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Dgov
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« Reply #25 on: October 25, 2010, 01:45:22 am »
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Again, Holden would run against Dent and likely win in 2012.  He would swamp Dent in the Schuylkill and Dauphin portions and probably hold Dent to 55% or less everywhere else.   And you are cutting PA-10 and PA-11 awfully thin for Republicans. 

It would probably be better to just concede the Democrats a Safe district for Holden in Central PA.  Draw one from Harrisburg to Schuylkill to Scranton and Reading.  You can make one that's about 65% Obama, and by doing so you make the 11th, 15th, and 6th much safer for Republicans.
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« Reply #26 on: October 25, 2010, 02:48:40 am »

Again, Holden would run against Dent and likely win in 2012.  He would swamp Dent in the Schuylkill and Dauphin portions and probably hold Dent to 55% or less everywhere else.   And you are cutting PA-10 and PA-11 awfully thin for Republicans. 

It would probably be better to just concede the Democrats a Safe district for Holden in Central PA.  Draw one from Harrisburg to Schuylkill to Scranton and Reading.  You can make one that's about 65% Obama, and by doing so you make the 11th, 15th, and 6th much safer for Republicans.

But that forces either the 7th or 8th into heavily Dem areas. Republicans can win the current swing suburban districts like 7 and 8 in a year like this, but will have a difficult time holding them as 2006 and 2008 showed. I presume that the PA legislature will want to protect the R incumbents, so there will need to be enough districts to accommodate all of them. It's harder to make a map with only 1 suburban D seat than to make one with no solid D seat in NE PA.
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« Reply #27 on: October 25, 2010, 03:29:24 am »

There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden.  

I think I have figured out what to do about the Holden district if the GOP runs the map and all seats that are projected for the GOP do go that way. Platts can add Harrisburg and points west from CD 17 and be called CD 17 (since 19 has to go away anyway). Gerlach takes Lebanon and southern Dauphin, while CD8 (presumably Fitzpatrick) takes northern Berks from CD 17.  Dent adds most of Schuylkill and northern Dauphin which shifts CD 15 about 2% more R though it still would have voted Obama. Central Schuylkill which has the D-leaning areas including Holden's home is attached to CD 5, but it remains a strong R district (54% McCain). There would be a new D-district (new CD 12) primarily in Montco that Holden could move to and maintain a place in Congress.



CD 6: 50% McCain
CD 10: 49.5% McCain (49.3% Obama)
CD 11: 51% Obama (56% in 2008)
CD 15: 53% Obama (55% in 2008)
CD 17: 53% McCain


Again, Holden would run against Dent and likely win in 2012.  He would swamp Dent in the Schuylkill and Dauphin portions and probably hold Dent to 55% or less everywhere else.   And you are cutting PA-10 and PA-11 awfully thin for Republicans. 

I drew the map to reduce the ability of Holden to run against Dent. The Schuylkill and Duaphin parts I moved are 17% more R than the state as a whole (those areas went 61-38 for McCain) and they only represent 1/6 of the district. I also took out Easton from CD 15 which votes about 75% Dem and its removal should help Dent. Holden probably does better against Gerlach since the CD 6 I drew has much more of Holden's area than Gerlach's.

I boosted the R performance in CD 11 by 5% which should be enough to allow an incumbent to hold it in all but the worst years. I did lower CD 10's performance by 4% so if Carney wins it's a better district for him. It is still roughly R+4 so it should lean R in a neutral year open seat contest, and I shifted it substantially west where Marino comes from.
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« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2010, 12:36:58 am »
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There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden.  

I think I have figured out what to do about the Holden district if the GOP runs the map and all seats that are projected for the GOP do go that way. Platts can add Harrisburg and points west from CD 17 and be called CD 17 (since 19 has to go away anyway). Gerlach takes Lebanon and southern Dauphin, while CD8 (presumably Fitzpatrick) takes northern Berks from CD 17.  Dent adds most of Schuylkill and northern Dauphin which shifts CD 15 about 2% more R though it still would have voted Obama. Central Schuylkill which has the D-leaning areas including Holden's home is attached to CD 5, but it remains a strong R district (54% McCain). There would be a new D-district (new CD 12) primarily in Montco that Holden could move to and maintain a place in Congress.



CD 6: 50% McCain
CD 10: 49.5% McCain (49.3% Obama)
CD 11: 51% Obama (56% in 2008)
CD 15: 53% Obama (55% in 2008)
CD 17: 53% McCain


Again, Holden would run against Dent and likely win in 2012.  He would swamp Dent in the Schuylkill and Dauphin portions and probably hold Dent to 55% or less everywhere else.   And you are cutting PA-10 and PA-11 awfully thin for Republicans. 

I drew the map to reduce the ability of Holden to run against Dent. The Schuylkill and Duaphin parts I moved are 17% more R than the state as a whole (those areas went 61-38 for McCain) and they only represent 1/6 of the district. I also took out Easton from CD 15 which votes about 75% Dem and its removal should help Dent. Holden probably does better against Gerlach since the CD 6 I drew has much more of Holden's area than Gerlach's.


Holden would carry those areas handily.  He always gets around 70% and Schuylkill.
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« Reply #29 on: October 28, 2010, 05:59:19 am »

There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden.  

I think I have figured out what to do about the Holden district if the GOP runs the map and all seats that are projected for the GOP do go that way. Platts can add Harrisburg and points west from CD 17 and be called CD 17 (since 19 has to go away anyway). Gerlach takes Lebanon and southern Dauphin, while CD8 (presumably Fitzpatrick) takes northern Berks from CD 17.  Dent adds most of Schuylkill and northern Dauphin which shifts CD 15 about 2% more R though it still would have voted Obama. Central Schuylkill which has the D-leaning areas including Holden's home is attached to CD 5, but it remains a strong R district (54% McCain). There would be a new D-district (new CD 12) primarily in Montco that Holden could move to and maintain a place in Congress.



CD 6: 50% McCain
CD 10: 49.5% McCain (49.3% Obama)
CD 11: 51% Obama (56% in 2008)
CD 15: 53% Obama (55% in 2008)
CD 17: 53% McCain


Again, Holden would run against Dent and likely win in 2012.  He would swamp Dent in the Schuylkill and Dauphin portions and probably hold Dent to 55% or less everywhere else.   And you are cutting PA-10 and PA-11 awfully thin for Republicans. 

I drew the map to reduce the ability of Holden to run against Dent. The Schuylkill and Duaphin parts I moved are 17% more R than the state as a whole (those areas went 61-38 for McCain) and they only represent 1/6 of the district. I also took out Easton from CD 15 which votes about 75% Dem and its removal should help Dent. Holden probably does better against Gerlach since the CD 6 I drew has much more of Holden's area than Gerlach's.


Holden would carry those areas handily.  He always gets around 70% and Schuylkill.

I agree that he wins those areas against a typical underfunded challenger. However, those areas I put in CD 15 are very hard R, and though he might win them against Dent I don't see large margins there. He would miss his home base of Pottsville, since I put that area in CD 5. Since the majority of that district is Dent's home base of Lehigh, I don't see a clear win for Holden if the incumbents were head to head.
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« Reply #30 on: October 28, 2010, 06:54:48 am »
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The best way to get rid of Holden would be to divide Schuylkill among three or four districts.
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« Reply #31 on: October 28, 2010, 01:24:30 pm »
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The best way to get rid of Holden would be to divide Schuylkill among three or four districts.

No, the best way to get rid of Holden would be to put him in a Safe D district and wait for the primary challenge.
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« Reply #32 on: November 06, 2010, 01:25:53 am »
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The best way to get rid of Holden would be to divide Schuylkill among three or four districts.

Then he would just choose to run in whatever district connected to Schuykill is the most Democratic and run there. 
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« Reply #33 on: November 06, 2010, 08:03:52 am »

The best way to get rid of Holden would be to divide Schuylkill among three or four districts.

Then he would just choose to run in whatever district connected to Schuykill is the most Democratic and run there. 

So perhaps the best choice for the GOP is to connect central Schuylkill through Reading to Montco. Holden can run safely there, and the Montco suburbs were a problem for any of the GOP reps in the area.
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« Reply #34 on: November 06, 2010, 01:21:13 pm »
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The best way to get rid of Holden would be to divide Schuylkill among three or four districts.

Then he would just choose to run in whatever district connected to Schuykill is the most Democratic and run there. 

So perhaps the best choice for the GOP is to connect central Schuylkill through Reading to Montco. Holden can run safely there, and the Montco suburbs were a problem for any of the GOP reps in the area.

That is quite brilliant, and plus, if Holden retires, it may potentially be a swing district anyway. The Dems in Montco might nominate a liberal, cultural and otherwise,  who gets decimated in Schuykill.
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« Reply #35 on: November 06, 2010, 02:03:47 pm »
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Alternatively you could use his Schuylkill base as a way of trying to shore up the new reps further north. Is a ridiculous Schuylkill-to-Scranton district possible?
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« Reply #36 on: November 06, 2010, 02:20:29 pm »
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First, you don't have to worry about who lives where; the representative has to only live in the state, not the district.

Second, Muon, you are making CD's 5, 6, 7, 15, and 16, hugely expensive, because they span over several media markets.

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« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2010, 02:26:12 pm »
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Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?

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« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2010, 06:14:47 pm »

First, you don't have to worry about who lives where; the representative has to only live in the state, not the district.
I understand that, but I was responding to other posts that suggested that Holden would go to whichever district included parts of Schuylkill and had the best Dem lean. That's why I suggested he could most easily run in the open, heavily D, Montco district I drew (new CD-12).

Quote
Second, Muon, you are making CD's 5, 6, 7, 15, and 16, hugely expensive, because they span over several media markets.
That normally serves to help the incumbent, since they generally start with a cash advantage. If the GOP is trying to protect its gains, that actually might be a good strategy.

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?
I could, but the result is a number of districts that would flip Dem in a year like 2008. To avoid this one has to create at least one hard-D district in the Philly suburbs. The safest course is to create 4 D districts in eastern PA - three in Philly and inner suburbs (basically PA 1, 2, and 13), and another either in the Montco suburbs or in Scranton/Wilkes Barre/Bethlehem. My map is example of the former, but latter is also possible. The best option may depend on what the political trends forecast for the coming decade.
 
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Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?
I assume that the current PA-12 is the district to be cut since the population changes favor a lost district in the west and that's easier to slice up that PA-4. PA-4 could be made more GOP, or it could be left as a target should it become an open seat. There's a danger to try to get both Critz and Altmire, since both have shown their ability to win in an R-leaning district. I made PA 9 and 18 my strongest R districts to concentrate on eliminating PA 12.

To directly answer your question, I think the answer is yes, though I haven't tried it. PA 18 would wrap around the north side of Pittsburgh, PA 9 would move even more into Westmoreland than my map shows, PA 5 gets Blair, PA 4 would pick up Butler, and PA 3 would go into Clarion and Armstrong.
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« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2010, 06:45:08 pm »
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I've lived in PA for 4 years now - one thing to keep in mind is that Lancaster and York counties have very strong senses of county identities, and a pretty long-standing rivalry (the names are a giveaway).  I have Lancaster County friends and they always say that York - not to mention Harrisburg - is a whole other world.  They have traditionally each had a seat to themselves; any map that splits either county is probably a no-go.  (These are Republican counties, so their preferences have to be taken into account.) 

I have the impression that Bucks is sort of the same way - that one always talks about "the" Bucks County district.  Maybe the Lehigh Valley as well.  But I'm less sure of these. 

With all the seats they've won, and the bluish tilt of the area, the GOP can't make everyone in southeast PA safe.  Best you can do is make them all slightly safer while keeping them with swing areas that have voted for them before - which implies that you can't mess with the current districts all that much.  Out west, put Critz and Altmire together in an R-leaning district and make sure PA3 stays red.  Can't do all that AND guarantee that Holden loses, although moving his district farther north and/or west is inevitable. 
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« Reply #40 on: November 07, 2010, 12:13:34 am »
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Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?



Republicans wont want any part of PA-13 in PA-06, PA-08, and PA-15 except for a maybe a few very Republican enclaves up north. 

PA-04 could not really made more Republican that it already is.  What they will probably try to do is pair PA-12 and PA-18 together. 
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« Reply #41 on: November 07, 2010, 12:57:11 am »
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First, you don't have to worry about who lives where; the representative has to only live in the state, not the district.
I understand that, but I was responding to other posts that suggested that Holden would go to whichever district included parts of Schuylkill and had the best Dem lean. That's why I suggested he could most easily run in the open, heavily D, Montco district I drew (new CD-12).

There were some comments about wher Fitzpatrick lived as well.  Brady wasn't in CD 1 until the last redistricting.


Quote
Quote
Second, Muon, you are making CD's 5, 6, 7, 15, and 16, hugely expensive, because they span over several media markets.
That normally serves to help the incumbent, since they generally start with a cash advantage. If the GOP is trying to protect its gains, that actually might be a good strategy.

The incumbents don't have that kind of money.  In a bad year, where they would be on the defensive, you might be talking about several million per candidate to get on the air.  If you are the RCCC, and you have 2 million to spend in PA, are you going to cut four others out (who could be held) or are you going to spread it around, where it won't be too effectiv?.  Or would you maybe use it the Scranton/Wikes Barre, or Erie, or Johnstown/Altoona media Markets, where it might make a difference in 3 races?

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?
I could, but the result is a number of districts that would flip Dem in a year like 2008. To avoid this one has to create at least one hard-D district in the Philly suburbs. The safest course is to create 4 D districts in eastern PA - three in Philly and inner suburbs (basically PA 1, 2, and 13), and another either in the Montco suburbs or in Scranton/Wilkes Barre/Bethlehem. My map is example of the former, but latter is also possible. The best option may depend on what the political trends forecast for the coming decade.

Well, couldn't you put most of the Democrats in CD 1 or 2, and strengthen one or more of those other districts?  You would be eliminating a Democratic district.

I wouldn't care where you'd draw the lines; you'd get one or two districts that would flip in a 2006 or 2008 type year.
 

Quote
Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?
I assume that the current PA-12 is the district to be cut since the population changes favor a lost district in the west and that's easier to slice up that PA-4. PA-4 could be made more GOP, or it could be left as a target should it become an open seat. There's a danger to try to get both Critz and Altmire, since both have shown their ability to win in an R-leaning district. I made PA 9 and 18 my strongest R districts to concentrate on eliminating PA 12.

To directly answer your question, I think the answer is yes, though I haven't tried it. PA 18 would wrap around the north side of Pittsburgh, PA 9 would move even more into Westmoreland than my map shows, PA 5 gets Blair, PA 4 would pick up Butler, and PA 3 would go into Clarion and Armstrong.


What I'm looking at is some way to put Critz or Altmire into an incredibly strong GOP district, stronger than PA-4 is today.  And in doing so, not harm Murphy in PA 18.

It would have the effect of eliminating on seat (Schwartz) and giving Critz or Altmire a hugely GOP district.
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« Reply #42 on: November 07, 2010, 01:06:46 am »
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Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?

The situation in the SW is delicate. I would leave PA-04 alone, just move with the flow for population and changes in other districts. The key to the SW in getting rid of Critz is Westmoreland and Southern Allegheny. Fayette and Greene counties are dangerous WV style territory. Westmoreland is probably the most Republican (I mean Toomey at 61%). So I think that if you can give as much of Westmoreland to Murphy as possible and shove the mining and WV country into the 9th with Shuster, you can probably prevent Critz from winning either.



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« Reply #43 on: November 07, 2010, 01:16:32 am »
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First, you don't have to worry about who lives where; the representative has to only live in the state, not the district.
I understand that, but I was responding to other posts that suggested that Holden would go to whichever district included parts of Schuylkill and had the best Dem lean. That's why I suggested he could most easily run in the open, heavily D, Montco district I drew (new CD-12).

There were some comments about wher Fitzpatrick lived as well.  Brady wasn't in CD 1 until the last redistricting.


Quote
Quote
Second, Muon, you are making CD's 5, 6, 7, 15, and 16, hugely expensive, because they span over several media markets.
That normally serves to help the incumbent, since they generally start with a cash advantage. If the GOP is trying to protect its gains, that actually might be a good strategy.

The incumbents don't have that kind of money.  In a bad year, where they would be on the defensive, you might be talking about several million per candidate to get on the air.  If you are the RCCC, and you have 2 million to spend in PA, are you going to cut four others out (who could be held) or are you going to spread it around, where it won't be too effectiv?.  Or would you maybe use it the Scranton/Wikes Barre, or Erie, or Johnstown/Altoona media Markets, where it might make a difference in 3 races?

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?
I could, but the result is a number of districts that would flip Dem in a year like 2008. To avoid this one has to create at least one hard-D district in the Philly suburbs. The safest course is to create 4 D districts in eastern PA - three in Philly and inner suburbs (basically PA 1, 2, and 13), and another either in the Montco suburbs or in Scranton/Wilkes Barre/Bethlehem. My map is example of the former, but latter is also possible. The best option may depend on what the political trends forecast for the coming decade.

Well, couldn't you put most of the Democrats in CD 1 or 2, and strengthen one or more of those other districts?  You would be eliminating a Democratic district.

I wouldn't care where you'd draw the lines; you'd get one or two districts that would flip in a 2006 or 2008 type year.
 

Quote
Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?
I assume that the current PA-12 is the district to be cut since the population changes favor a lost district in the west and that's easier to slice up that PA-4. PA-4 could be made more GOP, or it could be left as a target should it become an open seat. There's a danger to try to get both Critz and Altmire, since both have shown their ability to win in an R-leaning district. I made PA 9 and 18 my strongest R districts to concentrate on eliminating PA 12.

To directly answer your question, I think the answer is yes, though I haven't tried it. PA 18 would wrap around the north side of Pittsburgh, PA 9 would move even more into Westmoreland than my map shows, PA 5 gets Blair, PA 4 would pick up Butler, and PA 3 would go into Clarion and Armstrong.


What I'm looking at is some way to put Critz or Altmire into an incredibly strong GOP district, stronger than PA-4 is today.  And in doing so, not harm Murphy in PA 18.

It would have the effect of eliminating on seat (Schwartz) and giving Critz or Altmire a hugely GOP district.



Trying to eliminate Schwartz would likely backfire in a Dem year.  It would take away how much help you could give to the 6th, 7th and 8th.   If anything I think it would make sense for the GOP to make the 13th a bit more Democratic, push the 1st a bit further into Delaware County take some more Democratic areas from the 7th, and trying to sure up the 6th and 8th a bit more to give them more cushion to withstand a wave.   If they try to eliminate Schwartz they lesson how much they could help out the 6th, 7th and 8th and could get lose all three of them in a wave.  Hell if the GOP nominates Palin, the SE is a bloodbath.

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« Reply #44 on: November 07, 2010, 05:05:10 am »

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?
The situation in the SW is delicate. I would leave PA-04 alone, just move with the flow for population and changes in other districts. The key to the SW in getting rid of Critz is Westmoreland and Southern Allegheny. Fayette and Greene counties are dangerous WV style territory. Westmoreland is probably the most Republican (I mean Toomey at 61%). So I think that if you can give as much of Westmoreland to Murphy as possible and shove the mining and WV country into the 9th with Shuster, you can probably prevent Critz from winning either.
That was exactly my strategy in the SW.


Trying to eliminate Schwartz would likely backfire in a Dem year.  It would take away how much help you could give to the 6th, 7th and 8th.   If anything I think it would make sense for the GOP to make the 13th a bit more Democratic, push the 1st a bit further into Delaware County take some more Democratic areas from the 7th, and trying to sure up the 6th and 8th a bit more to give them more cushion to withstand a wave.   If they try to eliminate Schwartz they lesson how much they could help out the 6th, 7th and 8th and could get lose all three of them in a wave.  Hell if the GOP nominates Palin, the SE is a bloodbath.
I tend to agree. In my map I moved CD 1 as you suggest, and the best way to make CD 13 more Dem is to give it southern Bucks as I have done. The problem is the rest of Montco. There really are enough people for four solid D districts in SE in an average year, let alone a year like 2008. Trying to divide them up risks losing two or three seats that don't have to swing when a strong D year occurs.

I've lived in PA for 4 years now - one thing to keep in mind is that Lancaster and York counties have very strong senses of county identities, and a pretty long-standing rivalry (the names are a giveaway).  I have Lancaster County friends and they always say that York - not to mention Harrisburg - is a whole other world.  They have traditionally each had a seat to themselves; any map that splits either county is probably a no-go.  (These are Republican counties, so their preferences have to be taken into account.) 

I have the impression that Bucks is sort of the same way - that one always talks about "the" Bucks County district.  Maybe the Lehigh Valley as well.  But I'm less sure of these. 

With all the seats they've won, and the bluish tilt of the area, the GOP can't make everyone in southeast PA safe.  Best you can do is make them all slightly safer while keeping them with swing areas that have voted for them before - which implies that you can't mess with the current districts all that much.  Out west, put Critz and Altmire together in an R-leaning district and make sure PA3 stays red.  Can't do all that AND guarantee that Holden loses, although moving his district farther north and/or west is inevitable. 
I started by keeping Lancaster and York separate and intact. The problem is that there are now three GOP reps in Delco and Chester, and the R votes are in the counties to the west. Linking the districts in strips to the west is the only way to secure the districts. The PA GOP will have to decide between incumbent safety and maintaining traditional district areas.
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« Reply #45 on: November 07, 2010, 12:42:31 pm »
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There would be a new D-district (new CD 12) primarily in Montco that Holden could move to and maintain a place in Congress.

Holden could never win a Dem primary in the new CD-12. He would run in the district that his home was put into. CD-s 6, 8 10, 11 and 15 all need to be made more GOP. Those numbers just are not going to hold up very well. Maybe the GOP needs to give up another seat in the northeast.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2010, 12:47:59 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #46 on: November 07, 2010, 04:58:23 pm »
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There would be a new D-district (new CD 12) primarily in Montco that Holden could move to and maintain a place in Congress.

Holden could never win a Dem primary in the new CD-12. He would run in the district that his home was put into. CD-s 6, 8 10, 11 and 15 all need to be made more GOP. Those numbers just are not going to hold up very well. Maybe the GOP needs to give up another seat in the northeast.

Ten only needs to change if it needs population. The Dems would be hard pressed to get that seat back as currently drawn. It took a wave, and a scandal to disolodge an incumbent and then by only 6%. Marino may not be a strong campaigner, but as long as the district remains as it is now, he is safe.

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?
The situation in the SW is delicate. I would leave PA-04 alone, just move with the flow for population and changes in other districts. The key to the SW in getting rid of Critz is Westmoreland and Southern Allegheny. Fayette and Greene counties are dangerous WV style territory. Westmoreland is probably the most Republican (I mean Toomey at 61%). So I think that if you can give as much of Westmoreland to Murphy as possible and shove the mining and WV country into the 9th with Shuster, you can probably prevent Critz from winning either.
That was exactly my strategy in the SW.


Trying to eliminate Schwartz would likely backfire in a Dem year.  It would take away how much help you could give to the 6th, 7th and 8th.   If anything I think it would make sense for the GOP to make the 13th a bit more Democratic, push the 1st a bit further into Delaware County take some more Democratic areas from the 7th, and trying to sure up the 6th and 8th a bit more to give them more cushion to withstand a wave.   If they try to eliminate Schwartz they lesson how much they could help out the 6th, 7th and 8th and could get lose all three of them in a wave.  Hell if the GOP nominates Palin, the SE is a bloodbath.
I tend to agree. In my map I moved CD 1 as you suggest, and the best way to make CD 13 more Dem is to give it southern Bucks as I have done. The problem is the rest of Montco. There really are enough people for four solid D districts in SE in an average year, let alone a year like 2008. Trying to divide them up risks losing two or three seats that don't have to swing when a strong D year occurs.

I've lived in PA for 4 years now - one thing to keep in mind is that Lancaster and York counties have very strong senses of county identities, and a pretty long-standing rivalry (the names are a giveaway).  I have Lancaster County friends and they always say that York - not to mention Harrisburg - is a whole other world.  They have traditionally each had a seat to themselves; any map that splits either county is probably a no-go.  (These are Republican counties, so their preferences have to be taken into account.) 

I have the impression that Bucks is sort of the same way - that one always talks about "the" Bucks County district.  Maybe the Lehigh Valley as well.  But I'm less sure of these. 

With all the seats they've won, and the bluish tilt of the area, the GOP can't make everyone in southeast PA safe.  Best you can do is make them all slightly safer while keeping them with swing areas that have voted for them before - which implies that you can't mess with the current districts all that much.  Out west, put Critz and Altmire together in an R-leaning district and make sure PA3 stays red.  Can't do all that AND guarantee that Holden loses, although moving his district farther north and/or west is inevitable. 
I started by keeping Lancaster and York separate and intact. The problem is that there are now three GOP reps in Delco and Chester, and the R votes are in the counties to the west. Linking the districts in strips to the west is the only way to secure the districts. The PA GOP will have to decide between incumbent safety and maintaining traditional district areas.

I tried last night to draw a Lancaster and York district while maintaining my strategy every else. Talk about impossible. And it screws up Holden's district leaving it short on people which then messes up my plan for the 11th and 15th. Of course I was almost done when I realized I had used the old population data. Still, keeping the two separate is impossible without messing up both the delicate situation in the SE and NE. 


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« Reply #47 on: November 07, 2010, 10:24:50 pm »
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Some PA maps, keeping Lancaster, York, Bucks, and the Lehigh Valley intact:

East:

West:


From east to west:

CD1 - dark purple (Brady): Pushed a bit farther south.  Brady lives in the far western tip of Philadelphia so that's why that finger goes up like that (it's in the current map too, if you look).  For Philadelphia peace it would be better if the white wards had a seat rather than splitting everything up into two majority-minority districts; this is the way the GOP drew it last time and I assume it will continue.  78-21 Obama.  

CD2 - dark green (Fattah):  78% black, and a whopping 96-4 for Obama.  

CD13 - bright red (Schwartz):  65-34 Obama.  

CD7 - yellow (Meehan): Inner suburbs shifted to CD1; takes the remainder of Montgomery instead.  Obama 51-48, but it used to be 56-43.  

CD6 - grey (Gerlach): 52-47 Obama.  Given that he managed to win in both '06 and '08 in a district that formerly went 58-41 Obama, he could survive for quite a while longer.  With Chester/Berks/Lebanon but almost none of Montgomery, this is now purely an exurban/rural district, which fits Gerlach pretty well, I think.  Meehan is more of a dense-suburban guy.  

[note: you could mess around with the CD6/7 boundary if you wanted to match Gerlach with more of his former district's territory.  It looks nicer this way, though.]

CD8 - dark blue (Fitzpatrick): Couldn't mess with this too much given the desire to keep Bucks intact.  It does shift from 54-45 Obama to 53-46 due to some shuffling of the non-Bucks portions.  (Whoever drew the lines in 2000 was an idiot and added a heavily Dem area to the Bucks seat.)  

CD15 - lavender (Dent): Again, couldn't do too much; you're basically forced to keep the Lehigh Valley intact if Bucks stays intact.  Goes from 56-43 to 55-44 Obama.  GOP candidate hasn't been under 53% since 1998, and Dent was that guy since 2004, so he's probably going to be OK.  

CD 11 - light green (Barletta): was 57-42, now 54-45 Obama.  Keeps Wilkes-Barre and Scranton together (lest too many people yelp), but loses all the smaller industrial towns between/around them.  I put sections of Schuylkill County here because they're close to Hazleton (Barletta's hometown).  

I think with all of these eastern PA districts, the GOP just has to bank on their strong candidates.  You can't make them all safe for a generic Republican except by tearing up long-established communities and making an awful-looking map in the process; it's better to just make them relatively safe for the current incumbents, who all have demonstrated an ability to get crossover voters.  

CD17 (+part of 10) - hot pink (Holden/Marino): In the 90's, Holden was with Reading.  In the 00's, with Harrisburg and George Gekas.  Now he gets Williamsport and Tom Marino. He could still win, as Marino is a terrible candidate (a dolt on policy, and has ethical troubles that are pretty legitimate); I'm sure the GOP won't be too sad to see Marino dumped (at least, I won't - I'm conservative and live in Marino's district but couldn't bring myself to vote for him).  After that happens Holden will struggle: he was in a 51-48 McCain district but now is in a 55-44 McCain district, with only half of his home county left.  

CD16 - dark teal (Pitts): Probably the Rep. least happy with this map, Pitts is down to 51-48 McCain due to taking in all of Reading.  Oh well, them's the breaks.  (I'm not sure McCain won by that much more than this in the old district, though.)  

CD19 - light teal (Platts): Keeps York intact.  55-44 McCain.  

CD5 (+ part of 10) - grey-blue (Thompson): A heck of a district to have to travel in, since I've stretched to take in the cities outside of Scranton.  Still 53-46 McCain.  

CD9 (tan) and CD 12 (bright green): Not sure which one Shuster would want, since his current district is just about evenly split between these two.  The way I've drawn it he lives in the tan one, but you could switch that pretty easily.  Whichever one he is not in is vacant.  CD9 is 53-45 McCain, CD12 is 55-44 McCain.  

CD4 (dark purple) (Altmire/Critz): About half is former Altmire territory and a third was Critz's, so they can bloody each other in a primary and then try to survive in a 55-43 McCain district.  (Altmire's previous seat was 55-44, so he might still win.  Critz wouldn't, though; he was formerly in a 49-49 seat.)

CD14 (light yellow) (Doyle): 69-30 Obama.  

CD18 (olive) (Murphy): A lot of new territory for him, but it's still 53-46 McCain.  

CD3 (orange) (Kelly): Now 52-46 McCain, compared to 49-49 previously.  
« Last Edit: November 08, 2010, 08:46:06 am by muon2 »Logged
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« Reply #48 on: November 08, 2010, 09:01:52 am »


CD16 - dark teal (Pitts): Probably the Rep. least happy with this map, Pitts is down to 51-48 McCain due to taking in all of Reading.  Oh well, them's the breaks.  (I'm not sure McCain won by that much more than this in the old district, though.) 
I would expect him to be doubly unhappy since he lives nowhere near this district. His home is in southern Chester Co near your border between CD 6 and 7.

Quote
CD17 (+part of 10) - hot pink (Holden/Marino): In the 90's, Holden was with Reading.  In the 00's, with Harrisburg and George Gekas.  Now he gets Williamsport and Tom Marino. He could still win, as Marino is a terrible candidate (a dolt on policy, and has ethical troubles that are pretty legitimate); I'm sure the GOP won't be too sad to see Marino dumped (at least, I won't - I'm conservative and live in Marino's district but couldn't bring myself to vote for him).  After that happens Holden will struggle: he was in a 51-48 McCain district but now is in a 55-44 McCain district, with only half of his home county left.  

CD9 (tan) and CD 12 (bright green): Not sure which one Shuster would want, since his current district is just about evenly split between these two.  The way I've drawn it he lives in the tan one, but you could switch that pretty easily.  Whichever one he is not in is vacant.  CD9 is 53-45 McCain, CD12 is 55-44 McCain.  

Would the PA GOP be more likely to concede a district to Holden in this case? You could swap Harrisburg and Williamsport and maybe give Holden either Wilkes Barre or Reading as well.
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« Reply #49 on: November 08, 2010, 09:15:39 am »
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I think that Somerset county based district could fairly easily go Democratic.
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