Minnesota

[Brambila]

The most recent poll in Minnesota that I could find was done at the end of January, with Bush getting 41% of the vote, Kerry getting 43, and 16% were undecided.

I think Bush is going to get Minnesota. With the election of Coleman into the senate, I think that may give Bush some votes.

[dunn]

The most recent poll in Minnesota that I could find was done at the end of January, with Bush getting 41% of the vote, Kerry getting 43, and 16% were undecided.

I think Bush is going to get Minnesota. With the election of Coleman into the senate, I think that may give Bush some votes.

the only time since the 50s' Minnesota went rep was in 72' with Nixon landslide. If bush wins there it's a 350-380 ev for him at least, but he will not.

[Brambila]

Gore only won by two points in 2000.

[angus]

Brambilla,
Coleman is a good man.  He was st paul mayor before he was Senator.  Back in the 90s Mayor Coleman made a major change for job growth, education, and security.  He became frustrated that the Democratic party he had been a part of from his youth had assumed the role of defenders of the status quo, he switched to the Republican party because he felt it held the best opportunity to bring about job growth.

But he will not be a guarantor for Bush, who may just win MN for other reasons like national security, terrorism, and Kerry's perceived lack of direction.  Minnesota is more 'Big River' than 'Farm Belt' for the moment, but that could change quickly.  Coleman should certainly campaign for him, as any help is a good thing, but it would be more like Arnold campaigning for Bush in Alameda County, I'd think.  

[WalterMitty]

im absolutely amazed that bush has a shot at winning minnesota.

perhaps someone with some expertise can enlighten us on what is going on up there.

ive always thought of minnesota as a bastion of liberalism, or prairie populism.  how did republican candidates suddenly become competitive there?

dont read so much into norm coleman getting elected.  1.  he is a moderate, 2. the dems turned the wellstone memorial into a political rally.

we know what happened to rod grams in 2000.

[angus]

Most of my extended family live in MN.  They're all Democrats and are at least as scared of Bush as they were of Reagan.  Prairie populism describes it pretty well.  I gave a long rant a few nights ago and posted this moveon.org mailing that my Uncle, who was in the MN state legislature for about 12 years, sent to me.  They are all fairly concerned that MN may be a target for the Bush campaign.  The northern part of the state, where my parents grew up, is definitely Wellstone Country (even though he's from down around Little House on the Prairie land).  The southern and western parts of the state are more like Iowa.  Schools are pretty good statewide, and teacher's unions have a fairly powerful voice there.  I wouldn't think it's likely either that Bush will win, but the polls are close.  And the election results have been getting less and less one-sided over the years.  The GOP has a strong message, and if Bush can articulate it, he may have a shot.

[dunn]

Gore only won by two points in 2000.

It was 2.5 and Nader got 5+

[ilikeverin]

Schools are pretty good statewide,

Pretty good?  Pshaw!

[nclib]

Minnesota has a good, progressive base. Wellstone's numbers actually went up after he cast a supposedly controversial vote against the war in Iraq. If MN is expected to be close, the base will turn out for Kerry.

[So the Heroes Fall]

how the hell is Coleman going to help Bush at all? He didn't even get 50%. In fact, NO Republican statewide office holder has gotten over 50% of the vote, the only statewide office holder to do so is Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch.

In my little corner of southern Minnesota anti-Bush bumper stickers outnumber pro-ones at least 3:1 and if you go to the metro area it's more like 20:1 and you'd have a tough time finding someone LESS popular than Bush in the Twin Cities. 41% for an incumbent is very poor, especially when the poll was taking early and before Kerry campaigned here. I do not see Bush winning Minnesota, but sadly he'll try and I'll have to deal with his worthless lies and load of crap ads.

edit: originally said "more popular than Bush" which is about as untrue as you can get.

[ilikeverin]

how the hell is Coleman going to help Bush at all? He didn't even get 50%. In fact, NO Republican statewide office holder has gotten over 50% of the vote, the only statewide office holder to do so is Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch.

In my little corner of southern Minnesota anti-Bush bumper stickers outnumber pro-ones at least 3:1 and if you go to the metro area it's more like 20:1 and you'd have a tough time finding someone more popular than Bush in the Twin Cities. 41% for an incumbent is very poor, especially when the poll was taking early and before Kerry campaigned here. I do not see Bush winning Minnesota, but sadly he'll try and I'll have to deal with his worthless lies and load of crap ads.

It's nice to see another Democratic Minnesotan here! (sorry if I didn't catch you earlier)

Anyway, these upper-middle-class/high-class 'burbs I live in are Bush country.  However, when I went to my precinct's caucuses, there were maybe 20+ people... I was surprised!

Also, for another indicator of how liberal Democrats here, just look at the caucus results-- Dennis Kucinich got 16.83% of the caucuses.

[Brambila]

I know people from the St. Cloud and Duluth area- it seems like they have a fairly good education system.

[So the Heroes Fall]

those are both Democratic cities, especially Duluth. It usually votes over 2/3 Democratic.

[angus]

Schools are pretty good statewide,

Pretty good?  Pshaw!

Yes pretty good, according to Morgan Quinto, who considers many factors, including revenue, graduation rate, test scores, among other things.  MN ranks 12th of 50.  Not bad.  By comparison MA is first; VT and CT are next; OH is near the middle; TX is 31st; FL is 40th; CA is 44th, MS and NV are tied for next-to-last; and NM is dead last.  My point about the schools was to suggest the power the teacher's unions in that state, most of whom support ABB.

Brambilla, as you can see from the posts, it's a longshot, but take a look at the 2000 map.  People will bring up the amorphous 'nader factor' but remember local girl winona laduke may have helped Nader, and in any case, the best estimates (38/26/36) nationwide suggests the 'nader factor' is overblown by bitter gore supporters.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/vote2000/cbc/map.htm

[ilikeverin]

Schools are pretty good statewide,

Pretty good?  Pshaw!

People will bring up the amorphous 'nader factor' but remember local girl winona laduke may have helped Nader,

Well... at least you said may...

[zachman]

VP's don't matter for traditional third party candidates. They are a one man show.

[CTguy]

Lets hope that imbecile Nader doesn't get on the ballot again.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Schools are pretty good statewide,

Pretty good?  Pshaw!

Yes pretty good, according to Morgan Quinto, who considers many factors, including revenue, graduation rate, test scores, among other things.  MN ranks 12th of 50.  Not bad.  By comparison MA is first; VT and CT are next; OH is near the middle; TX is 31st; FL is 40th; CA is 44th, MS and NV are tied for next-to-last; and NM is dead last.  My point about the schools was to suggest the power the teacher's unions in that state, most of whom support ABB.

Brambilla, as you can see from the posts, it's a longshot, but take a look at the 2000 map.  People will bring up the amorphous 'nader factor' but remember local girl winona laduke may have helped Nader, and in any case, the best estimates (38/26/36) nationwide suggests the 'nader factor' is overblown by bitter gore supporters.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/vote2000/cbc/map.htm

a map proves nothing. It doesn't show the population density of the counties and in this case the margin of victory. Therefore doesn't show that over 1.6 million out of the state's 5 million residents live in Hennepin and Ramsey counties which went heavily for Gore, and that Bush only won several of the suburban counties that when added in probably make up over half the state by only a few points, usually with the Nader vote taking up over twice the margin of victory.

And I still don't see how Coleman means anything when about half the state (basically everyone who didn't vote for him) absolutely hates him.

If anyone would just drive through Minneapolis, you can just tell how much people hate Bush there. There was a joke earlier that city law required all houses on the corner of the block to have an anti-war sign up. Bush is so hated there you'd be lucky to not get a rude honk or flipped the bird several times if you had a Bush/Cheney bumper sticker.

[HockeyDude]

Schools are pretty good statewide,

Pretty good?  Pshaw!

Yes pretty good, according to Morgan Quinto, who considers many factors, including revenue, graduation rate, test scores, among other things.  MN ranks 12th of 50.  Not bad.  By comparison MA is first; VT and CT are next; OH is near the middle; TX is 31st; FL is 40th; CA is 44th, MS and NV are tied for next-to-last; and NM is dead last.  My point about the schools was to suggest the power the teacher's unions in that state, most of whom support ABB.

Brambilla, as you can see from the posts, it's a longshot, but take a look at the 2000 map.  People will bring up the amorphous 'nader factor' but remember local girl winona laduke may have helped Nader, and in any case, the best estimates (38/26/36) nationwide suggests the 'nader factor' is overblown by bitter gore supporters.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/vote2000/cbc/map.htm

a map proves nothing. It doesn't show the population density of the counties and in this case the margin of victory. Therefore doesn't show that over 1.6 million out of the state's 5 million residents live in Hennepin and Ramsey counties which went heavily for Gore, and that Bush only won several of the suburban counties that when added in probably make up over half the state by only a few points, usually with the Nader vote taking up over twice the margin of victory.

And I still don't see how Coleman means anything when about half the state (basically everyone who didn't vote for him) absolutely hates him.

If anyone would just drive through Minneapolis, you can just tell how much people hate Bush there. There was a joke earlier that city law required all houses on the corner of the block to have an anti-war sign up. Bush is so hated there you'd be lucky to not get a rude honk or flipped the bird several times if you had a Bush/Cheney bumper sticker.

Sounds like fun : P

[CTguy]

Why do people in Minnesota hate Bush so much.  Your description kind of sounds like New Haven or New York City, where you cant walk a block without seeing anti-Bush grafiti.  But you could understand those two cities because they are in the northeast with high minority populations.

[ilikeverin]

Why do people in Minnesota hate Bush so much.  Your description kind of sounds like New Haven or New York City, where you cant walk a block without seeing anti-Bush grafiti.  But you could understand those two cities because they are in the northeast with high minority populations.

I think it's a bit of an exaggeration

[zachman]

We're like that in NH too.

[WalterMitty]

hmm.

it's hard to believe that any state that would elect bob freakin' smith to the us senate, would be upset about the conservatism of bush.

gimme a break.

[ilikeverin]

Oh.  N/M.

[zachman]

Our state has a terrible democratic state organization. But we have hated Bush since Fall of 1999!