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Author Topic: CO: Survey USA: Rumors about Hick's demise are exaggerated  (Read 1423 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 24, 2010, 12:35:05 am »
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New Poll: Colorado Governor by Survey USA on 2010-10-22

Summary: D: 49%, R: 9%, I: 39%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2010, 12:35:21 am »
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Smiley
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2010, 12:44:59 am »
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I hope they're right! Hick winning a solid victory and Maes falling below 10% would be the best possible outcome.
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RIP Update (2009-2015). Never forget.
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2010, 12:52:22 am »
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No!
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Speaker PiT
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2010, 03:00:13 am »
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     Has anyone suggested that Hickenlooper's demise was imminent? I seem to have missed it. Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2010, 03:15:19 am »
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     Has anyone suggested that Hickenlooper's demise was imminent? I seem to have missed it. Tongue

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126519.0
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Speaker PiT
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2010, 03:29:27 am »
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     In my neck of the woods, leading by one percent is not interpreted as being on the verge of demise.
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2010, 05:15:22 am »
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There are no rumours about his 'demise'. But some people have just been jumping to conclusions from looking at recent poll numbers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2010, 07:04:31 am »
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Hickenlooper leads by 49-41 among Independents and Tancredo 65-20 among Republicans.

Lets wait what PPP says about this race, but I dont really see how Tancredo can win this.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2010, 08:22:35 am »
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Independent candidates usually overpoll.  That would suggest that Tancredo needs a substantial lead in polling to be favored.  It's probably not that close but it won't be a 50-25-25 blowout anymore.
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2010, 08:27:48 am »
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phew, if true.
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2010, 08:50:15 am »
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Independent candidates usually overpoll.  That would suggest that Tancredo needs a substantial lead in polling to be favored.  It's probably not that close but it won't be a 50-25-25 blowout anymore.
It's more that clear 3rd-wheel candidates over-poll.  Odds are that Tancredo will pick up some more Maes voters on election day.
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2010, 09:55:45 am »
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Maes below 10% and Hickenlooper still winning is hilarious and great.
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Speaker PiT
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2010, 03:37:22 pm »
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Independent candidates usually overpoll.  That would suggest that Tancredo needs a substantial lead in polling to be favored.  It's probably not that close but it won't be a 50-25-25 blowout anymore.

     Independent candidates overpoll because people tend to shift to major-party candidates for fear of throwing their vote away. There's no basis for thinking that an independent candidate who is actually running well (& far better than the major-party candidate they are drawing support from) will overpoll.
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Meeker
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2010, 03:55:34 pm »
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PPP says that they have Maes down to 5% in their poll, which makes me nervous about how well Tancredo is doing.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2010, 04:02:20 pm »
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PPP says that they have Maes down to 5% in their poll, which makes me nervous about how well Tancredo is doing.

Hard to see how Maes can go any lower. And don't forget that almost a quarter of the votes have already been cast.
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2010, 04:14:18 pm »
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Called it!

BTW, I don't know why you're all panicking, not a single poll has shown Tancredo ahead, ever.

I knew my state was too smart for this Grin
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2010, 04:19:22 pm »
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Wow, Hicks would still have a good shot, even without the GOP split. 
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2010, 05:19:19 pm »
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Called it!

BTW, I don't know why you're all panicking, not a single poll has shown Tancredo ahead, ever.

I knew my state was too smart for this Grin
Who will you vote for?
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2010, 10:41:31 pm »
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He can't, though I think he said he'd probably vote for the Libertarian.
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