Couple of problems with this poll. The district is only 31% Republican, yet this poll has 40% Republicans and upped the amount of conservatives from the last poll. It's very hard to trust SurveyUSA, they've been very messy this year.
Well, this is a midterm election in a Hispanic-majority district. I wouldn't be all that surprised if Republicans wildly out-perform their numbers here.
Actually California is one of the few states where there is no enthusiasm gap, perhaps due to the marijuana legalization proposition.
Well, I'm pretty sure that prop 19 is a much bigger draw in Santa Monica and San Jose rather than Bakersfield and Fresno. Hispanics sometimes spectacularly under-perform their registration totals, and since this is a central valley district where considerable numbers of Hispanics have no intention of actually becoming US citizens, I wouldn't be surprised.
Anyone have the 2008 numbers for comparison? Assuming the results are actually 50-40-10 Hispanic, White, and other, Costa still loses 48-46, and that's probably the best turnout numbers then Democrats could possible manage. Whites are more Republican than Hispanics are Democrat in this district, which is the big reason why this race is a potential R pickup at all.
