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Author Topic: CA-20/SurveyUSA: Rep. Jim Costa (D) trailing by 10  (Read 2371 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 26, 2010, 01:39:46 am »
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52% Andy Vidak (R)
42% Jim Costa (D)

That's a big change from six weeks ago when a SurveyUSA Poll showed Costa holding a slim lead over his challenger. SurveyUSA Pollster Jay Leve, talked to us via Skype from his office in New Jersey, and explained it this way. "The data we gathered for you six weeks ago showed it to be a tight race. The data we gathered for you over the last three nights and released to you today shows if anything the momentum has moved toward the Republican against the Democrat and whatever battle Mr. Costa may have had six weeks ago he has a steeper battle tonight."

But Costa says the poll does not accurately reflect his support in the district. For example, Costa notes 40% of those surveyed were Republicans, while actually on 33% of the district's voters are Republicans. He also notes only 44% of those surveyed are Democrats, while 56% of the voters in the district are Democrats.

"They've over-sampled Republicans and they've under sampled Democrats and it doesn't reflect the ethnic breakdown of the district." Costa said.

52 percent of those surveyed were identified as white, while only 21 percent of the district is considered to be non-Hispanic white. 36 percent of those surveyed are Hispanic, while 63 percent of the district is Hispanic. But SurveyUSA Pollster Jay Leve defends the methodology saying Hispanic voter turnout is expected to be low. "I don't think it's likely Hispanic turnout will grow to 40% but if it does Mr. Costa definitely is the beneficiary of that.

Vidak is pleased with the result, but not surprised. "The trends have been going in our way the whole time. We've been attacked for awhile now we're up on the airwaves." He said.

http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=news/politics&id=7745442
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2010, 01:42:00 am »
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SurveyUSA will look like the biggest geniuses or the biggest idiots next week.
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2010, 02:12:48 am »
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SurveyUSA will look like the biggest geniuses or the biggest idiots next week.

They haven't been consistently Republican though. They have shown WA-2 to be back in the Democratic column for example. I suspect they are having a hard time figuring out Hispanic turnout in this district. That is all that really matters in this race.
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2010, 03:22:01 am »
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This is with the Hispanic share of the poll increasing. This one is real, guys.
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2010, 04:09:03 am »
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Hispanics making up 36% of the Voters in a district that is actually about 63% Hispanic is pretty reasonable.  California itself is about 38% Hispanic, and they make up only about 22-ish percent of voters.
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2010, 09:46:47 am »
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Couple of problems with this poll. The district is only 31% Republican, yet this poll has 40% Republicans and upped the amount of conservatives from the last poll.  It's very hard to trust SurveyUSA, they've been very messy this year.
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2010, 09:50:00 am »
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Couple of problems with this poll. The district is only 31% Republican, yet this poll has 40% Republicans and upped the amount of conservatives from the last poll.  It's very hard to trust SurveyUSA, they've been very messy this year.

Well, this is a midterm election in a Hispanic-majority district.  I wouldn't be all that surprised if Republicans wildly out-perform their numbers here.
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2010, 10:33:21 am »
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Couple of problems with this poll. The district is only 31% Republican, yet this poll has 40% Republicans and upped the amount of conservatives from the last poll.  It's very hard to trust SurveyUSA, they've been very messy this year.

Well, this is a midterm election in a Hispanic-majority district.  I wouldn't be all that surprised if Republicans wildly out-perform their numbers here.

Actually California is one of the few states where there is no enthusiasm gap, perhaps due to the marijuana legalization proposition.
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2010, 10:43:03 am »
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I've doubted SUSA before and lost money on those bets.  Doesn't mean it won't be different this time, but...
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2010, 10:48:32 am »
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Actually California is one of the few states where there is no enthusiasm gap, perhaps due to the marijuana legalization proposition.

Um ... if your proposed path to victory lies on the backs of stoners, well ...
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2010, 10:52:47 am »
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Actually California is one of the few states where there is no enthusiasm gap, perhaps due to the marijuana legalization proposition.

This is relevant in places like the bay area or west La. Prop 19 is certainly not going to close the enthusiasm gap in a Hispanic majority central valley district.
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2010, 10:52:57 am »
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Couple of problems with this poll. The district is only 31% Republican, yet this poll has 40% Republicans and upped the amount of conservatives from the last poll.  It's very hard to trust SurveyUSA, they've been very messy this year.

Well, this is a midterm election in a Hispanic-majority district.  I wouldn't be all that surprised if Republicans wildly out-perform their numbers here.

Actually California is one of the few states where there is no enthusiasm gap, perhaps due to the marijuana legalization proposition.

Well, I'm pretty sure that prop 19 is a much bigger draw in Santa Monica and San Jose rather than Bakersfield and Fresno.  Hispanics sometimes spectacularly under-perform their registration totals, and since this is a central valley district where considerable numbers of Hispanics have no intention of actually becoming US citizens, I wouldn't be surprised.

Anyone have the 2008 numbers for comparison?  Assuming the results are actually 50-40-10 Hispanic, White, and other, Costa still loses 48-46, and that's probably the best turnout numbers then Democrats could possible manage.  Whites are more Republican than Hispanics are Democrat in this district, which is the big reason why this race is a potential R pickup at all.
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2010, 10:56:56 am »
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Actually California is one of the few states where there is no enthusiasm gap, perhaps due to the marijuana legalization proposition.

Um ... if your proposed path to victory lies on the backs of stoners, well ...

The stoners are likely saving boxer and thus the senate for the democrats....so yeah.
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2010, 11:02:22 am »
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Actually California is one of the few states where there is no enthusiasm gap, perhaps due to the marijuana legalization proposition.

Um ... if your proposed path to victory lies on the backs of stoners, well ...

The stoners are likely saving boxer and thus the senate for the democrats....so yeah.

Kind of Ironic if you consider that Boxer herself opposes the measure.

I wonder what would have happened if Fiorina or Whitman came out in favor of the proposition.
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2010, 11:08:51 am »
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Kind of Ironic if you consider that Boxer herself opposes the measure.

I wonder what would have happened if Fiorina or Whitman came out in favor of the proposition.

It's more f'ed up than ironic. All major demcrats are against it and yet they are benefitting from it. I almost voted libertarian for attorney general in protest. 
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2010, 11:50:59 am »
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I have great difficulty in believing this poll, particularly with the recent Dem pickup among Hispanics in CA, and apparently a somewhat higher Hispanic turnout in the offing.
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2010, 08:20:24 pm »
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Personally doubt it, but the reasons the Republicans may do better here then usual should probably be well-known to most Californians here. One need only drive up and down Interstate 5 to see why.

« Last Edit: November 22, 2010, 01:14:54 pm by N!K »Logged

Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2010, 12:56:34 pm »
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Now we can safely say that this poll, along the Oregon one showing Schrader trailing by double digits, were some of the worst of the year.

Survey-USA hasn't embarrassed itself so much since the days of the Indiana/North Carolina primaries. They can thank Scotty's Hawaiian whopper for avoiding the Golden Raspberry.   
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

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