PA: Reuters/Ipsos: Toomey 46% Sestak 46%

[mypalfish]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69P3OG20101026

[Meeker]

I give up.

[Keystone Phil]

It's a jungle out here.

[tokar]

(August 10th poll had Toomey +10 (47-37) and Corbett +15 (49-34).)

Today's poll says Corbett +6 (49-43) as well

Sample size is 600.  400 people identify themselves as LV.
Of the LV, the split is R+1 (46-45).
Of the RV, the split is D+10 (50-40)..
LV split 46-46.
RV go for Sestak at a 4 point clip (46-42).
Independents go for Sestak 31-23.
LV go for Corbett 49-43.
RV go for Onorato 46-43.
Independents are split 33-33 for both Gov cand's.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There is no way to read the Indy's accurately unless a separate poll of 300-500 PA indies is conducted. Otherwise with sub 10% intenrals you are talking 30-50 people tops.

Just as accurate would be to look at indies in other places and try to extrapolate some kind of trend factoring in any natural lean among those PA indies that have historically been exhibited over the years.

[Keystone Phil]

Independents going for Sestak by an eight point margin? Ok, guys, thank you.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

[Keystone Phil]

You can't get too excited. Sestak clearly isn't leading among Independents, let alone leading by eight. The poll is questionable.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

You can't get too excited. Sestak clearly isn't leading among Independents, let alone leading by eight. The poll is questionable.

The tracker is questionable too. It's especially dangerous to get caught up in crosstabs. I look forward to seeing further polling here.

[Keystone Phil]

You can't get too excited. Sestak clearly isn't leading among Independents, let alone leading by eight. The poll is questionable.

The tracker is questionable too. It's especially dangerous to get caught up in crosstabs. I look forward to seeing further polling here.

Sure. I think Quinnipiac had it right. It's probably a four to six point lead for Toomey.

[Tender Branson]

Still anything possible in this race ...