US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Torie]

Twitter is full of people saying that Kennett Square in PA-16 is not contiguous with the rest of the district per the map. This has to be an image misrepresentation and not true, right?

Yes, in the preliminary map, it is not contiguous. That is because the map follows existing precincts. PA-07 needed to sneak south of Kennett Square to get into Lancaster the way the map was drawn, and this precinct surrounding Kennett appends PA's border with Delaware. So that precinct will have to be redrawn. The territory that needs to be filled in contains almost no people, so it is no big deal. A fair number of precincts will have to be redrawn to get exactly equal population numbers in any event.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Joe Pitts' refusal to move is still screwing them over? LOL.

[muon2]

A couple of quick observations:

The mappers went out of their way to avoid 3-way splits in the smaller counties. Other than Allegheny and Westmoreland, I didn't see any others in the north or west.

They want to eliminate Altmire and would rather face Critz. District 19 is eliminated and it is now 4. Changing numbers is a way to put an incumbent off balance, and Altmire comes up with a new one.

[BigSkyBob]

Well... I could see some potential overreach by the GOP and may eventually get burned once again.  Let's hope.

If the GOP loses seats after this map it is because their candidates received fewer votes, and, not because of this map.

[Torie]

PA 06, 07, 08 and 16 have been drawn. The population for PA-07 is spot on, as is PA-08, but for inexplicable reasons for the moment, PA-06 is short 2,500 people, and PA-16 short 4,500.  All four have lower GOP PVI's than my projected map (understandable for PA-16 which takes Reading rather than PA-17, but no excuses for PA-06 and PA-07). The Lancaster legislators' stonewall hurt a bit.  PA-07 only got 32,000 residents out of Lancaster. The cherry picking of precincts in Montco, Chester, and Delaware was also a bit flawed in my opinion. Maybe 40 or 50 basis points were left on the table, maybe a tad more, due to that. PA-08 is down by 20 Pubbie basis points from my projected map.

I must say that PA-07 is indeed a horrendous monstrosity - just awful. A fair amount of that is again due to the Lancaster County stonewall, forcing PA-07 into Berks, and PA-16 in turn cutting more deeply into Chester with that ludicrous prong to the north in Chester.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How can this sort of thing be legal? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know why. This is not a real question.

[muon2]

PA 06, 07, 08 and 16 have been drawn. The population for PA-07 is spot on, as is PA-08, but for inexplicable reasons for the moment, PA-06 is short 2,500 people, and PA-16 short 4,500.  All four have lower GOP PVI's than my projected map (understandable for PA-16 which takes Reading rather than PA-17, but no excuses for PA-06 and PA-07). The Lancaster legislators' stonewall hurt a bit.  PA-07 only got 32,000 residents out of Lancaster. The cherry picking of precincts in Montco, Chester, and Delaware was also a bit flawed in my opinion. Maybe 40 or 50 basis points were left on the table, maybe a tad more, due to that. PA-08 is down by 20 Pubbie basis points from my projected map.

I must say that PA-07 is indeed a horrendous monstrosity - just awful. A fair amount of that is again due to the Lancaster County stonewall, forcing PA-07 into Berks, and PA-16 in turn cutting more deeply into Chester with that ludicrous prong to the north in Chester.

MD-03 has a perfect partner in PA-07 as a poster child for redistricting reform. It looks like they were more concerned with holding PA-07 than with PA-06, based on the 2% boost it gets in comparison in your chart. Maybe there are other electoral factors at the local level.

[Napoleon]

PA 06, 07, 08 and 16 have been drawn. The population for PA-07 is spot on, as is PA-08, but for inexplicable reasons for the moment, PA-06 is short 2,500 people, and PA-16 short 4,500.  All four have lower GOP PVI's than my projected map (understandable for PA-16 which takes Reading rather than PA-17, but no excuses for PA-06 and PA-07). The Lancaster legislators' stonewall hurt a bit.  PA-07 only got 32,000 residents out of Lancaster. The cherry picking of precincts in Montco, Chester, and Delaware was also a bit flawed in my opinion. Maybe 40 or 50 basis points were left on the table, maybe a tad more, due to that. PA-08 is down by 20 Pubbie basis points from my projected map.

I must say that PA-07 is indeed a horrendous monstrosity - just awful. A fair amount of that is again due to the Lancaster County stonewall, forcing PA-07 into Berks, and PA-16 in turn cutting more deeply into Chester with that ludicrous prong to the north in Chester.

MD-03 has a perfect partner in PA-07 as a poster child for redistricting reform. It looks like they were more concerned with holding PA-07 than with PA-06, based on the 2% boost it gets in comparison in your chart. Maybe there are other electoral factors at the local level.

PA-6 held steady while 7 and 8 fell.

[krazen1211]

MD-03 has a perfect partner in PA-07 as a poster child for redistricting reform. It looks like they were more concerned with holding PA-07 than with PA-06, based on the 2% boost it gets in comparison in your chart. Maybe there are other electoral factors at the local level.

A couple. Joe Sestak and making sure that PA-07 has a GOP registration advantage. Allegedly all of the desired districts do now except 12 and 18.

[Miles]

Well... I could see some potential overreach by the GOP and may eventually get burned once again.  Let's hope.

If the GOP loses seats after this map it is because their candidates received fewer votes, and, not because of this map.

lol

[Keystone Phil]

I'm apparently in the 1st according to the newly released legal definitions. 

[Miles]

I was surprised they kept Schuykill whole; all of Torie's maps had it split.

[Torie]

PA 06, 07, 08 and 16 have been drawn. The population for PA-07 is spot on, as is PA-08, but for inexplicable reasons for the moment, PA-06 is short 2,500 people, and PA-16 short 4,500.  All four have lower GOP PVI's than my projected map (understandable for PA-16 which takes Reading rather than PA-17, but no excuses for PA-06 and PA-07). The Lancaster legislators' stonewall hurt a bit.  PA-07 only got 32,000 residents out of Lancaster. The cherry picking of precincts in Montco, Chester, and Delaware was also a bit flawed in my opinion. Maybe 40 or 50 basis points were left on the table, maybe a tad more, due to that. PA-08 is down by 20 Pubbie basis points from my projected map.

I must say that PA-07 is indeed a horrendous monstrosity - just awful. A fair amount of that is again due to the Lancaster County stonewall, forcing PA-07 into Berks, and PA-16 in turn cutting more deeply into Chester with that ludicrous prong to the north in Chester.

MD-03 has a perfect partner in PA-07 as a poster child for redistricting reform. It looks like they were more concerned with holding PA-07 than with PA-06, based on the 2% boost it gets in comparison in your chart. Maybe there are other electoral factors at the local level.

As long as Gerlach remains the incumbent in PA-06, the seat will be held. He way, way outperforms. Meehan in PA-07 is a much weaker sister, both in tenure and in mental horsepower in general. Also, the swing to Obama was more pronounced in PA-06. As redrawn, the GOP/Dem numbers on the Bradlee utility are 51.9% GOP for PA-07, and 51.5% for PA-07, however that number is defined. Probably the real answer for PA is between the "generic" GOP performance, and the McCain numbers, for federal House seats

[Torie]

I was surprised they kept Schuykill whole; all of Torie's maps had it split.

The GOP lives in terror of Holden is the only explanation. So many 60%-70% McCain precincts have gone to waste. Sad.

[Torie]

A couple of quick observations:

The mappers went out of their way to avoid 3-way splits in the smaller counties. Other than Allegheny and Westmoreland, I didn't see any others in the north or west.

They want to eliminate Altmire and would rather face Critz. District 19 is eliminated and it is now 4. Changing numbers is a way to put an incumbent off balance, and Altmire comes up with a new one.

Dauphin was tri-chopped. PA-04's (the old PA-19) destiny was to take the City of Harrisburg. The imperatives of the gerrymander literally demanded that, and the population numbers worked well to do it. That part of the map I guessed right.

[muon2]

I was surprised they kept Schuykill whole; all of Torie's maps had it split.

The GOP lives in terror of Holden is the only explanation. So many 60%-70% McCain precincts have gone to waste. Sad.

Or are they protecting him from a primary by maximizing his base? They may have decided some other Dem from that new district would be far worse than Holden.

[Keystone Phil]

I was surprised they kept Schuykill whole; all of Torie's maps had it split.

The GOP lives in terror of Holden is the only explanation. So many 60%-70% McCain precincts have gone to waste. Sad.

Or are they protecting him from a primary by maximizing his base? They may have decided some other Dem from that new district would be far worse than Holden.

I think they gave it to him to prevent Gerlach or Dent from having to pick it up but there was talk of a primary so this helps him in that area, too.

[Torie]

I was surprised they kept Schuykill whole; all of Torie's maps had it split.

The GOP lives in terror of Holden is the only explanation. So many 60%-70% McCain precincts have gone to waste. Sad.

Or are they protecting him from a primary by maximizing his base? They may have decided some other Dem from that new district would be far worse than Holden.

I think they gave it to him to prevent Gerlach or Dent from having to pick it up but there was talk of a primary so this helps him in that area, too.

Yes, that is probably the reason, as you can see below. PA-17 just isn't that Dem. And maybe if Holden retires, the GOP hopes to get lucky, and have a redux of a Barletta-Kanjorski scenario. The area is probably trending a bit GOP anyway (outside Scranton which isn't). The other big news of course, is that the GOP chose to Pub up PA-15 much more than the published leaks, and Northhampton is stripped of a big slug of Dems in the Bethlehem suburbs in addition to Easton; the CD gets in exchange, not only a piece of Berks, but also the most GOP parts of Lebanon and Dauphin.  Maybe Dent told the map drawers that he doesn't plan to hang around in the House for the next decade.

Meanwhile we have trouble, trouble, right here in cartographic city! PA-17 is short by 13,000 people, while PA-11 has 5,400 too many.  I checked and checked the shapes of the CD, and just can't find any errors. I do see now that the 3 Dem pack CD's in the Philly area have 7,000 too many people (I summed the population deviations of the three CD's), which matches the 7,000 shortfall of PA-06 and PA-16, but having checked, and checked, and checked again, I just don't see any errors in the shape of my CD's as compared to the map. Everything matches exactly as far as I can see.

If anyone can identify the errors in my map, in particular PA-17, their prize will be to set my signature for a month (assuming that it is reasonably decorous of course; you don't want me to get my first infraction point do you?  )  Did the Pub operative who drew the map make some errors, or did I, that is the question.

So without further ado, here is the map for Eastern PA (with how the 3 Dem pack CD's, PA-01, 02 and 13 not done yet as to how they split their interior territory between them). I did a blowup of PA-17's perimeter so one can better match the published map.  If there is an error, it presumably is around Scranton or Wilkes-Barre. Again, I just don't see it, but maybe my old eyes are failing or something.

[muon2]

I was surprised they kept Schuykill whole; all of Torie's maps had it split.

The GOP lives in terror of Holden is the only explanation. So many 60%-70% McCain precincts have gone to waste. Sad.

Or are they protecting him from a primary by maximizing his base? They may have decided some other Dem from that new district would be far worse than Holden.

I think they gave it to him to prevent Gerlach or Dent from having to pick it up but there was talk of a primary so this helps him in that area, too.

Yes, that is probably the reason, as you can see below. PA-17 just isn't that Dem. And maybe if Holden retires, the GOP hopes to get lucky, and have a redux of a Barletta-Kanjorski scenario. The area is probably trending a bit GOP anyway (outside Scranton which isn't). The other big news of course, is that the GOP chose to Pub up PA-15 much more than the published leaks, and Northhampton is stripped of a big slug of Dems in the Bethlehem suburbs in addition to Easton; the CD gets in exchange, not only a piece of Berks, but also the most GOP parts of Lebanon and Dauphin.  Maybe Dent told the map drawers that he doesn't plan to hang around in the House for the next decade.

Meanwhile we have trouble, trouble, right here in cartographic city! PA-17 is short by 13,000 people, while PA-11 has 5,400 too many.  I checked and checked the shapes of the CD, and just can't find any errors. I do see now that the 3 Dem pack CD's in the Philly area have 7,000 too many people (I summed the population deviations of the three CD's), which matches the 7,000 shortfall of PA-06 and PA-16, but having checked, and checked, and checked again, I just don't see any errors in the shape of my CD's as compared to the map. Everything matches exactly as far as I can see.

If anyone can identify the errors in my map, in particular PA-17, their prize will be to set my signature for a month (assuming that it is reasonably decorous of course; you don't want me to get my first infraction point do you?  )  Did the Pub operative who drew the map make some errors, or did I, that is the question.

So without further ado, here is the map for Eastern PA (with how the 3 Dem pack CD's, PA-01, 02 and 13 not done yet as to how they split their interior territory between them). I did a blowup of PA-17's perimeter so one can better match the published map.  If there is an error, it presumably is around Scranton or Wilkes-Barre. Again, I just don't see it, but maybe my old eyes are failing or something.

The PA GOP regional map does not agree with the statewide map. Compare Monroe in both. In the statewide map Stroudsburg and East Stroudsburg are entirely within PA-10 connected by a path through Stroud Twp. That area is in PA 17 in the regional map. The regional maps also use a different color scheme, which suggests they are from a different version. Since you followed the regional line in Monroe, I think you will find most of your lost population for PA 17 there.

edit: There's also a small piece to pick up Nazareth that is missing in your PA-17. Also, I see 17 stretch all the way up to Carbondale in the statewide map.

[Keystone Phil]

Just to prove that this nonsense cuts both ways, the Dems put out their own gerrymandered map - http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/

[Torie]

Muon2, my versions of the statewide map, and regional map, appear to match. Plus, PA-10 is already short a couple of thousand persons, so it has no surplus (unless it "lost" some territory per somebody's error in turn).  

Here is the statewide map:  

And the regional map:

And  a blowup of my map, which includes in PA-17 in Monroe everything that you described it seems:

So color me confused.  

[muon2]

Muon2, my versions of the statewide map, and regional map, appear to match. Plus, PA-10 is already short a couple of thousand persons, so it has no surplus (unless it "lost" some territory per somebody's error in turn).  

Here is the statewide map:  

And the regional map:

And  a blowup of my map, which includes in PA-17 in Monroe everything that you described it seems:

So color me confused.  

Click on your statewide link. It isn't the same as your pic. I think it was changed overnight! Probably the regional map hasn't been updated yet.

[minionofmidas]

I guess they drew that 12th with a Christiana vs Critz race in mind. Lolbarletta, loldent. That 7th district is of course Maryland-style outerworldish.

[bgwah]

How can this sort of thing be legal? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know why. This is not a real question.

I'm surprised there isn't more public outrage about gerrymandering. I'm normally annoyed I live in an initiative state, though I suppose this is one benefit.

[minionofmidas]

What inspired that Dem map? The notion that since the 19th district is lost, the current 19th must be chopped and all other incumbents protected?