2020 Redistricting Master Thread
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2020 Redistricting Master Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Redistricting Master Thread  (Read 20839 times)
Sestak
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« Reply #25 on: May 20, 2020, 06:44:29 PM »

Also, QOL request here. If you are going to post a map, don't just post the DRA link. Post an image as well so that those who are on mobile devices at the time are not totally in the dark, at least until said person returns to a computer.

Bumping this request- no context at all when reading a lot of these threads on mobile rn.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #26 on: June 09, 2020, 03:18:33 AM »

Is this the thread to predict the 2024 EV map?

I'll go with CNN's prediction: (states not listed have no change)
TX +3
FL +2
AZ, CO, MT, NC, OR: all +1

AL, CA, IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA, RI, WV: all -1
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #27 on: June 10, 2020, 09:17:37 PM »

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374399.0
Minnesota thread

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=377863.0
Connecticut thread
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lfromnj
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« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2020, 12:56:50 PM »

There isn't an Arkansas thread, you just linked to Arizona.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2020, 01:07:23 PM »

Is there a website where I can see the whole list of projected seats from reapportionment?

Like, what seat 1-435 and the next hypothetical seats are?
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Sestak
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« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2020, 12:49:05 AM »

Is there a website where I can see the whole list of projected seats from reapportionment?

Like, what seat 1-435 and the next hypothetical seats are?

Does the census release projections for the apportionment population of each state (different from normal population count bc of overseas voters etc.)?

Because if they do, I slapped together a super barebones Python program a little while ago that can generate those results if you want.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #31 on: July 17, 2020, 06:11:11 AM »

Is there a website where I can see the whole list of projected seats from reapportionment?

Like, what seat 1-435 and the next hypothetical seats are?

Does the census release projections for the apportionment population of each state (different from normal population count bc of overseas voters etc.)?

Because if they do, I slapped together a super barebones Python program a little while ago that can generate those results if you want.
They don't make estimates of the overseas population. The overseas population only includes federally-affiliated persons, mostly military along with dependents. 96% are military or their dependents (39% military, 57% dependents). The rest are mostly Department of State and Peace Corps.

Because they are mostly military their is a systematic bias towards the South. The Top 20 states in 2010 were:

TX 122
FL 99
CA 88
NY 43
GA 40
VA 37
IL 34
PA 33
OH 32
NC 30
TN 29
WA 29
MI 28
AL 23
MO 23
SC 21
LA 21
AZ 20
IN 18
OR 18

In the past Muon2 has made an adjustment for the overseas, I have not. The number of overseas military in 2020 may be about 1/2 of what it was in 2010. The ratio of dependents to military may be higher due to top locations of Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy permitting dependents.

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Epaminondas
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« Reply #32 on: August 02, 2020, 11:54:39 PM »

Does someone have an updated list of the congressional districts on the edge of being cut?

I keep hearing that Alabama's 7th is as good as gone, but on some map projections I find the state remains unchanged.
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MAPZZ
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« Reply #33 on: August 03, 2020, 12:21:13 PM »

Does someone have an updated list of the congressional districts on the edge of being cut?

I keep hearing that Alabama's 7th is as good as gone, but on some map projections I find the state remains unchanged.

It entirely depends on whether Trump's order to not include non-citizens in the count goes through or not. Whether or not the census is granted more time to gather data also matters a lot. Very up in the air right now, and people are making projections based on what they think will happen.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #34 on: August 04, 2020, 09:41:34 AM »

Does someone have an updated list of the congressional districts on the edge of being cut?

I keep hearing that Alabama's 7th is as good as gone, but on some map projections I find the state remains unchanged.
There are eight states in contention for the final four seats. Four will get a seat and four will not.

By current projections based on current estimates, Alabama would be 436th.

Imagine a marathon where a runner wants to finish in the top 435. You can look at previous years results and see that a time of 2:35:27 was good enough for 435th.

Ignoring differences in the weather conditions and the field, will 2:35:27 be good enough for 435th this year? It depends on the other runners. The runner from New York appears to be in great distress, and from time-to-time stops and puts his hands on his knees. The California runner was running at a good pace earlier in the race, but appears to be cramping, his stride imbalanced. Montana and Minnesota and Alabama are running at a fairly steady pace, but none are flashy runners. Montana had been close to 435th in the past, will this be their year? And Minnesota just barely hung on last year. Florida and Texas have a strong finish, will it be enough to get into the top 435?
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Sol
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« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2020, 04:21:19 PM »

Arkansas redistricting thread links to AZ.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #36 on: October 19, 2020, 04:23:33 PM »

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=381974.0

Here is the AR redistricting thread btw.
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Sestak
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« Reply #37 on: November 12, 2020, 11:52:50 AM »


Fixed. Also added links for NE, MN, CT. Only ones missing now (for congressional level) are HI (lol), ID, UT, and WV.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #38 on: February 14, 2021, 11:34:21 PM »

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=419452.0
WV thread missing from OP

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=419451.0
HI thread
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #39 on: April 26, 2021, 09:17:47 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2021, 09:23:51 PM by Kevinstat »

Rhode Island (non-congressional) [projected to fall to 1 seat]

The "(non-congressional)" and the "[projected to fall to 1 seat]" for Rhode Island should be removed from the OP now.  Of course I was as surprised about RI keeping it's second congressional seat as anyone.

And there's now a thread for it (congressional only, looks like, although that should be of most interest to most people on this forum) that should be added.
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #40 on: April 26, 2021, 09:22:16 PM »

Rhode Island (non-congressional) [projected to fall to 1 seat]

Only ones missing now (for congressional level) are HI (lol), ID, UT, and WV.

The "(non-congressional)" and the "[projected to fall to 1 seat]" for Rhode Island should be removed from the OP now.  Of course I was as surprised about RI keeping it's second congressional seat as anyone.

The only RI-specific redistricting thread I could find is this short one from 2014.  I imagine there was a thread about RI congressional redistricting in 2011-2012 though.

I already started one earlier today, actually. Will link it in there now.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #41 on: April 26, 2021, 09:24:49 PM »

Rhode Island (non-congressional) [projected to fall to 1 seat]

Only ones missing now (for congressional level) are HI (lol), ID, UT, and WV.

The "(non-congressional)" and the "[projected to fall to 1 seat]" for Rhode Island should be removed from the OP now.  Of course I was as surprised about RI keeping it's second congressional seat as anyone.

The only RI-specific redistricting thread I could find is this short one from 2014.  I imagine there was a thread about RI congressional redistricting in 2011-2012 though.

I already started one earlier today, actually. Will link it in there now.

I just noticed that and was in the process of editing my post when you replied.  Smiley
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #42 on: June 03, 2021, 03:59:01 PM »

If HR1 doesn't pass Rs aren't gonna hold a 5 seat Majority
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nclib
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« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2021, 10:31:27 PM »

Is there a way to put finished maps and data of each state in the same thread when their maps are complete? I'd rather not have to read through each state's 20-page thread.
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nclib
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2021, 06:47:59 PM »

Is there a way to put finished maps and data of each state in the same thread when their maps are complete? I'd rather not have to read through each state's 20-page thread.

Anyone? Or there a site that has this/will have this?
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bagelman
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« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2021, 09:14:43 PM »

TX:

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #46 on: November 08, 2021, 12:00:53 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2021, 12:05:02 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

Is there a way to put finished maps and data of each state in the same thread when their maps are complete? I'd rather not have to read through each state's 20-page thread.

Anyone? Or there a site that has this/will have this?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a62e2215-fe4e-478f-b8ac-fa604fdd1d33

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xyC1cksjyJJHSPyEZa4FiPExZ5anWCPRPyUJvAZzhqg/edit?usp=sharing

There’s a list of districts with 2020 partisanship on the second sheet

This help?

My thread “my redistricting tracker” I’m trying to update as soon as every new map comes out
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