PA-06: Monmouth: Rep. Gerlach (R) is safe

[Mr.Phips]

51 or 52% of the vote, as always.

What will happen to this district?

Cant really be made any more Republican unless Republicans want to make PA-07 unwinnable for Meehan.  Republicans face a really tough choice in the Philly suburbs in redistricting.  Its almost impossible for there not to be two Dem districts there. 

[Mr.Phips]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

[Mr.Phips]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.

Well, in that case, they would likely get rid of the Montgomery section of PA-07 and part of Delaware and put them into PA-06, while grabbing Berks from PA-06.  That would help Meehan withstand a Democratic comeback in 2012.