Prop 19 vs. Prop 8

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In what areas will YES on Prop 19 underrun NO on Prop 8 the most?

In what areas will NO on Prop 19 underrun YES on Prop 8 the most?

[Sbane]

Yes on Prop 19 will definitely be more popular in rural areas than Prop 8, and this will be especially true of non-central valley rural areas. The Sierra Nevada counties would be good examples of this.

IMO No on Prop 8 was more popular in the bay area than Prop 19 is. There is also a backlash from the MMJ community going on around here, with the epicenter being in Humboldt and Mendocino counties.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Counties with large amounts of Hispanics are going to have good numbers for Prop 19 as opposed to Prop 8. The same goes for most rural areas, except the change will not be as dramatic. Imperial County should be a tossup on Prop 19 as opposed to where it voted 70% for Prop 8. Areas of the bay area with lots of Azns will underperform on Prop 19. LA's burbs will also show poor numbers for Prop 19, depending on where you're at. Generally it will be areas with large numbers of Asians where 19 will do badly, where Prop 19 might even overperform in a place like Huntington Beach.

Oh, Prop 19 should do slightly better among African-Americans too. Nate Silver did a great segment on why live-interviewer polls are underestimating Hispanic/Black support for Prop 19. I think almost all undecideds in those communities are going to break towards Yes and turnout is going to be understated among those groups as well.

[Sbane]

I think you are being way too optimistic about the Latino vote. They are very family oriented......

[Eraserhead]

I think you are being way too optimistic about the Latino vote. They are very family oriented......

What's more family oriented than passin' around the old bong on a dull night!?! It's better than monopoly.

[tpfkaw]

Are there any Indian reservations in CA?

[Frink]

Are there any Indian reservations in CA?

Quite a few; yes.

[tpfkaw]

Are there any Indian reservations in CA?

Quite a few; yes.

I'd expect Prop 19 to do significantly better than Prop 8 there, too.

[King]

If Prop 19 passes, Obama wins re-election in 2012.

Note: I do not think he has anything to do with it or its repercussions, but as is the nature of politics, tidal waves start in mysterious ways.

[Free Palestine]

I think you are being way too optimistic about the Latino vote. They are very family oriented......

Some would say they have another motivation for voting no...

[King]

I think you are being way too optimistic about the Latino vote. They are very family oriented......

Some would say they have another motivation for voting no...

Minority women will vote staunchly no but men yes is my prediction.  I think it will be roughly the same between white men and women.

[Sbane]

If Prop 19 passes, Obama wins re-election in 2012.

And what if Prop 19 loses? And there is about a 80% chance it won't pass. Both PPP and SurveyUsa have chimed in with narrow losses for Prop 19. Fox News/Rasmussen has said the same thing. Now I guess we wait for the Field poll. But Prop 19 is basically f'ed. The moral majority has woken up.

[King]

Right now there's an 80% chance Obama doesn't win reelection. So that sounds about right

[Sbane]

Indeed. Screw the economic conditions in 2012, the race for president will be decided next week.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade gives Prop 19 a 27.5% chance of passing and Obama 60% chance of reelection.

[King]

InTrade gives Prop 19 a 27.5% chance of passing and Obama 60% chance of reelection.

Prop 19 is the butterfly flapping its wing off the African coast that creates the breezes that shapes the gust that forms the current that creates the hurricane that drowns New Orleans.