PA-06: Monmouth: Rep. Gerlach (R) is safe
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:08:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 House Election Polls
  PA-06: Monmouth: Rep. Gerlach (R) is safe
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PA-06: Monmouth: Rep. Gerlach (R) is safe  (Read 2836 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2010, 01:29:46 PM »

54% Jim Gerlach (R)
44% Manan Trivedi (D)

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 642
likely voters from October 18 to 20, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.9 percent.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP37_PA06.pdf
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2010, 02:46:57 PM »

The recent Democratic surge in the state will leave him with only a 51-49% victory Wink
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2010, 02:50:38 PM »

51 or 52% of the vote, as always.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2010, 03:04:03 PM »


What will happen to this district?
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,542


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2010, 03:28:45 PM »


Cant really be made any more Republican unless Republicans want to make PA-07 unwinnable for Meehan.  Republicans face a really tough choice in the Philly suburbs in redistricting.  Its almost impossible for there not to be two Dem districts there. 
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2010, 03:32:03 PM »


Cant really be made any more Republican unless Republicans want to make PA-07 unwinnable for Meehan.  Republicans face a really tough choice in the Philly suburbs in redistricting.  Its almost impossible for there not to be two Dem districts there. 

Maybe this will happen since Meehan will be a freshman.
Unless of course they decide to dismantle them, create a new one and then let the two of them settle it out in a primary.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2010, 06:02:01 PM »


Cant really be made any more Republican unless Republicans want to make PA-07 unwinnable for Meehan.  Republicans face a really tough choice in the Philly suburbs in redistricting.  Its almost impossible for there not to be two Dem districts there. 

Maybe this will happen since Meehan will be a freshman.
Unless of course they decide to dismantle them, create a new one and then let the two of them settle it out in a primary.

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2010, 09:24:41 PM »


One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,542


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2010, 09:36:59 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2010, 09:40:02 PM by Mr.Phips »


One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2010, 09:41:54 PM »


One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,542


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2010, 10:01:16 PM »


One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.

Well, in that case, they would likely get rid of the Montgomery section of PA-07 and part of Delaware and put them into PA-06, while grabbing Berks from PA-06.  That would help Meehan withstand a Democratic comeback in 2012. 
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2010, 11:44:41 PM »


One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.

Well, in that case, they would likely get rid of the Montgomery section of PA-07 and part of Delaware and put them into PA-06, while grabbing Berks from PA-06.  That would help Meehan withstand a Democratic comeback in 2012. 

But then the problem is CD 8 if Fitz wins there. It's very hard to see a way to protect all three districts (6, 7, Cool for the GOP if 2012 reverts to typical voting patterns for a Pres year. Protecting 2 of 3 isn't that hard.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2010, 12:34:19 AM »


One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."


And are you sure he will survive the primary and won't suffer the fate of Castle, Norton, Crist or Murkowski?
RINO hunters will be even more emboldened in 2012.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2010, 08:37:37 AM »


One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."


And are you sure he will survive the primary and won't suffer the fate of Castle, Norton, Crist or Murkowski?
RINO hunters will be even more emboldened in 2012.

It depends on who else (if anyone) runs in 2012.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2010, 09:59:12 AM »

After O'Donnell, no 'moderate' Republican is safe in a statewide primary.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2010, 10:17:24 AM »

After O'Donnell, no 'moderate' Republican is safe in a statewide primary.

I don't believe he would be but he's not a definite loss.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2010, 10:22:19 AM »

After O'Donnell, no 'moderate' Republican is safe in a statewide primary.

I don't believe he would be but he's not a definite loss.

Not definite, but the climate has changed.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2010, 10:24:22 AM »

Duplicating what happened in Delaware and Alaska should be more difficult in a more expensive state like Pennsylvania. At least theoretically.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2010, 10:43:37 AM »

Duplicating what happened in Delaware and Alaska should be more difficult in a more expensive state like Pennsylvania. At least theoretically.

Well, Florida was even more expensive but that wasn't a problem for Rubio.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2010, 04:57:01 PM »

Duplicating what happened in Delaware and Alaska should be more difficult in a more expensive state like Pennsylvania. At least theoretically.

Well, Florida was even more expensive but that wasn't a problem for Rubio.

Well sure. I was just thinking more along the lines of the massive last minute ad blitz that the TPX did in Alaska and Delaware.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2010, 09:17:37 PM »

How about this map for SE PA?



Since the GOP has basically given up on beating Schwartz and Holden it might work for them. Phil would probably hate it as a result if it didn't possibly put his home in PA-08.
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2010, 10:23:22 PM »

How about this map for SE PA?



Since the GOP has basically given up on beating Schwartz and Holden it might work for them. Phil would probably hate it as a result if it didn't possibly put his home in PA-08.

Unless Pitts is going to retire, you've put him out of his district. According to the bio, he lives in southern Chester, just north of DE and near to Delco. It also wastes a lot of Rs in Lebanon Co if the intent is to concede 17 to Holden.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2010, 11:10:19 PM »

If that shade of purple in the NE is part of PA 8 then I am just barely in the 8th.  Smiley  In fact, it looks like my precinct is the only one in my Ward which would make it out of the 13th which would be fine with me but some of the surrounding precincts would help the GOP, too.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 15 queries.