Yeah, figures. He should be alright, but it'll be close.
If this poll is accurate, that is a very bad number for the Dems. Dick Morris may be right. Most of the GOP leaning PVI seats held by Dems appear to be gone, and now the GOP is in the hunt for a bunch of Dem PVI districts. This one is Dem +2%.
You can't extrapolate from constituency polling like that. It happens that this poll fits into a wider pattern (a terrifyingly large swing), but you can't go 'poll x in district y shows a swing of x, therefore all districts which are weaker than district y will fall'. That's placing more strain on pendulum theory than it can be expected to bear.
Now, you
can look at constituency polling (so long as you trust it) and wonder... what other districts are like this one? Louisville is a large industrial city with a paradoxical history of recent Republican representation and poor labour relations. That kind of thing.
