PA: CNN/Time: Toomey up 4

[Keystone Phil]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by CNN/Time on 2010-10-27

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, Undecided/Neither/"Other": 6%

Poll source URL: Full Poll Details

[tpfkaw]

CNN/Time = crap poll.  I suppose it's in range.

[Keystone Phil]

Again, this seems about right. I'll feel very confident about this one if Rasmussen and PPP put him up by the same amount.

[You kip if you want to...]

Who has the momentum?

[Smash255]

I could see those who aren't deemed as likely voters showing up.   The 8 point gap between registered and likely does seem a bit much, especially in a state like Pennsylvania where the Democrats have a very strong ground game.

[Keystone Phil]

Who has the momentum?

Honestly, I think it's with Toomey. Sestak got the coverage he needed out of those two or three polls to make it seem like this was going to be a nail biter. A good amount of Dems "came home" to Sestak but I think he has hit his high water mark.

[J. J.]

Who has the momentum?

Honestly, I think it's with Toomey. Sestak got the coverage he needed out of those two or three polls to make it seem like this was going to be a nail biter. A good amount of Dems "came home" to Sestak but I think he has hit his high water mark.

Agreed.  I'm wondering why Sestak was spending so much time in State College.

[tokar]

Who has the momentum?

Honestly, I think it's with Toomey. Sestak got the coverage he needed out of those two or three polls to make it seem like this was going to be a nail biter. A good amount of Dems "came home" to Sestak but I think he has hit his high water mark.

Agreed.  I'm wondering why Sestak was spending so much time in State College.

Because the district encompassing state college (Centre County) is pretty liberal.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=1
It was one of the few that went for Obama in the primary (by 20 points mind you).  Yes its only 24,000+ votes, but if he can get the young people there to vote and come out in droves, hell in a race like this a few thousand votes can make all the difference.

Also went pretty handily for Obama in the general (by ~12 points):
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=1&off=0&elect=0

It is a county that neither Kerry or Gore won (Clinton won with under 50% in both 92 and 96).  So the fact that a "liberal" (liberal in quotes because I don't consider Obama a true liberal contrary to what Fox News wants people to believe) can win in this central PA district pretty handily with more than 50% of the vote should give Sestak, who is generally thought of as more "conservative" (conservative in quotes because he is more liberal than people give him credit for), a pretty solid chance of winning that district.


On a side note...
Sestak does not necessarily need to run up the vote in Philadelphia county to win.  If he performs well in many districts, he should do well.

Casey won in PA with only 424,000+ votes (84.1% DEM, or 356,000+ dem votes)...as he won many other PA districts
Hoeffel lost in PA with 641,000+ votes (70.5% DEM, or 452,000+ dem votes)...as he won only 3 other districts (mind you this was a GOP year in 2004, and Specter was a favorite among AA's...but 100,000 votes in a state that Kerry won should get you close enough to win IF you win other districts in PA, which Hoeffel failed to do, including Delware county which went to Obama at 60+%).
Kink lost in PA with 526,000+ votes (75.7% DEM, or 398,000+ dem votes.  He was closer to beating Santorum than Hoeffel was to Specter.  Again, Kink failed to win many other districts, namely the PA suburbs).

And 1998...lol...Lloyd got drubbed with a vote total in Philadelphia county barely over 300,000, and didn't even break 60% (58.7% to be exact).


So in short, I think if Sestak breaks 75% in Philadelphia county with at least 600,000 votes, he would be in prime position to win in a close race like this.  If only 400,000-500,000 voters come out and he breaks 75%, he better hope he wins a few more counties around PA, including Centre county which I believe is within reach.  At 300,000-400,000, forget it, he would lose.

I can see 500,000-600,000 in Philadelphia.  And with an ultra-conservative like Toomey, I can see over 80% (what I can see and what will happen are two different things, obviously).
2004 and 1998 were low DEM % in Phila county because it was Snarlin' Arlen, who was a favorite among the Philadelphia locals.  2000 and 2006 were high % because of an ultra-conservative like Santorum.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak needs far more than 75% in Philly (especially in this type of year with such low turnout). The Dems need to break 80%. There's no question about that. As for raw turnout numbers, take a look at the absentee ballot returns in the city. I mentioned the other day that only 8,000 were returned. That's not good for the Dems.

I think Toomey will break 20% or get very, very close. You can continue to label him as an "ultra conservative" but that's not resinating. There are pockets of this city where Toomey will do well. His emphasis on fiscal issues plays far better with moderate Republicans in the downtown areas compared to someone like Santorum. Toomey will also get considerable support in the working/middle class areas of Northeast and South Philly because of anger with Obama/Pelosi/Dems in general.

Just for the record, Santorum did well here in 2000. I think he was around 25%. If a Republican nominee can hit that in Philly, they are on track to win comfortably (see Santorum's six point win in 2000).

[Eraserhead]

I'll take it. If the Democrats can actually turn some people out, Sestak might be able to win in a squeaker. Toomey by 2-4 still seems like the safer call for now though.

[Sbane]

Toomey only up by 4 and you call this a wave? Republicans are finished people.

[/mypaldouche]

[Brittain33]

Can anyone think of a time when RV and LV polls diverged so badly a few days before an election? When has this happened before?

[Smash255]

I still think its going to come down to suburban Philly margins

In 2004 Kerry won the main suburban counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) by 7% and won statewide by 2.5%.  That comes down to basically a 5% margin to win statewide.  Now Toomey likely does a little better out west than Bush did, and Philly proper might make a lower % of the electorate than in 2004, but 10 points is probably the magic number.  Sestak wins suburban Philly by 10 points he will likely win, if its in the 8-10 point range its pretty much a dead tossup, anything less than that he is in trouble.

[Sbane]

I still think its going to come down to suburban Philly margins

In 2004 Kerry won the main suburban counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) by 7% and won statewide by 2.5%.  That comes down to basically a 5% margin to win statewide.  Now Toomey likely does a little better out west than Bush did, and Philly proper might make a lower % of the electorate than in 2004, but 10 points is probably the magic number.  Sestak wins suburban Philly by 10 points he will likely win, if its in the 8-10 point range its pretty much a dead tossup, anything less than that he is in trouble.

Considering that PA-8 seems to be going Republican, as well as the open seat in PA-7, it's not looking good for Sestak wouldn't you say?

[tokar]

Sestak needs far more than 75% in Philly (especially in this type of year with such low turnout). The Dems need to break 80%. There's no question about that. As for raw turnout numbers, take a look at the absentee ballot returns in the city. I mentioned the other day that only 8,000 were returned. That's not good for the Dems.

I think Toomey will break 20% or get very, very close. You can continue to label him as an "ultra conservative" but that's not resinating. There are pockets of this city where Toomey will do well. His emphasis on fiscal issues plays far better with moderate Republicans in the downtown areas compared to someone like Santorum. Toomey will also get considerable support in the working/middle class areas of Northeast and South Philly because of anger with Obama/Pelosi/Dems in general.

Just for the record, Santorum did well here in 2000. I think he was around 25%. If a Republican nominee can hit that in Philly, they are on track to win comfortably (see Santorum's six point win in 2000).

It was a hair over 23%.  Not terrible, but I think his vote total was assisted by the name at the top of the ballot (which at the time WAS a strong name ).  If you put Gomer Pyle as the republican candidate in 2000 I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have broken 20%...heh.

Santorum was more assisted by the fact that Klink only won Phila. and the Pittsburgh suburbs (which was higher than usual for an unknown DEM candidate, since he was a pretty big public figure thanks to his newscasting days in the Pittsburgh area) and nothing else.
Santorum only won by 6.9 points.  Compare against Specter who won by 11.8 in 2004, and 16.5 in 1998.  Santorum won by 2.5 in 1994 (Phila. DEM vote was a hash under 75%, while Santorum was a bit over 23%), while Specter won by 2.8 in 1992 (Phila. DEM vote was a hash under 60%).

Just looking at the past six races, if the democratic candidate fails to do anything outside of Philadelphia and Allegheny counties, forget it.

2006 - Casey underperformed in Phila, but won a ridiculous number of non-Phila counties and won big
2004 - Hoeffel overperformed in Phila, but won nothing more than Phila and Allegheny and couple other Southwestern counties (barely) and was smoked.
2000 - Klink overperformed in Phila and Pittsburgh area, but failed to win a considerable number of counties and didn't lose by much
1998 - Lloyd underperformed in Phila, and won his rather small home county (Somerset) and got smoked.
1994 - Wofford overperformed in Phila and won a decent number of counties and lost marginally.
1992 - Yeakel underperformed in Phila. but won a good number of counties and barely lost in several others and lost marginally.

In sum, either Sestak will have to overperform in Phila. and win a good number of counties, or underperform in Phila and win many counties.

Personally I see him doing middle-of-the-road in Phila., something like 500,000 votes with 75% (I would consider anything under 75% or under 500,000 as underperforming, and 80% and 600,000+ as overperforming), and winning several counties in PA.  Realize that each of the Democratic candidates for Senate in the last 6 elections won their home districts rather handily:

2006 - Casey - Lackwanna, 69.94-30.54
2004 - Hoeffel - Philadelphia, 70.50-28.38 (which is pretty good considering Arlen's AA pull)
2000 - Klink - Allegheny, 54.21-43.77 (kind of low in number, but the county pulled MORE votes than Phila county, 565.2k to 526.6k, not to mention the fact that he won all the Pittsburgh area counties rather handily with more than 50% of the vote)
1998 - Lloyd - Somerset, 66.2-32.6
1994 - Wafford - mmm, hard to say.  President at Bryn Mawr College for 8 years (MontCo) and law in Philly for 6 (Phila.).  Lost MontCo rather close (45.3-50.5) but won Phila handily (74.4-23.1).
1992 - Yeakel - Wiki says Main Line, but I don't know where...can't make a case.
1988 - Vignola - Philadelphia, 60.1-38.8

So the fact that Sestak represents 7th district, which encompasses most of the population-heavy Delaware county, and the fact that he was also born in Secane (Delaware Co.) and currently lives there should assist him on Nov 2nd (in both Delaware and Phila co's).
In all likelyhood he should win the county with at least 55% of the vote.
2008 - 297,510
2006 - 207,586
2004 - 275,203
2000 - 237,286
1998 - 151,650
1996 - 234,748
1994 - 172,794
1992 - 247,470

I forsee a good 200,000+ votes.  And at 55% that translates into a ~20,000 vote margin.  Even in a low turnout year, being from the home county usually causes a vote surge (see 2000 with Klink and the vote surge in all Pittsburgh counties).

Side note:
Toomey was born in Rhode Island, and resides in Lehigh Co.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak isn't winning here with 500,000 votes and only get 75% of the vote.

Toomey was born in Rhode Island, and resides in Lehigh Co.

Yes, I know. Relevance?

[tokar]

I still think its going to come down to suburban Philly margins

In 2004 Kerry won the main suburban counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) by 7% and won statewide by 2.5%.  That comes down to basically a 5% margin to win statewide.  Now Toomey likely does a little better out west than Bush did, and Philly proper might make a lower % of the electorate than in 2004, but 10 points is probably the magic number.  Sestak wins suburban Philly by 10 points he will likely win, if its in the 8-10 point range its pretty much a dead tossup, anything less than that he is in trouble.

2008 - 4 subs + Phila - D+33.67 -> PA D+10.32
2008 - 4 subs only - D+15.56
2004 - 4 subs + Phila - D+26.15 -> PA D+2.5
2004 - 4 subs only - D+7.06
2000 - 4 subs + Phila - D+25.27 -> PA D+4.17
2000 - 4 subs only - D+5.27
1996 - 4 subs + Phila - D+25.54 -> PA D+9.2
1996 - 4 subs only - D+4.60

Clearly if Sestak wins the 4 suburbs by over 10 points he will be in a very good position.
Winning by between 5-10pts is not bad, but it doesnt seem to guarantee sh**t (in 2004 the margin went UP by nearly 2 points and the PA margin when down by 1.5 points).
Winning by under 5 points isnt necessarily bad as seen in 1996, of course this is the case if there is a third candidate to pull votes away from the republican. PA is unique this year in that voters only have the choice of D or R, no serious third party candidate for Senate.

[tokar]

Sestak isn't winning here with 500,000 votes and only get 75% of the vote.

Toomey was born in Rhode Island, and resides in Lehigh Co.

Yes, I know. Relevance?

I'm not suggesting that performance alone would win.  2004 Hoeffel pulled 641,000 and did 70% and lost.  As alluded to earlier, he won barely any counties.
I think if Sestak pulls 500,000 with 75% in Phila, he will win because I feel Sestak has a better chance at winning more counties than Hoeffel would ever dream of winning, namely Delaware by a wide margin, Montgomery, and Bucks...maybe not Chester.  And I think he will run up the total in Allegheny pretty well...he did particularly well there in the primary (not to mention the fact that Onorato is from there and is on the statewide ticket as well).

2006 - Santorum got smoked in Allegheny (home county).
2004 - Specter got smoked in Philadelphia.
2000 - Santorum got smoked in Allegheny.
1998 - Specter got smoked in Philadelphia.
1994 - Santorum got smoked in Allegheny.
1992 - Specter got smoked in Philadelphia.

Just sayin...

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, our Republican nominees have been from the two heaviest Dem counties in the state. Not relevant at all. Toomey will do very well in the Lehigh Valley.

Anyway, Sestak isn't winning by ten in all of the suburban counties. As we've seen in a recent poll, Sestak barely leads in his home Congressional district. He might not even win Bucks.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Yes, our Republican nominees have been from the two heaviest Dem counties in the state. Not relevant at all. Toomey will do very well in the Lehigh Valley.

Anyway, Sestak isn't winning by ten in all of the suburban counties. As we've seen in a recent poll, Sestak barely leads in his home Congressional district. He might not even win Bucks.

?

He led by almost 10 in his district before the Sestak surge happened.

[tokar]

Yes, our Republican nominees have been from the two heaviest Dem counties in the state. Not relevant at all. Toomey will do very well in the Lehigh Valley.

Anyway, Sestak isn't winning by ten in all of the suburban counties. As we've seen in a recent poll, Sestak barely leads in his home Congressional district. He might not even win Bucks.

It was a joke...I could see that the candidates were from the two most populous and democratic counties in the state...

Well, I am not sold on Toomey running up the total in Lehigh.  Lehigh (D+16.6) was more democratic in 2008 than both Chester (D+9.2) and Bucks (D+8.6).  In 2004 it was more democratic (+2.6) than Chester (-4.5) and less, marginally, than Bucks (+2.8 ).  Same story in 2000 (+1.0, -9.6, and +4.4).

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, our Republican nominees have been from the two heaviest Dem counties in the state. Not relevant at all. Toomey will do very well in the Lehigh Valley.

Anyway, Sestak isn't winning by ten in all of the suburban counties. As we've seen in a recent poll, Sestak barely leads in his home Congressional district. He might not even win Bucks.

?

He led by almost 10 in his district before the Sestak surge happened.

Wrong. A poll out showed him ahead by two or three. The poll I'm citing is on the forum. Which poll are you referring to?

[DrScholl]

At this point, I think Sestak is in the position to have a path to victory through good turnout, before he was too far back, but now the game is different.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Yes, our Republican nominees have been from the two heaviest Dem counties in the state. Not relevant at all. Toomey will do very well in the Lehigh Valley.

Anyway, Sestak isn't winning by ten in all of the suburban counties. As we've seen in a recent poll, Sestak barely leads in his home Congressional district. He might not even win Bucks.

?

He led by almost 10 in his district before the Sestak surge happened.

Wrong. A poll out showed him ahead by two or three. The poll I'm citing is on the forum. Which poll are you referring to?

This F&M one which is also on the forum: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/projects/elections/fivethirtyeight/F&M_PA7_1014.pdf

He led in PA-11 33-31 in this F&M poll as well: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/projects/elections/fivethirtyeight/F&M_PA11_1013.pdf

F&M blows but still, it looks like Sestak is going to clean up in his district.

He led 43-34 a week and a half before his surge.

[Smash255]

I still think its going to come down to suburban Philly margins

In 2004 Kerry won the main suburban counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) by 7% and won statewide by 2.5%.  That comes down to basically a 5% margin to win statewide.  Now Toomey likely does a little better out west than Bush did, and Philly proper might make a lower % of the electorate than in 2004, but 10 points is probably the magic number.  Sestak wins suburban Philly by 10 points he will likely win, if its in the 8-10 point range its pretty much a dead tossup, anything less than that he is in trouble.

2008 - 4 subs + Phila - D+33.67 -> PA D+10.32
2008 - 4 subs only - D+15.56
2004 - 4 subs + Phila - D+26.15 -> PA D+2.5
2004 - 4 subs only - D+7.06
2000 - 4 subs + Phila - D+25.27 -> PA D+4.17
2000 - 4 subs only - D+5.27
1996 - 4 subs + Phila - D+25.54 -> PA D+9.2
1996 - 4 subs only - D+4.60

Clearly if Sestak wins the 4 suburbs by over 10 points he will be in a very good position.
Winning by between 5-10pts is not bad, but it doesnt seem to guarantee sh**t (in 2004 the margin went UP by nearly 2 points and the PA margin when down by 1.5 points).
Winning by under 5 points isnt necessarily bad as seen in 1996, of course this is the case if there is a third candidate to pull votes away from the republican. PA is unique this year in that voters only have the choice of D or R, no serious third party candidate for Senate.

One thing to keep in mind is since 96 the suburbs have become more Democratic and the western portion of the state has become more Republican, so I think you need to concentrate on the more recent numbers.

In 04 the suburbs were 4.56 more Dem than the rest of the state, it was 5.24 in 2008.   So that puts it generally in the 5% range.  Add in western PA likely becoming more GOP and turnout which is more favorable to the GOP than 04 or 08 was you probably do need to add a few more points to the Philly suburbs than you would have needed in 04 or 08.  

With that being said the math becomes increasingly difficult for Toomey if he can't get within 10  in the core suburban counties.  Perhaps not impossible, but nonetheless very difficult.  Likewise once you get below a 5 point Sestak margin (and I would even 7 or 7.5 points due to the reasons mentioned earlier) the math becomes quite difficult for Sestak.  

Granted that doesn't mean if Sestak only wins the core Philly suburbs by 6 he is finished or if Toomey goes down there by 11 he is finished.  Not all swings are created equal, just because one area swings a few points one way or the other for one candidate doesn't mean a similar swing will be in another part of the state.    However if Toomey is losing the Philly suburbs by double digits that makes things very difficult for him, leaves him very little room for error, same thing if Sestak can't get above mid single digits in the core suburbs.