Will Prop 19 pass?

[Sbane]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/is-proposition-19-going-up-in-smoke/

A new entry by Nate about Prop 19 and it doesn't look good. He figures there is a 50-50 chance of passage. I am a bit more pessimistic than him but I'm still holding out hope since not one SurveyUsa poll has it trailing (they were the only ones who got Prop 8 right). I am also waiting for the latest PPP and Field poll. To me it looks like Prop 19 has strong support from about 47-48% of the electorate. Getting above that is the tricky part. And there is also the issue of voters coming out to vote in this election who never would in a midterm. We don't know how big that number actually is and whether pollsters are trying to account for it. SurveyUsa is trying, but I don't know about the rest. Also here is a database of Prop 19 polling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_19_%282010%29#Polls

[Joe Biden 2020]

I have a feeling it will, but I hope it doesn't.

[RI]

It has had a similar polling trajectory as Prop 8, so it wouldn't surprise me very much if it is met the same fate.

[Eraserhead]

It has had a similar polling trajectory as Prop 8, so it wouldn't surprise me very much if it is met the same fate.

Exactly. I suspect it will also go down by about 52%-48%. Obviously, I hope that isn't the case though. It's sad how slightly more than half of California voters get to terrorize slightly less than half through this direct democracy facade.

[Tender Branson]

No, because many old people will vote in this election.

I´d say 56-44 No.

[Sbane]

No, because many old people will vote in this election.

I´d say 56-44 No.

SurveyUsa says that the general pattern of this election will be disrupted in California, seemingly due to prop 19. For example the people who usually don't vote in midterms, but are this year, are voting in high numbers for Boxer and Brown. Compare that with anywhere else in the country and it's Republicans who are doing well amongst these new voters. If an older, more Republican electorate did show up in California like in the rest of the country, your estimate would be pretty accurate. These new voters should be able to cut it to a 5 point loss for Prop 19, and they might just save Boxer's ass.

[Franzl]

I have a feeling it will, but I hope it doesn't.

Because, obviously, prohibition works so well, right?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I hope it does, but I also thought Prop 8 wouldn't pass so I'm leaning towards it won't.

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't think it will. What I'm really interested in is the map.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's going to narrowly pass (51-49 or so) due to minority support being understated in polls.

[Sbane]

I don't think it will. What I'm really interested in is the map.

It's going to similar to the prop 215 map, except support will be much lower everywhere. And this will be especially true of the bay area. I believe this is due to the high Asian vote.

[Meeker]

Something interesting from PPP's upcoming poll: 29% of voters under 30 in California say Prop 19 is their biggest reason for voting. 37% say Gov race, 23% Senate race.

[Yelnoc]

I'm a little confused about Proposition 19.  Even if it passes, won't federal laws keep the sale of Marijuana illegal?

[Sbane]

I'm a little confused about Proposition 19.  Even if it passes, won't federal laws keep the sale of Marijuana illegal?

Yes, the feds will be able to crack down whenever they want. What I am not clear about is whether local authorities could use federal law to justify cracking down themselves.

I suspect the legislature will have to step in and clarify things, just like they did with Medical Marijuana. One of the reasons why I decided to vote Democrat for state races in addition to federal races ( I refuse to vote Republican at the federal level). The main reason was Whitman selling out to the police unions. That made me realize Republicans are just as full of sh**t about pension reform as the Democrats are. Then I realized there were a ton of other issues where I wanted the Democrats in control, regulating Marijuana being one of them. Hell, the Republican nominee for attorney general has vowed to crack down on Medical Marijuana...not to mention recreational use.

[Torie]

The Dem establishment has come out against Prop 19. Will that matter? I don't know, but ads are running now that passing Prop 19 will mean a cut off of Fed money to the state, and force employers to hire stoners. Of course, Fed money will be in short supply anyway, but for some, that is their only hope I guess.

[Sbane]

The Dem establishment has come out against Prop 19. Will that matter? I don't know, but ads are running now that passing Prop 19 will mean a cut off of Fed money to the state, and force employers to hire stoners. Of course, Fed money will be in short supply anyway, but for some, that is their only hope I guess.

The Dem establishment is against it because they don't want to hurt themselves amongst swing voters and minorities, especially Hispanics and Asians. I am sure they are absolutely thrilled in private that these stoners will likely ensure Boxer wins and that Brown wins by a decent margin, and perhaps save them some assembly seats as well. I don't know if their opposition has much to do with money. Obama is still going to send money here, and the Republicans will oppose it, regardless of what happens with prop 19.

So the no on 19 people are running ads in LA? There has been absolutely nothing here. What about the yes campaign? Seen any of their ads? Anyways I wouldn't have a problem with companies not hiring potheads, as long as they didn't hire alcoholics either.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It would be nice if it passed, but I predicted that it would narrowly fail a while ago. It's got every major politician against it. It'll probably do similar to Proposition 66.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_66_%282004%29

[Dgov]

It might be that the Democrats are hoping it won't pass so they can put it on the ballot again.  California has probably the single best Democratic turnout of any state right now, and part of that is because young Democrats really support Prop 19 and are actually turning out to vote for it.

[Eraserhead]

It would be nice if it passed, but I predicted that it would narrowly fail a while ago. It's got every major politician against it. It'll probably do similar to Proposition 66.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_66_%282004%29

I bet 66 would pass today though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'd feel comfortable betting against Prop 19 at this point.

[Torie]

Sbane, I have heard no ads for Prop 19, just ads telling me its passage will cost California a lot of federal money, and that employers will have to hire the baked, and their productivity will go into the toilet. That particular ad was funded by the California Chamber of Commerce.

[Sbane]

Sbane, I have heard no ads for Prop 19, just ads telling me its passage will cost California a lot of federal money, and that employers will have to hire the baked, and their productivity will go into the toilet. That particular ad was funded by the California Chamber of Commerce.

This one's going the way of prop 8. A 5 point loss.