Independent candidates usually overpoll. That would suggest that Tancredo needs a substantial lead in polling to be favored. It's probably not that close but it won't be a 50-25-25 blowout anymore.
Independent candidates overpoll because people tend to shift to major-party candidates for fear of throwing their vote away. There's no basis for thinking that an independent candidate who is actually running well (& far better than the major-party candidate they are drawing support from) will overpoll.
