US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Pitts may well retire soon enough - he's going to be 73 in 2012.

He was vying for some major Committee or Subcommittee Chairmanship. Not sure if he got it but if he did, he'll be around for awhile longer.

By the way, I like Johnny's map for Southeastern PA. It puts me just barely into PA 8. 

[Keystone Phil]

 

In addition, as I mentioned before, I suspect local tradition dictates that York and Lancaster counties stay mostly whole (and separate, but that would happen in any GOP gerrymander anyway).  Maybe  Phil would like to weigh in on that point?  He's probably lived in the state longer than I have.  

Not sure what happens over there. I'll concede that I don't know too many details about the 16th and 19th districts.

Here's what I'll warn everyone though: don't look at these maps and say, "This is how I expect things to go." Don't forget the political process here and, from what I hear, there is at least one interesting idea being floated that hasn't been discussed by many.

and thinking somehow that whomever the Montco Dems nominated would be culturally incompatible with lower middle class Catholic NE Philly. As I said, the story line was fictive, but whatever.

It was the other way around. PA 13 was made the way it was to create problems between Borski and Hoeffel. They expected Hoeffel to be forced out or, probably more interestingly, setting up a Borski vs. Hoeffel primary which Borski would have won because of the more Democratic Northeast Philadelphia. They thought Borski wouldn't play well in Montco. That was screwed up when Borski retired. They did think Hoeffel would have problems in the NE but that wasn't the original plan.

Dent only got 54% of the vote this time in a GOP wave year (yes, there was a weird 3rd party candidate this time who got quite a number of votes, which muddies the waters). Not particularly good, particularly given that Dent is so talented a politician (he and Gerlach are the congressional Pubbie Titans really in the PA delegation).

That third party candidate was the real problem. If he wasn't there, Dent was going to demolish Callahan despite Callahan being hyped as an absolutely amazing candidate for the Dems. 

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Dent won't waste his time. The party won't allow two U.S. Senators from the Lehigh Valley though it would be funny if it happened since Toomey is the first one we've had since the mid 1800s.

Gerlach is a strong possibility since his 2010 run for Governor was apparently a set up for 2012 but with seniority in the House, good committee spots and maybe a safer House seat, he might skip an uphill battle against Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

You are absolutely right about PA-13 Phil, now that you spelled it out for me. That of course is an even bigger fantasy - that the registered Dem liberals in Montco at that time (and back then it was more true that only really committed Dems registered Dem in Montco rather than GOP, because they wanted a say in local office elections, or something), with a considerable number of Jews involved, would vote against a Pubbie over Borski.

Would vote "for" a Republican over Borksi. 

 

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But there weren't as many at the time. Remember, this was 2002, we were running a candidate with a moderate reputation and the Dems didn't really boost their numbers until a few years later. 

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I don't know how private the plan is supposed to be so I prefer to be cautious and not say much. 

[Keystone Phil]

Holden isn't switching.

It will be interesting to see how they deal with Barletta and Marino. The former is definitely more of a star within the party but the leadership might prefer the latter.

[Keystone Phil]

Holden isn't switching.

It will be interesting to see how they deal with Barletta and Marino. The former is definitely more of a star within the party but the leadership might prefer the latter.

Why would the leadership prefer Marino?

I think he's more of an establishment guy than Barletta. Barletta has always been more of a wildcard/more in touch with the grassroots.

[Keystone Phil]

Holden isn't switching.

It will be interesting to see how they deal with Barletta and Marino. The former is definitely more of a star within the party but the leadership might prefer the latter.

Why would the leadership prefer Marino?

I think he's more of an establishment guy than Barletta. Barletta has always been more of a wildcard/more in touch with the grassroots.

Aren't they both problematic in their own ways?

Sure but Barletta's "problems" are more ideological. Marino has...other issues.

 

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He is extremely popular outside of his district/region. He is very well known and has a very dedicated following. The guy could have run for any statewide office he wanted and would have been a real player.

[Keystone Phil]

He probably will be pretty hard to beat perhaps, but his CD still needs a lot of help.

He's personally popular but, yeah, it would help if he had a few more Republican areas thrown in.

[Keystone Phil]

Ugh, that yellow district in the SE (which is where I'd be) would be one of the worst districts ever.

[Keystone Phil]

You are in PA-13 eh, Phil?  You must live in a more than 55% Obama precinct then, and probably at least 57%. Everything more Pubbie in the City of Philadelphia in NE Philly is in PA-08 except for a few connecting precincts along the Delaware River heading to Bucks County, to get at the Dem precincts there.

My precinct went for Obama with 53% of the vote. It's pretty much a bellwether. When I saw Obama won my precinct that night, I turned to the Obama poll watcher and congratulated him on what was going to be a great night for them. I really thought McCain would eek out a win here. Once I saw otherwise, that was all the confirmation I needed to know it was done. Anyway, it's one of the ones you're thinking of along the Delaware River (though the ones in question, while close to the river, don't actually touch it). I live right across the street from the border with Bucks.

I'm sure McCain won some precincts a little further south (57th, 64th and 55th Wards come to mind).

[Keystone Phil]

I think I found your precinct Phil. Suffice it to say, it is but one of 4 connector precincts in NE Philly that is less than 55% Obama in NE Philly, that is needed to be used by PA-13 to connect it to a bunch of more Dem precincts beyond the connector precinct.   Do you see what I mean by looking at the map?

I think so. 

[Keystone Phil]

I've often wondered what is the exact population density of Phil's zip code and neighborhood.

My immediate neighborhood is very densely populated. I live in one of the largest precincts in Northeast Philly (over one thousand registered voters. That is big for a Philly precinct especially up here). The zip code probably isn't that dense because the three precincts closest to me are mostly single homes with a decent amount of land for a residence in a major city.

[Keystone Phil]

It's five minutes from me. It's a wealthier pocket of the Northeast. The single houses aren't your typical single houses for Northeast Philly. It being next to St. Jerome's has nothing to do with its politics.

[Keystone Phil]

It's five minutes from me. It's a wealthier pocket of the Northeast. The single houses aren't your typical single houses for Northeast Philly. It being next to St. Jerome's has nothing to do with its politics.

Pretty close to me as well, but Torie brought up a point I once thought as well.  I noticed the areas around Catholic churches are some of the most Republican divisions in the city as well.  Look at the areas around St. Matt's, Cecilia's and Christopher's.  They are arguably some of the most Republican in the city.  I think the division that voted 68% for McCain and gave Crazy McDermott 5% (the CP Congressional candidate against 2 pro-choicers Schwartz and Kats) was near St. Cecilia's in Fox Chase.   

They are like that for other reasons though. Fox Chase is very German (Bavarian German). Old Somerton is wealthier so that explains the results are St. Christopher's. The area around St. Matt's/Mayfair is so Republican because Perzel built it up during the 1980s though I do think strong social conservative/Roman Catholic beliefs play a big role there.

[Keystone Phil]

I clicked on a random South Philly block in Google Street View to see what the houses were like and one of them was flying the "Don't Tread on Me" flag.

Well, that's random for South Philly. 

[Keystone Phil]

They aren't sacrificing Meehan by any means. It will surely be a competitive seat but I don't know of any top tier candidates yet. Fitz is looking like he'll get luck in the 8th, too, with Murphy running for Attorney General instead of going for a rematch. Gerlach will benefit the most from all of this.

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but in news from the other end of the state, rumor is that Critz might be thrown into Shuster's district. I believe Critz's own spokesman said it would be "political suicide" if Critz decided to challenge Shuster. I agree.

[Keystone Phil]

enhance

Thanks for just barely putting me into the Bucks county district!   Just a precinct over and I'd be out (though that's the way it is now anyway).

Very interesting and fair division of Northeast Philly. The Far Northeast (my area) would best fit in a Bucks district. The Lower Northeast district (green) would be good except for the Montco part. Talk about a culture shock going from one end of the district to another. The red area of the Northeast in the Montco district is fair, too, since Schwartz will have to keep at least some of this area.

[Keystone Phil]

They aren't sacrificing Meehan by any means. It will surely be a competitive seat but I don't know of any top tier candidates yet. Fitz is looking like he'll get luck in the 8th, too, with Murphy running for Attorney General instead of going for a rematch. Gerlach will benefit the most from all of this.

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but in news from the other end of the state, rumor is that Critz might be thrown into Shuster's district. I believe Critz's own spokesman said it would be "political suicide" if Critz decided to challenge Shuster. I agree.

Not exactly as the alternative would be to just retire.

Well, it isn't a done deal that he'll be in Shuster's district but if he was, it might not be crazy to just walk away. He won't win in Shuster's district.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's some advice to the Republican's in the Pennsylvania state legislature: don't be greedy!  Your greediness cost you this past decade and you just gained back from the greediness in this wave election.  Shore up your gains and don't try to go after ANY more democrat seats.

I think the GOP will have problems as drawn.  They may have to toss Fitz, Gerlach, or Meehan to shore 2 of them up and throw one under the bus.

And they aren't doing that.

Me thinks the GOP will be greedy enough to ensure Democratic Congressional seats will cover every square inch east of the Susquehanna River in a reverse wave election.  Hey, it could happen.  The R strength in all districts isn't that strong as PA-5/9.

Flyers, you have no reason to think this. You haven't even heard credible redistricting rumors so you're just pulling stuff out of thin air.

As someone who has actually heard real rumors, the plans seem to be very fair and, if anything, somewhat generous to Dems.

And no, you aren't covering every square inch east of the Susquehanna. Are you out of your mind? Even in a reverse wave, you wouldn't possibly get every Republican seat. You aren't getting Platts' seat. You likely wouldn't even get Marino's seat in a reverse wave. You only won it in 2006 because Sherwood was scandal-plagued in the worst possible wave.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-brady-accused-of-complicity-with-gop/27137/


Brady is going to deliver votes in exchange for drawing his own district. Naturally its to ensure that the Philadelphia blacks are mostly in Fattah's district.

Haha, I wish this wasn't posted. I purposely avoided posting it because the legislative district in question is mine and I work for one of the people mentioned.

Everyone is obsessed with redistricting now so there are tons of rumors out there. Just to clear things up: Brady isn't going to deliver votes for the candidate in question if you're referring to the Council election. The candidate in question is going to win. Believe me.  Brady already knows that. There isn't a deal on that end. The real story here is this idea that Brady will see to it that a joke Democratic candidate will go up in the Special so the GOP keeps the seat and, in turn, the Republican members of the legislature draw him a favorable district.

Brady is getting a lot of push back on this on his side so I don't know how likely it is to happen. If such a deal with the state legislative leaders goes through, Brady becomes my Congressman.

[Keystone Phil]

He wants Northeast Philadelphia. His plan is to snake up along the Delaware River to get areas like mine. He wouldn't want Lower Merion/Montco because...eh...they aren't exactly Bob Brady type Democrats.    At least up here he'd have working class/union voters.

[Keystone Phil]

The district would look a lot like a telephone receiver - the bottom portion would have South Philly then a thin stretch of land would hug the river then the district would expand west again once it hit the Northeast.

[Keystone Phil]

Somebody get me out of Chaka freakin' Fattah's district -____-

...

You live in the Philly area?

[Keystone Phil]

Rumors that Republican bits of North Allegheny will go into Tim Murphy's district, making a combined PA-4/PA-12 easier for Altmire to win.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-pittsburgh’s-north-hills-may-not-end-up-in-the-4th-district/27501/

I wonder if his district is then going to end up even uglier than the current PA-12, going from the Ohio border to Johnstown and then back under PA-18 to the SW corner of the state.

That's strange. Murphy doesn't need those areas but we know how incumbents get around this time of the decade...

[Keystone Phil]

This is one state where I'm really interested in what the maps are going to look like eventually. When about can we expect maps?

We're running later that usual. I'm guessing we'll see something by the middle of October. Then we get the fun Supreme Court challenges! I'm just most concerned with our City Council redistricting (I might be thrown into a different district, which I really don't want) so I haven't been following this as closely.

[Keystone Phil]

Torie, your light green Bucks county district that snakes from lower Bucks to upper Bucks is certainly interesting. 

Which number is the light blue one that makes up most of Bucks county then weaves its way through Northeast Philly into North Philly? What are the Obama-McCain numbers, too? Surely an Obama district since you picked up North Philly. That district, along with the other Bucks district, would certainly be one of the more polarized districts in the state (and the country) considering the demographics.