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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania  (Read 36202 times)
muon2
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« on: October 16, 2010, 09:51:01 pm »

It looks like PA may end up with GOP control of the map, so I looked at how well the GOP could do after the reduction to 18 districts.

Edit: There is some additional discussion at this thread which switched quickly from polling to maps.

I drew districts to be within 10 persons of the ideal and there are two majority-black districts (CD 1 and 2). I did not look at incumbent residences so some members may find themselves out of their normal district. I was able to get 12 of the districts such that they would have voted for McCain in 2008.



Here's the detail:

CD 1: 51% black, 84% Obama
CD 2: 51% black, 91% Obama
CD 3: 51% McCain
CD 4: 51% McCain
CD 5: 54% McCain
CD 6: 51% McCain
CD 7: 60% Obama
CD 8: 50% McCain
CD 9: 57% McCain
CD 10: 51% McCain
CD 11: 50% McCain
CD 12: 54% McCain
CD 13: 61% Obama
CD 14: 68% Obama
CD 15: 59% Obama
CD 16: 51% McCain
CD 17: 55% McCain
CD 18: 52% McCain

The western end doesn't require any strange county splits to reach my goal. SE PA is not so pretty, but I think it's actually less pretty than the current map.



« Last Edit: October 25, 2010, 09:56:45 pm by muon2 »Logged


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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2010, 12:12:16 am »
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Somewhere, Perzel is jealous.


That probably screws Dent over and Meehan.
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2010, 12:35:33 am »
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It looks like PA may end up with GOP control of the map, so I looked at how well the GOP could do after the reduction to 18 districts. I drew districts to be within 10 persons of the ideal and there are two majority-black districts (CD 1 and 2). I did not look at incumbent residences so some members may find themselves out of their normal district. I was able to get 12 of the districts such that they would have voted for McCain in 2008.



Here's the detail:

CD 1: 51% black, 84% Obama
CD 2: 51% black, 91% Obama
CD 3: 51% McCain
CD 4: 51% McCain
CD 5: 54% McCain
CD 6: 51% McCain
CD 7: 60% Obama
CD 8: 50% McCain
CD 9: 57% McCain
CD 10: 51% McCain
CD 11: 50% McCain
CD 12: 54% McCain
CD 13: 61% Obama
CD 14: 68% Obama
CD 15: 59% Obama
CD 16: 51% McCain
CD 17: 55% McCain
CD 18: 52% McCain

The western end doesn't require any strange county splits to reach my goal. SE PA is not so pretty, but I think it's actually less pretty than the current map.





I dont think Republicans would draw a map to make it almost impossible for Dent or Meehan to win.   They would also be making Altmire much safer, but that is something they will probably have to do.  

Also, Tim Holden would likely run in the new PA-11 and win based on his strength in Schuylkill county and the fact that the other counties in the district are Democratic leaning.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2010, 01:06:50 am by Mr.Phips »Logged
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2010, 06:35:33 am »






I dont think Republicans would draw a map to make it almost impossible for Dent or Meehan to win.   They would also be making Altmire much safer, but that is something they will probably have to do.  

Also, Tim Holden would likely run in the new PA-11 and win based on his strength in Schuylkill county and the fact that the other counties in the district are Democratic leaning.
[/quote]

The area probably hinges on Dent's district. The half of Lehigh with Dent could be attached to the Buck and Montco parts shown as CD 8 to make an R-leaning district, or Lehigh could be attached to parts of Berks and Schuylkill to bring the numbers up. In either case Northampton would have to be separated or the district stays D. Perhaps the D part could connect to Kanjorski's area in Luzerne.
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2010, 09:23:21 pm »
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I dont think Republicans would draw a map to make it almost impossible for Dent or Meehan to win.   They would also be making Altmire much safer, but that is something they will probably have to do.  

Also, Tim Holden would likely run in the new PA-11 and win based on his strength in Schuylkill county and the fact that the other counties in the district are Democratic leaning.

The area probably hinges on Dent's district. The half of Lehigh with Dent could be attached to the Buck and Montco parts shown as CD 8 to make an R-leaning district, or Lehigh could be attached to parts of Berks and Schuylkill to bring the numbers up. In either case Northampton would have to be separated or the district stays D. Perhaps the D part could connect to Kanjorski's area in Luzerne.
[/quote]

Holden would almost certainly beat Dent in the district you drew.  He typically rolls up giant margins in Schuylkill county and Dent is only known in the Lehigh portion.
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2010, 09:55:01 pm »
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It looks like PA may end up with GOP control of the map, so I looked at how well the GOP could do after the reduction to 18 districts. I drew districts to be within 10 persons of the ideal and there are two majority-black districts (CD 1 and 2). I did not look at incumbent residences so some members may find themselves out of their normal district. I was able to get 12 of the districts such that they would have voted for McCain in 2008.



Here's the detail:

CD 1: 51% black, 84% Obama
CD 2: 51% black, 91% Obama
CD 3: 51% McCain
CD 4: 51% McCain
CD 5: 54% McCain
CD 6: 51% McCain
CD 7: 60% Obama
CD 8: 50% McCain
CD 9: 57% McCain
CD 10: 51% McCain
CD 11: 50% McCain
CD 12: 54% McCain
CD 13: 61% Obama
CD 14: 68% Obama
CD 15: 59% Obama
CD 16: 51% McCain
CD 17: 55% McCain
CD 18: 52% McCain

The western end doesn't require any strange county splits to reach my goal. SE PA is not so pretty, but I think it's actually less pretty than the current map.



So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2010, 10:29:06 pm »
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It looks like PA may end up with GOP control of the map, so I looked at how well the GOP could do after the reduction to 18 districts. I drew districts to be within 10 persons of the ideal and there are two majority-black districts (CD 1 and 2). I did not look at incumbent residences so some members may find themselves out of their normal district. I was able to get 12 of the districts such that they would have voted for McCain in 2008.



Here's the detail:

CD 1: 51% black, 84% Obama
CD 2: 51% black, 91% Obama
CD 3: 51% McCain
CD 4: 51% McCain
CD 5: 54% McCain
CD 6: 51% McCain
CD 7: 60% Obama
CD 8: 50% McCain
CD 9: 57% McCain
CD 10: 51% McCain
CD 11: 50% McCain
CD 12: 54% McCain
CD 13: 61% Obama
CD 14: 68% Obama
CD 15: 59% Obama
CD 16: 51% McCain
CD 17: 55% McCain
CD 18: 52% McCain

The western end doesn't require any strange county splits to reach my goal. SE PA is not so pretty, but I think it's actually less pretty than the current map.



So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Didn't I say Perzel was jealous.

Can ask you experts a question? When I play around with the app, the partisan data for the entire distirct I draw becomes unreadable as the number of minorities is increased (the partisan data is shooved off the end of the info bar with all the district's demographic numbers). Expanding the page doesn't fix it either. How can I fix this?
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2010, 11:14:04 pm »
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So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Well, to be honest, after drawing the two African-American Majority districts around Philly, the state becomes 51-48 Obama.  Throw in a Pittsburgh District and a suburban Philly one and it becomes 48-51 Obama.  You could theoretically draw a 14-4 map
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2010, 11:22:00 pm »
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So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Well, to be honest, after drawing the two African-American Majority districts around Philly, the state becomes 51-48 Obama.  Throw in a Pittsburgh District and a suburban Philly one and it becomes 48-51 Obama.  You could theoretically draw a 14-4 map

There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden. 
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2010, 12:08:46 am »
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So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Well, to be honest, after drawing the two African-American Majority districts around Philly, the state becomes 51-48 Obama.  Throw in a Pittsburgh District and a suburban Philly one and it becomes 48-51 Obama.  You could theoretically draw a 14-4 map

There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden. 

I said Theoretically (involving Pittsburgh to Scranton districts).  My point was that Democrats are highly concentrated in Pennsylvania, so it's much easier to draw maps that favor them than maps that favor the Democrats.
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2010, 01:22:53 pm »
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Not only would Altmire and Holden be pretty safe in that map, Carney shouldn't have much trouble winning the 10th there even if he does this year. Kanjorski probably goes down this year but that idiot mayor who'll beat him would likely lose to Tim Holden as mentioned. 12 wouldn't be entirely unwinnable either (Critz could move there and run against Murphy), and Dent might have trouble in the 15th. Ironically this Republican gerrymander could result in 3 Republican districts in NE PA going to 3 Democratic districts.
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2010, 08:59:35 pm »

Not only would Altmire and Holden be pretty safe in that map, Carney shouldn't have much trouble winning the 10th there even if he does this year. Kanjorski probably goes down this year but that idiot mayor who'll beat him would likely lose to Tim Holden as mentioned. 12 wouldn't be entirely unwinnable either (Critz could move there and run against Murphy), and Dent might have trouble in the 15th. Ironically this Republican gerrymander could result in 3 Republican districts in NE PA going to 3 Democratic districts.

Obviously there are always some secure incumbents who could hold just about any seat. Given that 2008 was as good a vote as the Dems have seen in a generation, how GOP must a PA seat be to elect one in an open seat and against an incumbent.

I expect I'll revise the map after I see which members might be subject to special treatment. BTW, no one has yet opined as to how Dent would want to strengthen his district. I would think that losing all or part of Northampton would be desirable, but which way would he prefer to go to replace population lost?
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2010, 09:44:38 pm »
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Not only would Altmire and Holden be pretty safe in that map, Carney shouldn't have much trouble winning the 10th there even if he does this year. Kanjorski probably goes down this year but that idiot mayor who'll beat him would likely lose to Tim Holden as mentioned. 12 wouldn't be entirely unwinnable either (Critz could move there and run against Murphy), and Dent might have trouble in the 15th. Ironically this Republican gerrymander could result in 3 Republican districts in NE PA going to 3 Democratic districts.

Obviously there are always some secure incumbents who could hold just about any seat. Given that 2008 was as good a vote as the Dems have seen in a generation, how GOP must a PA seat be to elect one in an open seat and against an incumbent.

I expect I'll revise the map after I see which members might be subject to special treatment. BTW, no one has yet opined as to how Dent would want to strengthen his district. I would think that losing all or part of Northampton would be desirable, but which way would he prefer to go to replace population lost?

Dent would probably want Republican parts of Berks or Republican upper Bucks but doing that would make PA-08 very difficult for any Republican to win.
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2010, 10:46:09 pm »

Not only would Altmire and Holden be pretty safe in that map, Carney shouldn't have much trouble winning the 10th there even if he does this year. Kanjorski probably goes down this year but that idiot mayor who'll beat him would likely lose to Tim Holden as mentioned. 12 wouldn't be entirely unwinnable either (Critz could move there and run against Murphy), and Dent might have trouble in the 15th. Ironically this Republican gerrymander could result in 3 Republican districts in NE PA going to 3 Democratic districts.

Obviously there are always some secure incumbents who could hold just about any seat. Given that 2008 was as good a vote as the Dems have seen in a generation, how GOP must a PA seat be to elect one in an open seat and against an incumbent.

I expect I'll revise the map after I see which members might be subject to special treatment. BTW, no one has yet opined as to how Dent would want to strengthen his district. I would think that losing all or part of Northampton would be desirable, but which way would he prefer to go to replace population lost?

Dent would probably want Republican parts of Berks or Republican upper Bucks but doing that would make PA-08 very difficult for any Republican to win.

So why not move him into a new 8 that combines upper Bucks with Lehigh? Put lower Bucks with CD 13 as my map suggests. That would leave a heavy Dem Northampton to Wilkes-Barre district.
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2010, 11:06:10 pm »
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Not only would Altmire and Holden be pretty safe in that map, Carney shouldn't have much trouble winning the 10th there even if he does this year. Kanjorski probably goes down this year but that idiot mayor who'll beat him would likely lose to Tim Holden as mentioned. 12 wouldn't be entirely unwinnable either (Critz could move there and run against Murphy), and Dent might have trouble in the 15th. Ironically this Republican gerrymander could result in 3 Republican districts in NE PA going to 3 Democratic districts.

Obviously there are always some secure incumbents who could hold just about any seat. Given that 2008 was as good a vote as the Dems have seen in a generation, how GOP must a PA seat be to elect one in an open seat and against an incumbent.

I expect I'll revise the map after I see which members might be subject to special treatment. BTW, no one has yet opined as to how Dent would want to strengthen his district. I would think that losing all or part of Northampton would be desirable, but which way would he prefer to go to replace population lost?

Dent would probably want Republican parts of Berks or Republican upper Bucks but doing that would make PA-08 very difficult for any Republican to win.

So why not move him into a new 8 that combines upper Bucks with Lehigh? Put lower Bucks with CD 13 as my map suggests. That would leave a heavy Dem Northampton to Wilkes-Barre district.

And put him into a primary with Mike Fitzpatrick?
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2010, 07:15:31 pm »

Not only would Altmire and Holden be pretty safe in that map, Carney shouldn't have much trouble winning the 10th there even if he does this year. Kanjorski probably goes down this year but that idiot mayor who'll beat him would likely lose to Tim Holden as mentioned. 12 wouldn't be entirely unwinnable either (Critz could move there and run against Murphy), and Dent might have trouble in the 15th. Ironically this Republican gerrymander could result in 3 Republican districts in NE PA going to 3 Democratic districts.

Obviously there are always some secure incumbents who could hold just about any seat. Given that 2008 was as good a vote as the Dems have seen in a generation, how GOP must a PA seat be to elect one in an open seat and against an incumbent.

I expect I'll revise the map after I see which members might be subject to special treatment. BTW, no one has yet opined as to how Dent would want to strengthen his district. I would think that losing all or part of Northampton would be desirable, but which way would he prefer to go to replace population lost?

Dent would probably want Republican parts of Berks or Republican upper Bucks but doing that would make PA-08 very difficult for any Republican to win.

So why not move him into a new 8 that combines upper Bucks with Lehigh? Put lower Bucks with CD 13 as my map suggests. That would leave a heavy Dem Northampton to Wilkes-Barre district.

And put him into a primary with Mike Fitzpatrick?

Ah yes. That's why I made my earlier statement about my next map coming after the election. I think that Fitzpatrick actually ended up in my CD 13, but barely, since he lives in Levitttown.

The big problem for the GOP will be if they win throughout eastern PA. As noted, the best maps for them leave Dems concentrated in the VRA districts in Philly, two suburban districts (7 and 13 on my map, and one other in NE PA. The current 538 ratings have only 4 Dems surviving in the east (1, 2, 13, 17). I assume that a district that voted for McCain in 2008 would be enough to hold an incumbent in 2012, but a soft Obama win (less than 53%) would be a swing district. To protect all incumbents in that case will require that at least one of the the R districts I drew will have to be watered down into a swing district so that one of the 5 D districts also becomes a swing district. It might require two R districts to shift more to swing.
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2010, 08:28:22 pm »
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As I said, I had trouble reading the party data when the districts got diverse, probably a browser error.

I wiped out the 12th. Not sure if Critz ended up in Murphy or Shuster's district but I would want him to be in the district with Shuster. I stretched both PA 10 and PA 11 Westward in the wake of Thompson's which shifts all the way down to Westmoreland county now. Pitts, Platts, and Shuster shift Westward slightly as well. Shuster includes Northern Cambria, including Johnstown. The new Tim Murphy seat includes all of Washington and Green Counties, northern Alleghenny, The Western third of Westmoreland, and a sliver of Fayette (the rest is in Shuster's). The 10th includes more then half of Tioga, and Lycoming, and all of Union and Snyder. The 11th goes all the way to Southern Northumberland, Columbia and Montour as well as including parts of Schuylkill, Carbon and Monroe. Again, can't read the data but I would assume its more Republican then it is now, not sure if its enough to keep Barletta secure. I did keep Scranton out of the 10th so the 10th shouldn't be much different politically.

If the 12th is the district that is removed, does stretching those two Westward in the wake of that help solve the problem of keeping three GOP seats in NE PA? I hope Barletta votes like Fred Upton. If this worked like I think it did, then keeping the three (should Dent, Barletta and Marino win) isn't as impossible as Mr Phips said it would be. However, as I can't read the cummulatvie partisan data of the completed districts (is that a browser issue, maybe?). I think the 10th has 115,000 Obama Votes and the 11th 135,000 in the map I drew.. That's as much as I can read on them. My new Dent district is 127,000 obama votes.

The Philly districts are messed up. The seventh is probably two Democratic (215,000 Obama votes, and the Bucks district is at 196,000). The Philly area is above my pay grade. Tongue Of course simultaneously trying to gerrymander the state and renumber in and east-west makes it kind of confusing. Wink


Here's the screenshots of the map I made
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2523/pa18districteast.png
http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/7256/pa18districtwest.png
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2010, 08:48:14 pm »
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As I said, I had trouble reading the party data when the districts got diverse, probably a browser error.

I wiped out the 12th. Not sure if Critz ended up in Murphy or Shuster's district but I would want him to be in the district with Shuster. I stretched both PA 10 and PA 11 Westward in the wake of Thompson's which shifts all the way down to Westmoreland county now. Pitts, Platts, and Shuster shift Westward slightly as well. Shuster includes Northern Cambria, including Johnstown. The new Tim Murphy seat includes all of Washington and Green Counties, northern Alleghenny, The Western third of Westmoreland, and a sliver of Fayette (the rest is in Shuster's). The 10th includes more then half of Tioga, and Lycoming, and all of Union and Snyder. The 11th goes all the way to Southern Northumberland, Columbia and Montour as well as including parts of Schuylkill, Carbon and Monroe. Again, can't read the data but I would assume its more Republican then it is now, not sure if its enough to keep Barletta secure. I did keep Scranton out of the 10th so the 10th shouldn't be much different politically.

If the 12th is the district that is removed, does stretching those two Westward in the wake of that help solve the problem of keeping three GOP seats in NE PA? I hope Barletta votes like Fred Upton. If this worked like I think it did, then keeping the three (should Dent, Barletta and Marino win) isn't as impossible as Mr Phips said it would be. However, as I can't read the cummulatvie partisan data of the completed districts (is that a browser issue, maybe?). I think the 10th has 115,000 Obama Votes and the 11th 135,000 in the map I drew.. That's as much as I can read on them. My new Dent district is 127,000 obama votes.

The Philly districts are messed up. The seventh is probably two Democratic (215,000 Obama votes, and the Bucks district is at 196,000). The Philly area is above my pay grade. Tongue Of course simultaneously trying to gerrymander the state and renumber in and east-west makes it kind of confusing. Wink


Here's the screenshots of the map I made
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2523/pa18districteast.png
http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/7256/pa18districtwest.png

The PA-11 you drew would still be about 55%-45% Obama and 51%-49% Kerry, enough to sink Barletta against someone like Pat Casey in 2012.  

Republicans are going to have to conceed a Scranton based district to Democrats unless they want a map where Democrats could potentially gain all three NE seats in the next good Dem year.  

Your PA-15 actual is identical to the district that Republicans destroyed in 2001 to get rid of Democrat Frank Mascara.  It voted for Gore and only barely went for Bush in 2004, although it probably went for McCain by a slightly larger margin.  Critz might just move there and run, since it is historically very Democratic and Murphy isnt well known in the Greene or Fayette county parts(which are represented by Critz as well as parts of Washington county).
« Last Edit: October 19, 2010, 08:57:58 pm by Mr.Phips »Logged
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2010, 10:44:55 pm »
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As I said, I had trouble reading the party data when the districts got diverse, probably a browser error.

I wiped out the 12th. Not sure if Critz ended up in Murphy or Shuster's district but I would want him to be in the district with Shuster. I stretched both PA 10 and PA 11 Westward in the wake of Thompson's which shifts all the way down to Westmoreland county now. Pitts, Platts, and Shuster shift Westward slightly as well. Shuster includes Northern Cambria, including Johnstown. The new Tim Murphy seat includes all of Washington and Green Counties, northern Alleghenny, The Western third of Westmoreland, and a sliver of Fayette (the rest is in Shuster's). The 10th includes more then half of Tioga, and Lycoming, and all of Union and Snyder. The 11th goes all the way to Southern Northumberland, Columbia and Montour as well as including parts of Schuylkill, Carbon and Monroe. Again, can't read the data but I would assume its more Republican then it is now, not sure if its enough to keep Barletta secure. I did keep Scranton out of the 10th so the 10th shouldn't be much different politically.

If the 12th is the district that is removed, does stretching those two Westward in the wake of that help solve the problem of keeping three GOP seats in NE PA? I hope Barletta votes like Fred Upton. If this worked like I think it did, then keeping the three (should Dent, Barletta and Marino win) isn't as impossible as Mr Phips said it would be. However, as I can't read the cummulatvie partisan data of the completed districts (is that a browser issue, maybe?). I think the 10th has 115,000 Obama Votes and the 11th 135,000 in the map I drew.. That's as much as I can read on them. My new Dent district is 127,000 obama votes.

The Philly districts are messed up. The seventh is probably two Democratic (215,000 Obama votes, and the Bucks district is at 196,000). The Philly area is above my pay grade. Tongue Of course simultaneously trying to gerrymander the state and renumber in and east-west makes it kind of confusing. Wink


Here's the screenshots of the map I made
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2523/pa18districteast.png
http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/7256/pa18districtwest.png

The PA-11 you drew would still be about 55%-45% Obama and 51%-49% Kerry, enough to sink Barletta against someone like Pat Casey in 2012.  

Republicans are going to have to conceed a Scranton based district to Democrats unless they want a map where Democrats could potentially gain all three NE seats in the next good Dem year.  

Your PA-15 actual is identical to the district that Republicans destroyed in 2001 to get rid of Democrat Frank Mascara.  It voted for Gore and only barely went for Bush in 2004, although it probably went for McCain by a slightly larger margin.  Critz might just move there and run, since it is historically very Democratic and Murphy isnt well known in the Greene or Fayette county parts(which are represented by Critz as well as parts of Washington county).

Not really, in reference to all three being lost. Without Scranton, I don't see how PA-10 would be lost if it doesn't include Scranton (and Marino wins this year). It took a scandal and a wave to defeat the last Republican in that seat. Yea Marino might not be the strongest but it would still be a pretty safe seat and I doubt the Dems would even bother to challenge it in that case.

PA-11 is going to be blood bath for quite some time. The goal is not to make Barletta safe but to give him a fighting chance in that district. He can win and that's what matters. But no one is seriously talking about putting him in a McCain seat. I wouldn't want to put Scranton in the tenth. The tenth is a far more Republican district and if Carney wins we have numerous other strong candidates to throw against him in 2012 and would have much better chances then Barletta does without Scranton. Stretching the district westward to make up for population loss, adds several rural and small town areas that Barletta will be very appealing in and it dilutes the Scranton vote. I don't see it being as Democratic as it is now and even if only 1% or 2% more Republican it provides a large potential base for Barletta to rely on.  Dent survives in a Dem district that also narrowly voted for Kerry. If Barletta can't survive in a 50-50 year in that district without destroying a safe GOP seat and making it a swing district and only making his seat a few points more GOP. Then screw him and Let him lose in 2012.

The key to PA-15 I created (which you right, it is basically the old Mascara seat) is that it is getting more Republican. Obama will be atop the ticket in 2012 and I suspect that Critz would have a hard time against Murphy, considering that. Don't forget that Burns was a bad candidate on multiple levels as well, whereas Murphy isn't, as far as I know.

You are going to need to gamble somewhat. The GOP didn't expect Holden to win in 2002, but he did. There is no such thing as a "safe gerrymander". The goal is to minimize risk, but it still has to be taken.

You are also worrying about a bad year, how often do they occur? Very infrequently. So we should just give up on two or three GOPers now in case that occurs in the next decade.  

« Last Edit: October 19, 2010, 10:47:51 pm by Senator North Carolina Yankee »Logged

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2010, 11:23:59 pm »
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As I said, I had trouble reading the party data when the districts got diverse, probably a browser error.

I wiped out the 12th. Not sure if Critz ended up in Murphy or Shuster's district but I would want him to be in the district with Shuster. I stretched both PA 10 and PA 11 Westward in the wake of Thompson's which shifts all the way down to Westmoreland county now. Pitts, Platts, and Shuster shift Westward slightly as well. Shuster includes Northern Cambria, including Johnstown. The new Tim Murphy seat includes all of Washington and Green Counties, northern Alleghenny, The Western third of Westmoreland, and a sliver of Fayette (the rest is in Shuster's). The 10th includes more then half of Tioga, and Lycoming, and all of Union and Snyder. The 11th goes all the way to Southern Northumberland, Columbia and Montour as well as including parts of Schuylkill, Carbon and Monroe. Again, can't read the data but I would assume its more Republican then it is now, not sure if its enough to keep Barletta secure. I did keep Scranton out of the 10th so the 10th shouldn't be much different politically.

If the 12th is the district that is removed, does stretching those two Westward in the wake of that help solve the problem of keeping three GOP seats in NE PA? I hope Barletta votes like Fred Upton. If this worked like I think it did, then keeping the three (should Dent, Barletta and Marino win) isn't as impossible as Mr Phips said it would be. However, as I can't read the cummulatvie partisan data of the completed districts (is that a browser issue, maybe?). I think the 10th has 115,000 Obama Votes and the 11th 135,000 in the map I drew.. That's as much as I can read on them. My new Dent district is 127,000 obama votes.

The Philly districts are messed up. The seventh is probably two Democratic (215,000 Obama votes, and the Bucks district is at 196,000). The Philly area is above my pay grade. Tongue Of course simultaneously trying to gerrymander the state and renumber in and east-west makes it kind of confusing. Wink


Here's the screenshots of the map I made
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2523/pa18districteast.png
http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/7256/pa18districtwest.png

The PA-11 you drew would still be about 55%-45% Obama and 51%-49% Kerry, enough to sink Barletta against someone like Pat Casey in 2012.  

Republicans are going to have to conceed a Scranton based district to Democrats unless they want a map where Democrats could potentially gain all three NE seats in the next good Dem year.  

Your PA-15 actual is identical to the district that Republicans destroyed in 2001 to get rid of Democrat Frank Mascara.  It voted for Gore and only barely went for Bush in 2004, although it probably went for McCain by a slightly larger margin.  Critz might just move there and run, since it is historically very Democratic and Murphy isnt well known in the Greene or Fayette county parts(which are represented by Critz as well as parts of Washington county).

Not really, in reference to all three being lost. Without Scranton, I don't see how PA-10 would be lost if it doesn't include Scranton (and Marino wins this year). It took a scandal and a wave to defeat the last Republican in that seat. Yea Marino might not be the strongest but it would still be a pretty safe seat and I doubt the Dems would even bother to challenge it in that case.

PA-11 is going to be blood bath for quite some time. The goal is not to make Barletta safe but to give him a fighting chance in that district. He can win and that's what matters. But no one is seriously talking about putting him in a McCain seat. I wouldn't want to put Scranton in the tenth. The tenth is a far more Republican district and if Carney wins we have numerous other strong candidates to throw against him in 2012 and would have much better chances then Barletta does without Scranton. Stretching the district westward to make up for population loss, adds several rural and small town areas that Barletta will be very appealing in and it dilutes the Scranton vote. I don't see it being as Democratic as it is now and even if only 1% or 2% more Republican it provides a large potential base for Barletta to rely on.  Dent survives in a Dem district that also narrowly voted for Kerry. If Barletta can't survive in a 50-50 year in that district without destroying a safe GOP seat and making it a swing district and only making his seat a few points more GOP. Then screw him and Let him lose in 2012.

The key to PA-15 I created (which you right, it is basically the old Mascara seat) is that it is getting more Republican. Obama will be atop the ticket in 2012 and I suspect that Critz would have a hard time against Murphy, considering that. Don't forget that Burns was a bad candidate on multiple levels as well, whereas Murphy isn't, as far as I know.

You are going to need to gamble somewhat. The GOP didn't expect Holden to win in 2002, but he did. There is no such thing as a "safe gerrymander". The goal is to minimize risk, but it still has to be taken.

You are also worrying about a bad year, how often do they occur? Very infrequently. So we should just give up on two or three GOPers now in case that occurs in the next decade.  



Bad years occur far more frequently than they used to with very polarized voting.  I can see the House shifting back and forth every two years this decade.  We've had three bad years for parties in a row starting in 2006.  2012 will probably be a good Democratic year if Obama gets reelected.  
« Last Edit: October 19, 2010, 11:25:32 pm by Mr.Phips »Logged
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2010, 12:02:49 am »
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If it makes it easier, Fitzpatrick lives in Middletown Twp (one of the 4 townships comprising the postal area, thats all it is, known as levittown)....You could split that off and leave the rest of Levittown (which is more democratic than the middletown part) in the other district.
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2010, 12:34:02 am »
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If it makes it easier, Fitzpatrick lives in Middletown Twp (one of the 4 townships comprising the postal area, thats all it is, known as levittown)....You could split that off and leave the rest of Levittown (which is more democratic than the middletown part) in the other district.

An upper Bucks, upper Montgomery, Berks, and Chester district would be a good one for Fitzpatrick.  It would almost certainly save him from a repeat Murphy challenge in 2012. 
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2010, 11:53:37 pm »

If it makes it easier, Fitzpatrick lives in Middletown Twp (one of the 4 townships comprising the postal area, thats all it is, known as levittown)....You could split that off and leave the rest of Levittown (which is more democratic than the middletown part) in the other district.

An upper Bucks, upper Montgomery, Berks, and Chester district would be a good one for Fitzpatrick.  It would almost certainly save him from a repeat Murphy challenge in 2012. 

So basically what I drew on my map. I note that northern Chester may have to all be in CD 6 to suit Gerlach, however, which would require more of Berks for CD 8.
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2010, 10:28:48 pm »

So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Well, to be honest, after drawing the two African-American Majority districts around Philly, the state becomes 51-48 Obama.  Throw in a Pittsburgh District and a suburban Philly one and it becomes 48-51 Obama.  You could theoretically draw a 14-4 map

There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden. 

I think I have figured out what to do about the Holden district if the GOP runs the map and all seats that are projected for the GOP do go that way. Platts can add Harrisburg and points west from CD 17 and be called CD 17 (since 19 has to go away anyway). Gerlach takes Lebanon and southern Dauphin, while CD8 (presumably Fitzpatrick) takes northern Berks from CD 17.  Dent adds most of Schuylkill and northern Dauphin which shifts CD 15 about 2% more R though it still would have voted Obama. Central Schuylkill which has the D-leaning areas including Holden's home is attached to CD 5, but it remains a strong R district (54% McCain). There would be a new D-district (new CD 12) primarily in Montco that Holden could move to and maintain a place in Congress.



(yeah, I said I would wait, but I was curious to solve the puzzle Tongue)

CD 1: 85% Obama, 51% black
CD 2: 91% Obama, 51% black
CD 3: 52% McCain
CD 4: 51% McCain
CD 5: 54% McCain
CD 6: 50% McCain
CD 7: 52% McCain
CD 8: 50% McCain
CD 9: 55% McCain
CD 10: 49.5% McCain (49.3% Obama)
CD 11: 51% Obama (56% in 2008)
CD 12: 61% Obama
CD 13: 60% Obama
CD 14: 68% Obama
CD 15: 53% Obama (55% in 2008)
CD 16: 52% McCain
CD 17: 53% McCain
CD 18: 56% McCain
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2010, 11:24:10 pm »
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So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Well, to be honest, after drawing the two African-American Majority districts around Philly, the state becomes 51-48 Obama.  Throw in a Pittsburgh District and a suburban Philly one and it becomes 48-51 Obama.  You could theoretically draw a 14-4 map

There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden.  

I think I have figured out what to do about the Holden district if the GOP runs the map and all seats that are projected for the GOP do go that way. Platts can add Harrisburg and points west from CD 17 and be called CD 17 (since 19 has to go away anyway). Gerlach takes Lebanon and southern Dauphin, while CD8 (presumably Fitzpatrick) takes northern Berks from CD 17.  Dent adds most of Schuylkill and northern Dauphin which shifts CD 15 about 2% more R though it still would have voted Obama. Central Schuylkill which has the D-leaning areas including Holden's home is attached to CD 5, but it remains a strong R district (54% McCain). There would be a new D-district (new CD 12) primarily in Montco that Holden could move to and maintain a place in Congress.



(yeah, I said I would wait, but I was curious to solve the puzzle Tongue)

CD 1: 85% Obama, 51% black
CD 2: 91% Obama, 51% black
CD 3: 52% McCain
CD 4: 51% McCain
CD 5: 54% McCain
CD 6: 50% McCain
CD 7: 52% McCain
CD 8: 50% McCain
CD 9: 55% McCain
CD 10: 49.5% McCain (49.3% Obama)
CD 11: 51% Obama (56% in 2008)
CD 12: 61% Obama
CD 13: 60% Obama
CD 14: 68% Obama
CD 15: 53% Obama (55% in 2008)
CD 16: 52% McCain
CD 17: 53% McCain
CD 18: 56% McCain


Again, Holden would run against Dent and likely win in 2012.  He would swamp Dent in the Schuylkill and Dauphin portions and probably hold Dent to 55% or less everywhere else.   And you are cutting PA-10 and PA-11 awfully thin for Republicans. 
« Last Edit: October 24, 2010, 11:26:25 pm by Mr.Phips »Logged
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