PA-17/Susquehanna: Safe D

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.abc27.com/Global/story.asp?S=13365019

Tim Holden (D) - 58
David Argall (R) - 28

[Rowan]

30 points???

[Keystone Phil]

Holden might win rather easily but I highly doubt he'll get anywhere near 60%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

30 points???

They still love him in Schuylkill County, I guess. And Argall hasn't turned out to be a very strong candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

He'll win 58%-42%. 

[Torie]

I wonder what Holden's magic formula is, when so many other blue dogs are biting the dust, including many who previously were political supermen.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Holden has a massive personal vote in parts of the district, especially Schuylkill County. He's a great campaigner and constituency rep.

[Sibboleth]

Holden has a massive personal vote in parts of the district, especially Schuylkill County. He's a great campaigner and constituency rep.

Yeah, Schuylkill votes for him pretty much monolithically.

[Vasall des Midas]

Odd kind of place whose voting patterns I don't understand. The best-fitting simple narrative might be that it just drifted Republican earlier than similar places elsewhere... but somehow stopped drifting at some point.

[Sibboleth]

Odd kind of place whose voting patterns I don't understand.

That's because the district is a failed gerrymander So the boundaries twice illogical

[Vasall des Midas]

Odd kind of place whose voting patterns I don't understand.

That's because the district is a failed gerrymander So the boundaries twice illogical

Nah, I meant Schuylkill County specifically. I'm aware of the failed gerrymander part.

[Verily]

Odd kind of place whose voting patterns I don't understand. The best-fitting simple narrative might be that it just drifted Republican earlier than similar places elsewhere... but somehow stopped drifting at some point.

I think the coal industry died out earlier there than elsewhere. Centralia is nearby, too, although it's in Columbia County. There's also a big Lithuanian population there that is unique in the country, might make for unusual voting patterns. New Philadelphia is the most Lithuanian town in the country, IIRC. The Yuengling brewery is politically important in Pottsville, too.

It voted for Carter at about the statewide average in 1976, which seems to have been the Democrats' high water mark in the county relative to the state. It had voted for Nixon over Humphrey in 1968 even though PA voted for Humphrey, and it swung hard to Reagan in 1980. It did vote for Kennedy in 1960, though.

[Vasall des Midas]

Well Lithuanians are Catholics... anybody know how it voted before 1960?

[Torie]

Well Lithuanians are Catholics... anybody know how it voted before 1960?

Schuylkill County winning party margin


1956    24.01%  R   
1952    18.99%  R   
1948    21.75%  R   
1944      6.28%  R   
1940      5.66%  D   
1936     10.73% D   
1932      3.65%  D   
1928      6.46%  R

[Sibboleth]

I think the coal industry died out earlier there than elsewhere.

I think it may actually have been later; there are a few proper mines still open, or at least there were a few years ago. Maybe they've gone now. Most of the rest of the anthracite coalfield closed in the 50s and 60s. The county is actually plurality Republican by registration, which is unusual for such a place.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Holden has a massive personal vote in parts of the district, especially Schuylkill County. He's a great campaigner and constituency rep.

This is how he did relative towards Obama in each county in 2008
Berks County: +18
Dauphin County: +9
Lebanon County: +13
Perry County: +14
Schuylkill County: +31

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Schuylkill County: +31

That is impressive.

[Vasall des Midas]

So where did Schuylkill's Republicanism come from?

[Torie]

So where did Schuylkill's Republicanism come from?

It is mostly white German and Welsh stock (initially with  Pennsylvania Dutch settlements, and then came the mill workers and miners (a lot of whom were Scot-Irish, and the Welsh RR workers have been GOP since rocks cooled). Now the mining and mills are mostly gone, replaced by a bunch of outlet stores in Pottsville. So, what used to be marginal politically territory, has given the demographics (Catholic Germans have joined their Lutheran cousins as a heavily GOP leaning group now), moved towards the GOP, attended by huge population loses, as the issue of the miners and mill workers get the hell out of Dodge.

[Vasall des Midas]

Except the place has no real R trend. Which is actually just as surprising as the fact that it has an R tradition.

[Badger]

Odd kind of place whose voting patterns I don't understand. The best-fitting simple narrative might be that it just drifted Republican earlier than similar places elsewhere... but somehow stopped drifting at some point.

I think the coal industry died out earlier there than elsewhere. Centralia is nearby, too, although it's in Columbia County. There's also a big Lithuanian population there that is unique in the country, might make for unusual voting patterns. New Philadelphia is the most Lithuanian town in the country, IIRC. The Yuengling brewery is politically important in Pottsville, too.

I  was drinking a Yuengling this weekend and wondered about the family's politics or if they had any. Can you elaborate, Verily?

[Torie]

Badger, I tried out that beer in Gettysburg, in that tavern in the basement below the Dobbin House. It was very good.

Regarding the Rev Dobbin, I wonder how that minister from "Ireland" (I would bet dollars to donuts he was from Antrim), made all his money to build such a fancy house back in the 18th century. Did they have the functional equivalent of televangelists in the 18th century? 

[Badger]

Badger, I tried out that beer in Gettysburg, in that tavern in the basement below the Dobbin House. It was very good.

Regarding the Rev Dobbin, I wonder how that minister from "Ireland" (I would bet dollars to donuts he was from Antrim), made all his money to build such a fancy house back in the 18th century. Did they have the functional equivalent of televangelists in the 18th century? 

A real favorite of mine for 20 years. I'm glad America's Oldest Brewery (in continuous operation) is growing as a regional brew. They've earned it.

If at all possible try their Porter. It's not commercially pushed as heavily as their Lager or Black and Tan, but in terms of pure craftsmanship its their masterpiece.