PA-06: Monmouth: Rep. Gerlach (R) is safe

[muon2]

One of them could also decide to run against Casey.

Which was apparently the whole point of "Gerlach for Governor 2010."

If the GOP takes the State House (which will likely will), they will not throw Gerlach and Meehan into the same district. Absolutely not happening. Meehan is a favorite amongst the party leadership. He has been around for ages and is very well liked.

I don't know what will happen with redistricting in the SE but I know it will be very interesting. I'm just hoping to have the southern border of the 8th district move one street over into Philly (though that won't be happening).

Well, then maybe they will just keep the Philly districts as is.  If they do, they could risk losing all three of their seats in the next good Dem year(probably 2012).  

They would have been smart to conceed PA-07 to Democrats by stuffing that district with most parts of Montgomery now in PA-06 into the district and connecting that to the part of Delaware county while getting rid of the Chester portion and putting it in Gerlach's district.  That would leave Gerlach with a much safer Chester-Berks district.  

They won't just give up on Meehan. Meehan ought to be a strong incumbent, too. In fact, the 6th might be the one that is conceded if Gerlach runs for the Senate.

Well, in that case, they would likely get rid of the Montgomery section of PA-07 and part of Delaware and put them into PA-06, while grabbing Berks from PA-06.  That would help Meehan withstand a Democratic comeback in 2012. 

But then the problem is CD 8 if Fitz wins there. It's very hard to see a way to protect all three districts (6, 7, for the GOP if 2012 reverts to typical voting patterns for a Pres year. Protecting 2 of 3 isn't that hard.

[muon2]

How about this map for SE PA?



Since the GOP has basically given up on beating Schwartz and Holden it might work for them. Phil would probably hate it as a result if it didn't possibly put his home in PA-08.

Unless Pitts is going to retire, you've put him out of his district. According to the bio, he lives in southern Chester, just north of DE and near to Delco. It also wastes a lot of Rs in Lebanon Co if the intent is to concede 17 to Holden.