US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

What inspired that Dem map? The notion that since the 19th district is lost, the current 19th must be chopped and all other incumbents protected?

I want to know what the hell they were thinking by releasing it. Now they can't claim any moral high ground on gerrymandering.

I guess they drew that 12th with a Christiana vs Critz race in mind.

They did though Turzai is also in the district and has left the door open to a bid "some time down the road." If he wants it, Christiana stays out. But if he's passing this time around and hoping Christiana wins but leaves (maybe for higher office), he could be in for a rude awakening. Christiana might not see any opportunities for higher office when Turzai wants to run (though if Christiana is as impressive as he has been in the State House, people will definitely approach him about running statewide. I even mentioned him for the U.S. Senate next year but he isn't old enough).

[krazen1211]

Sean Trende got the actual percentages. I was close with my guesswork.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/14/in_pennsylvania_the_gerrymander_of_the_decade_112404.html

[krazen1211]

Odd Muon2.  Anyhow,  my map has the version that gave PA-17 more territory, and it is still 13,000 short.

Boy, PA-05 was shaved to the bone, almost down to dangerous levels. I would not have done that. It should have switched some territory with PA-10.  What in the world were the Pubs thinking? I will put up the finished map in this reply later with the data (except for the 3 Philly Dem pack CD's, which I will defer until in the mood, since it really doesn't matter of course).  I must say Shuster (PA-09) did do his job in the end. He shipped a lot of pubs off to PA-18 (by sucking up some Dem precincts in Westmorland), and some Pubs to PA-12, since he was generous in giving up to PA-12 a bigger slice of hyper Pubbie Somerset County.

The Dem population in PA-05 is extremely incoherent; part of them are state college students and parts are working class whites based around Erie. It's not really in danger in any normal year.

[muon2]

Odd Muon2.  Anyhow,  my map has the version that gave PA-17 more territory, and it is still 13,000 short.

When I followed the "new" statewide map I got PA-17 within 2000. There may be other splits I haven't picked up yet.

[muon2]

What inspired that Dem map? The notion that since the 19th district is lost, the current 19th must be chopped and all other incumbents protected?

I want to know what the hell they were thinking by releasing it. Now they can't claim any moral high ground on gerrymandering.

I completely agree. They give the interested public no reason to prefer their version to the GOP offering. The OH Dems got good press out of the neutral plan they filed. It helps with their positioning on the referendum should it go forward.

[muon2]

Odd Muon2.  Anyhow,  my map has the version that gave PA-17 more territory, and it is still 13,000 short.

When I followed the "new" statewide map I got PA-17 within 2000. There may be other splits I haven't picked up yet.

The regional maps now appear to match the statewide.

[Keystone Phil]

And even after making it one of the most gerrymandered districts in the country, Meehan's district still went for Obama by four points. And with Pitts' district going for Obama, I guess we can expect Flyers to go on for years about how it's a swing seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some other dude drew the map in DRA and got these numbers:



(Source)

[Torie]

Odd Muon2.  Anyhow,  my map has the version that gave PA-17 more territory, and it is still 13,000 short.

Boy, PA-05 was shaved to the bone, almost down to dangerous levels. I would not have done that. It should have switched some territory with PA-10.  What in the world were the Pubs thinking? I will put up the finished map in this reply later with the data (except for the 3 Philly Dem pack CD's, which I will defer until in the mood, since it really doesn't matter of course).  I must say Shuster (PA-09) did do his job in the end. He shipped a lot of pubs off to PA-18 (by sucking up some Dem precincts in Westmorland), and some Pubs to PA-12, since he was generous in giving up to PA-12 a bigger slice of hyper Pubbie Somerset County.

And below are the maps. The interior divvying up between the Dem pack CD's, PA 01, 02  and 13 has still not been done - obviously.  (For those 3 CD's, I used Sean Trende's two party McCain percentages, to generate the PVI's.) Yes, there are still population discrepancies in some of the other CD's, but I tried to be as meticulous as possible. It may be that the published maps are just off a bit, or themselves works in progress at the margins. I have put up a new column showing the differences between my numbers and Sean Trende's, that Krazen was gracious enough to bring to our attention, but if I had to bet, my numbers hew more closely to the published map CD shapes. Granted, the 10 basis point discrepancies may be rounding error.

As to PA-17, the population shortfall still remains a riddle within a mystery wrapped in an enigma, or however Churchill put it about the Soviet Union back when in his own glorious inimitable way (gosh I love that man's facility with words, which like me he viewed as just gleaming toys to savor). Muon2 says he got it, so hopefully he will point out where PA-17 reaches out some more vis a vis my map, to just touch some more folks. Where or where is it?

[Torie]

Odd Muon2.  Anyhow,  my map has the version that gave PA-17 more territory, and it is still 13,000 short.

Boy, PA-05 was shaved to the bone, almost down to dangerous levels. I would not have done that. It should have switched some territory with PA-10.  What in the world were the Pubs thinking? I will put up the finished map in this reply later with the data (except for the 3 Philly Dem pack CD's, which I will defer until in the mood, since it really doesn't matter of course).  I must say Shuster (PA-09) did do his job in the end. He shipped a lot of pubs off to PA-18 (by sucking up some Dem precincts in Westmorland), and some Pubs to PA-12, since he was generous in giving up to PA-12 a bigger slice of hyper Pubbie Somerset County.

The Dem population in PA-05 is extremely incoherent; part of them are state college students and parts are working class whites based around Erie. It's not really in danger in any normal year.

That is all well and good, but the trends suck both in the Erie and State College areas for the GOP, and thus Thompson bitched about this map (obviously he was ignored, and told to suck it up and get used to it, since he did not have the votes in the legislature to do something about it), and in my opinion with reason. I don't think he appeals much to the academic crowd despite living in a remote area of Centre County (he was a nursing home administrator, and looks fat and old for his age), and maybe he appeals particularly to working class whites, and maybe not.  I see potential trouble ahead. Granted, I would like to see him on the tube to get a better measure of the man.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So because Pitts is such a prick he might end up with a barely Obama seat (I tried drawing that and yep it very well could be) and thus might lose. That'd be so great, lol. But they are giving him the more Democratic part of Chester (even if he's insisting on it) and he's losing part of Lancaster but not Lancaster proper and is now getting all of Reading...seriously most incumbents would whining like hell over such a district.

[Torie]

So because Pitts is such a prick he might end up with a barely Obama seat (I tried drawing that and yep it very well could be) and thus might lose. That'd be so great, lol. But they are giving him the more Democratic part of Chester (even if he's insisting on it) and he's losing part of Lancaster but not Lancaster proper and is now getting all of Reading...seriously most incumbents would whining like hell over such a district.

The thing is about PA-16, is that Lancaster County, had one of the largest swings to Obama in the nation, and snapped back totally to Toomey, also the largest snap back in PA (just like my hood in OC, and Torie himself, snapped back totally to the Pubs in 2010, also one of the largest snapbacks in the nation, about 10 points, although less than Lancaster's 13 points). Lancaster County won't be snapping back to the Dems in the near future anytime soon, given the issues in play. So I don't worry much about PA-16, despite the ludicrous map. I worry more about PA-05 over the longer term, vis a vis Pubbie interests.

[krazen1211]

So because Pitts is such a prick he might end up with a barely Obama seat (I tried drawing that and yep it very well could be) and thus might lose. That'd be so great, lol. But they are giving him the more Democratic part of Chester (even if he's insisting on it) and he's losing part of Lancaster but not Lancaster proper and is now getting all of Reading...seriously most incumbents would whining like hell over such a district.

Good luck with that. Even Rick Santorum in 2006 I believe won that district.

[krazen1211]

A great post on RRH estimating the numbers for various elections.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1495/pennsylvania-numbeeeeers

[Keystone Phil]

So because Pitts is such a prick he might end up with a barely Obama seat (I tried drawing that and yep it very well could be) and thus might lose. That'd be so great, lol. But they are giving him the more Democratic part of Chester (even if he's insisting on it) and he's losing part of Lancaster but not Lancaster proper and is now getting all of Reading...seriously most incumbents would whining like hell over such a district.

Oh, great. Flyers and BRTD on this kick now.

See Torie's comment. He isn't going to lose. Sure, Lancaster is trending to the Dems but not nearly by enough to defeat Pitts or whoever the next Republican nominee is. This seat is only in play in a very, very bad year for the GOP. By the way, you'll need a good candidate there, too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Probably would, but if Obama could win the seat even if barely Pitts isn't exactly safe since he's a dick I don't see being much more popular than a generic Republican.

[Keystone Phil]

Pitts isn't exactly safe since he's a dick

He rates as "a dick" on the BRTD Index. Watch out, Congressman.

The best part of your stupid post (pardon the redundancy) is where you admit that you don't even know much about the guy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pitts' behavior right now and stubborness is proof he's a dick.

But more importantly, the guy is a far right backbencher who I knew nothing about until redistricting came up. Why would he be so much more popular than a generic Republican? He doesn't exactly overperform too much either against joke candidates.

[Keystone Phil]

Pitts' behavior right now and stubborness is proof he's a dick.

But more importantly, the guy is a far right backbencher who I knew nothing about until redistricting came up. Why would he be so much more popular than a generic Republican? He doesn't exactly overperform too much either against joke candidates.

So you still know nothing about his personal popularity in the district, ground operation, etc. but will insist that he can't be more popular than a generic Republican because you, some toolbox from Minnesota, didn't know anything about him until redistricting came around.

Thanks for the call, BRTD.

He isn't some super popular guy but your "proof that he's a dick" is more of your usual nonsense so please just stop commenting. Please.

[Bacon King]

It's worth pointing out that in 2008, Pitts polled 5% higher in his district than McCain did... he definitely has a support base that exceeds the Republican PVI.

[muon2]

Torie,

Here's my take on PA-17 from the GOP maps. You can see that with the Stroudsburg inclusion and by running up to Carbondale I get districts within 1000 of the ideal. Note that PA-17 also seems to have one precinct in the city of Bethlehem as well.

[Torie]

Torie,

Here's my take on PA-17 from the GOP maps. You can see that with the Stroudsburg inclusion and by running up to Carbondale I get districts within 1000 of the ideal. Note that PA-17 also seems to have one precinct in the city of Bethlehem as well.

Thanks Mike. Two precincts were taken in Bethlehem actually (Hispanics precincts, both of which voted 83.3% Obama).   That was an error I had made before; I was tricked by a very similar shape right next to it. A change in that area is that Nazareth was added to PA-17. Actually subtle changes to the map were made all over the place (including a revamp of the action around Reading, and doing cuts into municipalities to equalize population (PA-11 takes two in Harrisburg), and yes, they redid the layout of who gets what in the Scranton area in a rather major way). They also did the precinct cuts, since a few precincts don't match (including one in Tioga). Another looks to be in Lebanon City, to equalize out PA-11 which I still can't equalize. PA-17 now has 1,000 too many people in my map, but I suspect I see the precinct cut in Monroe.   

Isn't this fun?  Oh yes, at the moment in my map PA-06 is now short almost 11,000 people. I see a few precincts changes were made in the Philly suburbs - as well as precinct cuts. Yes, it's still morning in CA, but I need a drink! 

[muon2]

Torie,

Here's my take on PA-17 from the GOP maps. You can see that with the Stroudsburg inclusion and by running up to Carbondale I get districts within 1000 of the ideal. Note that PA-17 also seems to have one precinct in the city of Bethlehem as well.

Thanks Mike. Two precincts were taken in Bethlehem actually (Hispanics precincts, both of which voted 83.3% Obama).   That was an error I had made before; I was tricked by a very similar shape right next to it. A change in that area is that Nazareth was added to PA-17. Actually subtle changes to the map were made all over the place (including a revamp of the action around Reading, and doing cuts into municipalities to equalize population (PA-11 takes two in Harrisburg), and yes, they redid the layout of who gets what in the Scranton area in a rather major way). They also did the precinct cuts, since a few precincts don't match (including one in Tioga). Another looks to be in Lebanon City, to equalize out PA-11 which I still can't equalize. PA-17 now has 1,000 too many people in my map, but I suspect I see the precinct cut in Monroe.   

Isn't this fun?  Oh yes, at the moment in my map PA-06 is now short almost 11,000 people. I see a few precincts changes were made in the Philly suburbs - as well as precinct cuts. Yes, it's still morning in CA, but I need a drink! 

Here's my interpretation of SE PA. Some lines are pretty hard to discern. I do take 2 pcts out of Lebanon city, but my PA-06 is within 1K. See if you concur.

[Torie]

Torie,

Here's my take on PA-17 from the GOP maps. You can see that with the Stroudsburg inclusion and by running up to Carbondale I get districts within 1000 of the ideal. Note that PA-17 also seems to have one precinct in the city of Bethlehem as well.

Thanks Mike. Two precincts were taken in Bethlehem actually (Hispanics precincts, both of which voted 83.3% Obama).   That was an error I had made before; I was tricked by a very similar shape right next to it. A change in that area is that Nazareth was added to PA-17. Actually subtle changes to the map were made all over the place (including a revamp of the action around Reading, and doing cuts into municipalities to equalize population (PA-11 takes two in Harrisburg), and yes, they redid the layout of who gets what in the Scranton area in a rather major way). They also did the precinct cuts, since a few precincts don't match (including one in Tioga). Another looks to be in Lebanon City, to equalize out PA-11 which I still can't equalize. PA-17 now has 1,000 too many people in my map, but I suspect I see the precinct cut in Monroe.   

Isn't this fun?  Oh yes, at the moment in my map PA-06 is now short almost 11,000 people. I see a few precincts changes were made in the Philly suburbs - as well as precinct cuts. Yes, it's still morning in CA, but I need a drink! 

Here's my interpretation of SE PA. Some lines are pretty hard to discern. I do take 2 pcts out of Lebanon city, but my PA-06 is within 1K. See if you concur.

Nothing was attached.  Maybe you just decided to nuke SE PA (hey you're a physicist so you have the power man) since the SE PA map is such an excrescence.

[muon2]

Torie,

Here's my take on PA-17 from the GOP maps. You can see that with the Stroudsburg inclusion and by running up to Carbondale I get districts within 1000 of the ideal. Note that PA-17 also seems to have one precinct in the city of Bethlehem as well.

Thanks Mike. Two precincts were taken in Bethlehem actually (Hispanics precincts, both of which voted 83.3% Obama).   That was an error I had made before; I was tricked by a very similar shape right next to it. A change in that area is that Nazareth was added to PA-17. Actually subtle changes to the map were made all over the place (including a revamp of the action around Reading, and doing cuts into municipalities to equalize population (PA-11 takes two in Harrisburg), and yes, they redid the layout of who gets what in the Scranton area in a rather major way). They also did the precinct cuts, since a few precincts don't match (including one in Tioga). Another looks to be in Lebanon City, to equalize out PA-11 which I still can't equalize. PA-17 now has 1,000 too many people in my map, but I suspect I see the precinct cut in Monroe.   

Isn't this fun?  Oh yes, at the moment in my map PA-06 is now short almost 11,000 people. I see a few precincts changes were made in the Philly suburbs - as well as precinct cuts. Yes, it's still morning in CA, but I need a drink! 

Here's my interpretation of SE PA. Some lines are pretty hard to discern. I do take 2 pcts out of Lebanon city, but my PA-06 is within 1K. See if you concur.

Nothing was attached.  Maybe you just decided to nuke SE PA (hey you're a physicist so you have the power man) since the SE PA map is such an excrescence.

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