FL-25/Susquehanna: Dead heat

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Link.

David Rivera (R) - 44
Joe Garcia (D) - 43
Rolly Arrojo (Tea) - 6
Craig Porter (FL Whig) - 2

[Meeker]

Strange that the overall wave will be bigger than 2006 yet the party caught in the wave will actually be able to pick up a few seats this time around (not saying we'll win this one specifically but we'll pick up a few).

[rob in cal]

Obligatory  "once again it looks like Dems may benefit from a split right of center vote, and GOP should get behind instant or delayed runoff election reform"  comment.

[Dgov]

Strange that the overall wave will be bigger than 2006 yet the party caught in the wave will actually be able to pick up a few seats this time around (not saying we'll win this one specifically but we'll pick up a few).

Thought the flip side to that is that the Democrat's won't have any easy targets for 2012.  If they pickup IL-10, DE-AL, HI-1, and LA-2, I can't think of any races that would be an easy D pickup for 2012.

[ajc0918]

Republicans in Florida are outnumbering Dems in early/absentee voting by 250,000. Normally the democrats do well with early voting, this isn't good for any democrat in FL.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republicans in Florida are outnumbering Dems in early/absentee voting by 250,000. Normally the democrats do well with early voting, this isn't good for any democrat in FL.

I thought the opposite was true.
I remember back in 2008 everybody was saying how surprised they were by the fact that Democrats did better in early voting than Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Supposedly the Dems are holding off voting in case Crist or Meek drops out. Which seems unlikely at this point.

[East Coast Republican]

Supposedly the Dems are holding off voting in case Crist or Meek drops out. Which seems unlikely at this point.

That's a daily kos rumor.  I read it there myself.

[Vepres]

If this is within the margin of error, the Republican wins. It's just that kind of year.

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

Strange that the overall wave will be bigger than 2006 yet the party caught in the wave will actually be able to pick up a few seats this time around (not saying we'll win this one specifically but we'll pick up a few).

Thought the flip side to that is that the Democrat's won't have any easy targets for 2012.  If they pickup IL-10, DE-AL, HI-1, and LA-2, I can't think of any races that would be an easy D pickup for 2012.

Right there's no way any of the GOP candidates who get narrowly elected this year which will no doubt include a good chunk of far right nutjobs will lose in 2012 in many districts Obama will almost certainly carry.

If you're referring to only currently held Republican-held seats you should've been a bit more clear.

[Verily]

Strange that the overall wave will be bigger than 2006 yet the party caught in the wave will actually be able to pick up a few seats this time around (not saying we'll win this one specifically but we'll pick up a few).

Thought the flip side to that is that the Democrat's won't have any easy targets for 2012.  If they pickup IL-10, DE-AL, HI-1, and LA-2, I can't think of any races that would be an easy D pickup for 2012.

There are plenty of seats they will/might lose this year that will be obvious targets, e.g. PA-11, NJ-03, FL-08, FL-22, CA-11, OH-01, etc., etc.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Strange that the overall wave will be bigger than 2006 yet the party caught in the wave will actually be able to pick up a few seats this time around (not saying we'll win this one specifically but we'll pick up a few).

Thought the flip side to that is that the Democrat's won't have any easy targets for 2012.  If they pickup IL-10, DE-AL, HI-1, and LA-2, I can't think of any races that would be an easy D pickup for 2012.

There are plenty of seats they will/might lose this year that will be obvious targets, e.g. PA-11, NJ-03, FL-08, FL-22, CA-11, OH-01, etc., etc.

Plus we don't know how most districts will look like after redistricting.

[Dgov]

Strange that the overall wave will be bigger than 2006 yet the party caught in the wave will actually be able to pick up a few seats this time around (not saying we'll win this one specifically but we'll pick up a few).

Thought the flip side to that is that the Democrat's won't have any easy targets for 2012.  If they pickup IL-10, DE-AL, HI-1, and LA-2, I can't think of any races that would be an easy D pickup for 2012.

There are plenty of seats they will/might lose this year that will be obvious targets, e.g. PA-11, NJ-03, FL-08, FL-22, CA-11, OH-01, etc., etc.

Let me rephrase that--No seats that will be DOA for the GOP.  Each one of those seats that you listed above the GOP could very reasonably be expected to hold in 2012.  The most Democratic seat i think the Republicans could wind up with on November 3rd is AZ-7, and Mclung is probably going to get drawn out of that one in order to make a 3rd Hispanic-majority district.

Most of the GOP pickups this year are in Republican-leaning or swing districts.  We don't have any hail mary shots where we could pick off heavily Democratic seats because of terrible incumbents like we did in LA-2 in 2008.