the GOP, too.