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| | | |-+  PA: Reuters/Ipsos: Toomey 46% Sestak 46%
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Author Topic: PA: Reuters/Ipsos: Toomey 46% Sestak 46%  (Read 696 times)
mypalfish
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« on: October 26, 2010, 12:20:43 pm »
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http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69P3OG20101026
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2010, 12:21:08 pm »
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I give up.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2010, 12:28:37 pm »
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It's a jungle out here.
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Grazie, Capitano!
tokar
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2010, 02:39:06 pm »
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(August 10th poll had Toomey +10 (47-37) and Corbett +15 (49-34).)

Today's poll says Corbett +6 (49-43) as well

Sample size is 600.  400 people identify themselves as LV.
Of the LV, the split is R+1 (46-45).
Of the RV, the split is D+10 (50-40)..
LV split 46-46.
RV go for Sestak at a 4 point clip (46-42).
Independents go for Sestak 31-23.
LV go for Corbett 49-43.
RV go for Onorato 46-43.
Independents are split 33-33 for both Gov cand's.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2010, 03:08:12 pm »
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There is no way to read the Indy's accurately unless a separate poll of 300-500 PA indies is conducted. Otherwise with sub 10% intenrals you are talking 30-50 people tops.

Just as accurate would be to look at indies in other places and try to extrapolate some kind of trend factoring in any natural lean among those PA indies that have historically been exhibited over the years.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2010, 03:14:22 pm »
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Independents going for Sestak by an eight point margin? Ok, guys, thank you.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2010, 03:36:50 pm »
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Smiley
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truth serum
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2010, 03:48:53 pm »
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Smiley

You can't get too excited. Sestak clearly isn't leading among Independents, let alone leading by eight. The poll is questionable.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2010, 03:51:24 pm »
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Smiley

You can't get too excited. Sestak clearly isn't leading among Independents, let alone leading by eight. The poll is questionable.

The tracker is questionable too. It's especially dangerous to get caught up in crosstabs. I look forward to seeing further polling here.
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truth serum
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2010, 03:53:06 pm »
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Smiley

You can't get too excited. Sestak clearly isn't leading among Independents, let alone leading by eight. The poll is questionable.

The tracker is questionable too. It's especially dangerous to get caught up in crosstabs. I look forward to seeing further polling here.

Sure. I think Quinnipiac had it right. It's probably a four to six point lead for Toomey.
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Grazie, Capitano!
Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2010, 12:39:32 am »
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Still anything possible in this race ...
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