KY-3/SUSA: Yarmuth (D) 50, Lally (R) 46
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  KY-3/SUSA: Yarmuth (D) 50, Lally (R) 46
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Author Topic: KY-3/SUSA: Yarmuth (D) 50, Lally (R) 46  (Read 854 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: October 26, 2010, 09:27:23 PM »

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20101026/NEWS0106/310260065/1008/NEWS01/Bluegrass+Poll++John+Yarmuth+leads+Todd+Lally+in+Louisville+s+3rd+District+House+race

Topline Results
Yarmuth 50 (+3)
Lally 46 (+1)
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2010, 09:33:55 PM »

If this poll is accurate, that is a very bad number for the Dems. Dick Morris may be right. Most of the GOP leaning PVI seats held by Dems appear to be gone, and now the GOP is in the hunt for a bunch of Dem PVI districts. This one is Dem +2%.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2010, 09:42:54 PM »

This poll is actually better for Yarmuth than the last SurveyUSA which only showed Yarmuth only up by two, so he'll be fine. With the Senate race at the top, there should be enough Democrats in Louisville turning out to keep Yarmuth in office.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2010, 08:45:17 AM »

Yeah, figures. He should be alright, but it'll be close.

If this poll is accurate, that is a very bad number for the Dems. Dick Morris may be right. Most of the GOP leaning PVI seats held by Dems appear to be gone, and now the GOP is in the hunt for a bunch of Dem PVI districts. This one is Dem +2%.

You can't extrapolate from constituency polling like that. It happens that this poll fits into a wider pattern (a terrifyingly large swing), but you can't go 'poll x in district y shows a swing of x, therefore all districts which are weaker than district y will fall'. That's placing more strain on pendulum theory than it can be expected to bear.

Now, you can look at constituency polling (so long as you trust it) and wonder... what other districts are like this one? Louisville is a large industrial city with a paradoxical history of recent Republican representation and poor labour relations. That kind of thing.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2010, 10:33:14 AM »

I look at everything Al.  However, Louisville does tend to move with the national trends, when there are national trends. So, this race being so tight (if it is), is reflective of that, along with a few dozen other seats that are in play solely because national issues, and Obama's persona, are what is driving this election more than individual personalities. Sure local stuff can move the numbers a bit.
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