US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not only would Altmire and Holden be pretty safe in that map, Carney shouldn't have much trouble winning the 10th there even if he does this year. Kanjorski probably goes down this year but that idiot mayor who'll beat him would likely lose to Tim Holden as mentioned. 12 wouldn't be entirely unwinnable either (Critz could move there and run against Murphy), and Dent might have trouble in the 15th. Ironically this Republican gerrymander could result in 3 Republican districts in NE PA going to 3 Democratic districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Critz might stand a chance in that yellow district. I know he lives in Johnstown but it's never hard to "move".

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just noticed Springfield voted for McCain. That's...wow. Really not what I would've expected.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The thing you have to realize about PA-13 is at the time the GOP still had a pretty solid RINO base in Montco. They were hoping they could run a "moderate" candidate (though their bench of "moderates" seems to be more the "OMG THEY'RE PRO-CHOICE!" type party-line otherwise type than a true moderate) and win Montco independents and RINOs that were mostly voting Democratic then. It epic failed partially due to Borski retiring but also them not realizing at that point that Montco was gone. The Democrats made a similar mistake in Georgia figuring they could rely on conservative Democrats (though another area where they blew it that I noticed was not realizing that suburban Republican voters are not as easily swayed as rural ones.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've often wondered what is the exact population density of Phil's zip code and neighborhood.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not necessarily a right-wing flag. It was common at anti-war rallies and whatnot during the Bush years...which is when I think Google's streetview was taken (at least in Minneapolis, I deduced it was in 2006 by reading the movies playing a theater.) Basically it's used by whichever side is out of power.

Scratch that actually, they must've recently been updated. It's now showing movies from late 2009.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How can they eliminate another Philly seat? The state is only losing one seat and the weakest in population is out west. They already eliminated a Philly seat last time and the state doesn't have that much population distribution. If the goal is to just remove the suburban parts and just result in two seats almost wholely in Philly, then they're displacing some very heavily Democratic parts of lower Montco that have to go to some Republican's seat and won't make them happy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one is specifically saying to screw Barletta, just that the Republicans are saying he's not worth trying to shore up. Though adding one of the cities from his district to Holden's seat is an idea that I suppose could be tried.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You guys are surprised? Drawing such districts on the legislative level happens all the time, a 98% Obama State Senate district in Maryland is easy to draw without looking the slightest bit gerrymandered.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've often wondered if the Democrats would ever try a district like this if they had total control:



58.1% Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

This is in reference to what, exactly?

Lancaster County will not be split, nor paired with York.  No way, no how.  I doubt it happens even if the Dems have total control. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

For the same reason that the GOP isn't going to dump lower Bucks into Schwartz's district, or crack the Lehigh Valley.

Well they don't have to to still elect Republicans from those areas. But the Democrats would be letting lots of votes go to waste by just preserving the counties as is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They aren't sacrificing Meehan by any means. It will surely be a competitive seat but I don't know of any top tier candidates yet. Fitz is looking like he'll get luck in the 8th, too, with Murphy running for Attorney General instead of going for a rematch. Gerlach will benefit the most from all of this.

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but in news from the other end of the state, rumor is that Critz might be thrown into Shuster's district. I believe Critz's own spokesman said it would be "political suicide" if Critz decided to challenge Shuster. I agree.

Not exactly as the alternative would be to just retire.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You definitely can't fit all of PA-08 in just Bucks. If you exclude anywhere in Philly and Montco you only can go into the Lehigh Valley which I don't think Dent would like. But you could use a different part of Montco like this:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's best for Fitzpatrick. He won Bucks even in 2006.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP has another reason to want to keep Bucks together: Fitzpatrick has enough of a personal vote to thereotically neutralize Lower Bucks, if it was put into PA-13 it'd also be neutralized yes, but this would free some other territory in PA-13 that the GOP would probably prefer going there. PA-13 alone isn't enough to take in all the Democratic parts of Montco so they'd get shed elsewhere.

And that makes me wonder why they'd want to remove the Philly portion of PA-08, it only voted for Obama by a point (50-49) and really isn't the type of area you'd want to put into a Dem pack seat. Similarly moving into the Lehigh Valley means taking away some of the more conservative parts of PA-15, not sure what they're planning but it looks like another potential dummymander if all of this is true. The GOP clearly didn't know what they were doing in some areas in 2002 as evidenced by the fact that Montco sliver was put into PA-08 at all (seriously, what the hell is the point of that?)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That would make Schwartz as doomed as Steve Cohen.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reading is already divided.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmmm I deleted my post so I could write up a more detailed one and now Phil's post looks weird. Anyway I commented that if the seat is made too safe Holden could be primaried, though Phil is probably correct. So this is roughly what these seats described might look like:



The 17th is around 55% Obama and 53% Dem average, the 11th is 52.6 McCain to 46.1% Obama and about a point more Republican in the average. Yeah Holden probably would be fine, a more liberal Democrat could certainly be elected if he retired though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL there's a town in Lycoming County called "Loyalsockville". That has a lot of possible interpretations in relation to this forum.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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Thank you Mrs Earll!

Well she represents an >60% Obama district, so she has to walk a fine line...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh well then that seat is gone.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What does everyone think of this district? It's one of my dream districts, obviously wouldn't ever happen without a Democratic gerrymander, but it'd be so awesome if it did:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well the point is to get the cities of York and Lancaster together along with Reading and the Democratic territory around it, and I tacked on Pottstown and the area just south of it for also nearby Democratic votes. It's a 56% Obama district drawn entirely out of areas currently represented by Republicans.