VA-09: SurveyUSA: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) in big trouble

[Tender Branson]

47% (+6) Morgan Griffith (R)
46%  (-5) Rick Boucher (D)

Filtering: 800 registered voters with home telephones in Virginia's 9th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/21/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day 11/02/10.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ecc4d025-6c5e-4740-b77f-16b584e153fe&c=77

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, not good ...

[Dgov]

Looks like the Anti-Cap and Trade attacks are working for Griffith.  This would be a much better pickup for Republicans than the 11th district, which is something they'd basically have to replace after redistricting anyway.  They could hold this seat for a long time.

Actually, compared to the last poll of this race, the biggest swing has been in the Gen X voters, who went from +2 Boucher to +17 Griffith.  Also, Independents now favor the Challenger by 19 points after favoring Boucher by 10 last poll, which is partially offset buy the fact that the number of Republicans went down compared to the last sample.

[Sam Spade]

Exactly how many Dem seats am I going to have to put in toss-up?

[Meeker]

Ugh. Tuesday can't come quick enough.

[minionofmidas]

Uhha. Seeing as this is a race we previously figured well polled... bad news.

[Torie]

Another Blue Dog (yes, this one being a rather ersatz one), appears to be biting the dust. How many other than Holden will be left standing on Nov 3?  Maybe McMahon, assuming he qualifies as a Blue Dog, and Grumps' pal Altmire.

[Torie]

Exactly how many Dem seats am I going to have to put in toss-up?

Vepres managed to pare his number of toss ups on his list down to zero.

[rob in cal]

With the the Conservative/Liberal split of 49-12 for the seat, it makes sense that Boucher is in trouble.  This would be a nice pickup for GOP, as it would stay GOP, unlike some of their other potential pickups this year.  Also, nice to see that the independent candidate is getting votes from all over the political spectrum.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Ugh. Tuesday can't come quick enough.

Ha!  The GOP has the Dems for 6 whole more days of "play-time"!

[Lief 🗽]

Another Blue Dog (yes, this one being a rather ersatz one), appears to be biting the dust. How many other than Holden will be left standing on Nov 3?  Maybe McMahon, assuming he qualifies as a Blue Dog, and Grumps' pal Altmire.

Hopefully the Blue Dog caucus is thoroughly decimated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given that this has been polled quite frequently and that Boucher has always been well ahead this is quite an eye opener, yeah. Either it's an outlier or, well, oh sh!t.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another Blue Dog (yes, this one being a rather ersatz one), appears to be biting the dust. How many other than Holden will be left standing on Nov 3?  Maybe McMahon, assuming he qualifies as a Blue Dog, and Grumps' pal Altmire.

Hopefully the Blue Dog caucus is thoroughly decimated.

You only want 10% of them to lose?

[Lief 🗽]

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

The correct response to an act of crass pedantry is not to resort to a dictionary, but to mock the pedant. So. I win.

[Sam Spade]

Given that this has been polled quite frequently and that Boucher has always been well ahead this is quite an eye opener, yeah. Either it's an outlier or, well, oh sh!t.

I should mention that Dem/GOP house spending over the past couple of weeks has indicated that there is a lot of recent concern about all Dem incumbents in Appalachia generally.

[ajc0918]

Yep, the NRCC has already spent 1 million here.
Obviously they see their chances good.